Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

Alaves vs Valencia Prediction: Stats, Tactics, and Best Bets for October 20

The Alaves vs Valencia prediction for October 20, 2025, is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing fixtures in Matchweek 9 of La Liga. With both sides sitting in the lower half of the table and only a handful of points separating them, this encounter at Estadio de Mendizorroza could have a significant impact on their season paths. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, there’s plenty to unpack—so let’s dive into the tactics, team news, and what our AI expects from this contest.

Team Form, Tactics, and Recent Head to Head

Alaves, currently 10th with 11 points, have been quietly effective under Eduardo Coudet. Their approach blends defensive discipline with just enough attacking intent to keep opponents honest. In their last six matches, Alaves have managed two wins, two draws, and two losses, averaging 1.17 goals scored and conceding just one per game. Their home form is particularly impressive: unbeaten in seven of their last eight at Mendizorroza, though their most recent three home games have been a mixed bag.

Valencia, on the other hand, are languishing in 15th with 8 points. Carlos Corberán Vallet’s side have struggled to find consistency, especially on the road. Their away form is a concern for fans and punters alike—winless in 12 of their last 15 away games. While they’ve averaged a slightly better 1.5 goals per game over their last six, their defense has been porous, conceding 14 goals in just eight matches. If there’s a silver lining, it’s their ability to surprise big teams, as seen in their shock 2-1 win at Real Madrid earlier this year.

The head to head record between these teams is surprisingly balanced. In their last 20 meetings, both Alaves and Valencia have secured 8 wins apiece, with 4 draws. Alaves have taken four of the last six encounters, including a 1-0 win in May 2025. This recent dominance, especially at home, gives them a psychological edge.

Injury News and Squad Value

Both squads are feeling the pinch of injuries. Alaves are missing several key players, including Mariano Diaz and Moussa Diarra, while Toni Martinez and others remain doubtful. Valencia’s absentees include Mouctar Diakhaby and Largie Ramazani, with José Gayà and D. Foulquier also struggling for fitness. Interestingly, despite Valencia’s much higher squad value (€166.60m to Alaves’ €70.40m), it’s the hosts who look more stable heading into this tie.

Betting Odds, AI Predictions, and Best Tips

Now, let’s get to what most readers are here for: the Alaves vs Valencia prediction from our AI, plus the best betting odds and tips. The market currently favors Alaves with odds of 2.4 for a home win, 3.05 for a draw, and 3.28 for a Valencia victory. Our AI strongly suggests a 1X bet (home win or draw) at odds of 1.36, with a trust rating of 8.1/10—making it a solid pick for those looking to minimize risk.

For the more adventurous, the 1x2 market prediction is a straight home win (1) with a confidence of 6.9 and odds of 2.4. The data backs this up: Alaves’ home resilience, Valencia’s away woes, and recent head to head results all point in the same direction.

If you’re eyeing the total goals market, under 2.5 goals is projected as a strong play, with a confidence of 2.6 and odds of 1.5. Both teams have struggled to rack up big scores, and with both missing attacking options, a low-scoring affair seems likely. The predicted final score? A tidy 2:0 for Alaves, with a goalless first half expected.

Key Stats and What to Expect

• Ball possession: Alaves 54%, Valencia 46%—expect the hosts to control the tempo.
• Total shots: Alaves 13, Valencia 9—suggesting more attacking intent from the home side.
• On-target shots: 4 for Alaves, 3 for Valencia—chances will be at a premium.
• Corners: 7 for Alaves, 4 for Valencia—set pieces could be decisive.
• Yellow cards: 1 apiece—discipline is unlikely to be a major issue.

Final Thoughts: Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

All signs point toward a narrow but confident home win in our Alaves vs Valencia prediction. The hosts’ strong home form, Valencia’s travel sickness, and the recent head to head record all suggest that Alaves are the safer bet. With both teams missing key players and struggling for attacking fluency, under 2.5 total goals also looks like a smart play. Whether you’re betting or just watching, expect a tactical battle with Alaves edging it—2:0 the likely outcome.