Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction: Can the Underdogs Shock the League Leaders?

When Ajax hosts NEC Nijmegen on May 11, 2025, at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, the betting odds and league standings paint a clear picture: this is a matchup between the Eredivisie’s top side and a team fighting to stay clear of relegation worries. Our Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction dives into the stats, recent form, and market trends to uncover the smartest bets for this late-season encounter.

Setting the Stage: A Tale of Two Campaigns

Ajax enters this fixture in imperious form, sitting atop the Eredivisie with 74 points from 31 games. Their squad, valued at a staggering €203.55 million, has been a cut above the competition, blending attacking flair with defensive solidity. Meanwhile, NEC Nijmegen languishes in 13th place with just 34 points, their €34.25 million squad highlighting the gulf in resources between these sides.

• Ajax: 74 points, 1st place, €203.55m squad value


• NEC Nijmegen: 34 points, 13th place, €34.25m squad value

The bookmakers reflect this disparity, pricing Ajax as heavy favorites at 1.22 for a home win. A draw sits at 6.5, while an NEC victory is a distant 12.0. But do the underlying stats support these betting odds, or is there value in backing an upset?

Why Ajax is the Smart Bet

NerdyTips’ top recommendation for this match is straightforward: back Ajax to win (1) at 1.22, with a trust rating of 12.0/10. Here’s why this Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction holds weight:

1. Home dominance: Ajax has lost just once at home this season, and Eredivisie home teams win 44.5% of matches.


2. Recent form: Their 2-0 away win over PSV Eindhoven (odds: 5.05) showcased their ability to rise to big occasions.


3. Statistical edge: Ajax averages 67% possession and 18 shots per game, while NEC manages just 33% possession and 7 shots.

Even NEC’s recent 0-0 draw away to Feyenoord (odds for NEC win: 6.0) shouldn’t deter bettors. Such results are outliers—Ajax’s firepower and home advantage make them the safest pick.

Goals Galore? Analyzing the Over/Under Market

With over 2.5 goals landing in 57.7% of Eredivisie matches and both teams scoring in 53.3%, the total goals market offers intriguing possibilities. The over 2.5 goals bet (odds: 1.48, trust rating: 1.7) aligns with the league’s high-scoring tendencies.

• Ajax’s expected stats: 18 shots (4 on target), 9 corners


• NEC’s expected stats: 7 shots (1 on target), 2 corners

While NEC held Ajax to a 2-2 draw in their last head to head (February 2024), Ajax’s superior shot volume and home crowd should tip the scales. A 2-1 Ajax win (half-time: 1-0) feels probable, blending their attacking prowess with NEC’s occasional resistance.

Referee and Discipline

Referee S. Gözübüyük will oversee the match, with projections suggesting just 1 yellow card for Ajax and 3 for NEC. This hints at a relatively clean game, though NEC’s higher foul count could disrupt their rhythm.

Final Thoughts: Trust the Numbers

While football loves an underdog story, the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction leans heavily toward the hosts. Ajax’s squad depth, home record, and league-wide trends (78.3% of games see over 1.5 goals) make them the logical pick. For bettors, the home win at 1.22 and over 2.5 goals at 1.48 are the standout choices—backing the stats rarely disappoints.