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Match Prediction

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Cali Prediction

Finished
Colombia flag Colombia
Primera A

Alianza P

€6.93m

11 May17:00
2 : 0

Deportivo Cali

€9.35m

Preview

Alianza P vs Deportivo Cali Prediction Primera A

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Cali Prediction: A Tight, Tense Affair on the Cards

When Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Cali kicks off at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau this weekend, don’t expect fireworks. The betting odds and stats scream one thing: a cagey, low-scoring battle. Our Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Cali prediction leans heavily toward under 2.5 goals (odds: 1.45, confidence: 8.2/10), with a likely 1-0 home win. But why? Let’s break it down like a seasoned fan dissecting the game over a pint.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Why Under 2.5 Goals is the Smart Pick

First, the cold, hard stats. The Primera A is a league where defenses often rule:

  • Home teams win 41.3% of the time—good news for Alianza, priced at 2.4 for victory.
  • Away wins? Just 20.8%. Deportivo Cali’s odds of 3.24 reflect that.
  • Draws happen 37.9% of the time (2.88 odds), but recent form suggests otherwise.
Both teams are coming off surprising 0-0 draws—Alianza against Jaguares (5.7 odds for a win) and Deportivo Cali against Independiente Medellín (6.5 odds). Defensive resilience? Check. Struggles in front of goal? Double-check.

Expected Match Dynamics: Possession, Shots, and a Lack of Firepower

The AI predicts a near-even possession split (49% vs 51%), but here’s the kicker:

  • Alianza: 14 total shots, 3 on target.
  • Deportivo Cali: 9 total shots, 3 on target.
That’s a combined 6 shots on target—hardly the stuff of goal-fests. Add in just 8 total corners (5 for Alianza, 3 for Cali), and you’ve got a game likely to be decided by a single moment of quality (or a defensive blunder).

Head-to-Head History: The 3-3 Anomaly vs Reality

Their last meeting in January 2024 was a bonkers 3-3 draw—a rare exception in this fixture. Normally, these two play it safe:

  • Both teams scored in just 41.4% of Primera A matches this season.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in only 34.4% of league games.
  • Over 3.5 goals? A measly 16.6%.
So while that 3-3 thriller lives in memory, the smart money says this one’s going back to the usual script: tight, tense, and low on total goals.

Betting Markets: Home Slight Favorite, But Goals Are the Play

The 1x2 market gives Alianza a slight edge (2.4 odds, confidence: 2.0), but the real value lies in the under 2.5 goals market. Here’s why:

  1. Defensive form: Both teams kept clean sheets last time out.
  2. Shot efficiency: Just 3 on target each? Goals will be scarce.
  3. Historical trends: The league favors low-scoring games.
Even the predicted scoreline (1-0, HT 0-0) hints at a grind. And with Deportivo Cali expected to pick up more yellow cards (2 vs Alianza’s 1), this could get scrappy.

Final Verdict: Keep Calm and Bet Under

For our Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Cali prediction, we’re backing the data: a low-scoring, home-leaning affair. The betting odds suggest value in Alianza at 2.4, but the under 2.5 goals (1.45) is the banker. Expect a nervy 90 minutes, a single goal deciding it, and possibly a few frayed tempers. Bring the popcorn—just don’t expect a feast.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Alianza P vs Deportivo Cali

U2.5 -222

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -222
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 140

Alianza P is expected to win with odds of 140
1/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -222

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

No -147

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U3.5 -149

Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

49%
Ball Possession
51%
14
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.7
Total Goals
1.5
0.6
Goals Scored
0.7
1.1
Goals Against
0.8
48%
Possession
54%
12
Total Shots
10
3.2
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots off Goal
4.8
11.1
Fouls
12.3
4.7
Corners
3.3
1.4
Offsides
1.7
2
Yellow Cards
2.67
0.11
Red Cards
0
330
Total Passes
377

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
2
6
Over 1.5 Goals
6
3
Over 2.5 Goals
1
0
Over 3.5 Goals
1
2
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Alianza Petrolera
7 - 6 - 7
Deportivo Cali
Alianza Petrolera Alianza P 11-May-25
2:0
Deportivo Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali Deportivo 23-Jul-24
1:0
Alianza P Alianza Petrolera
Alianza Petrolera Alianza P 27-Jan-24
3:3
Deportivo Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali Deportivo 02-Oct-23
1:0
Alianza P Alianza Petrolera
Alianza Petrolera Alianza P 22-Apr-23
0:3
Deportivo Deportivo Cali
Alianza Petrolera Alianza P 20-Aug-22
4:4
Deportivo Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali Deportivo 20-Feb-22
1:1
Alianza P Alianza Petrolera
Alianza Petrolera Alianza P 24-Aug-21
2:3
Deportivo Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali Deportivo 23-Feb-21
1:1
Alianza P Alianza Petrolera
Deportivo Cali Deportivo 27-Sep-20
2:0
Alianza P Alianza Petrolera

Colombia - Primera A Colombia - Primera A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Independiente Medellin Independiente 20
46-28
40
2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolim20
29-17
38
3 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacio20
38-24
37
4 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga20
31-20
37
5 Junior Junior20
35-25
35
6 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC20
25-19
35
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe20
21-17
31
8 America de Cali America de Cal20
23-19
29
9 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrol20
24-22
29
10 Rionegro Aguilas Rionegro Aguil20
29-27
27
11 Once Caldas Once Caldas20
21-24
27
12 Millonarios Millonarios20
23-26
26
13 Llaneros Llaneros20
17-25
25
14 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali20
22-28
21
15 Union Magdalena Union Magdalen20
22-32
21
16 Envigado Envigado20
18-22
20
17 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Past20
26-28
19
18 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pere20
19-36
18
19 Chico Chico20
14-29
16
20 La Equidad La Equidad20
14-29
14
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