AS Roma welcomes FC Porto to the Stadio Olimpico on February 20, 2025, for what promises to be a thrilling UEFA Europa League clash. With kickoff set for 17:45 UTC, all eyes will be on the Giallorossi as they look to capitalize on home advantage.

Let’s talk numbers. The odds favor a home win at 1.82, while a draw sits at 3.60, and an away victory is priced at 4.40. Our AI is backing AS Roma to win with a confidence rating of 8.2/10, making this our bet of the day. Given Roma’s strong home record and Porto’s struggles on the road, this looks like a solid pick.

Expect a tight, low-scoring affair, with our prediction leaning towards under 3.5 goals (odds: 1.28, trust level: 7.8/10). A 1-0 win for Roma is on the cards, with a goalless first half before the hosts break the deadlock in the second.

Possession-wise, Roma is expected to dominate with 59%, while Porto will have to make do with 41%. The hosts should register 16 shots (5 on target), compared to Porto’s 9 shots (only 1 on target). Corners? We’re looking at 5 for Roma and 2 for Porto. Discipline could play a role too, with 2 yellow cards for Roma and 3 for Porto.

While Porto boasts a slightly higher squad value (€303.10m vs Roma’s €284.50m), history favors the home side. In the Europa League, home teams win 50.4% of the time, while away victories happen in just 28.4% of matches.

Roma’s recent 2-2 away draw against Bayer Leverkusen (despite odds of 5.84 for a win) shows they can perform under pressure. But at home, they should be even stronger.

Final verdict? Back Roma to win at 1.82. If you’re looking for a safer bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.28 is a solid option. Expect a cagey battle, but the Italians should edge it.