As Athletic Club prepares to host Plzen at the iconic San Mamés Barria on January 30, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, all eyes are on the home team to secure a win. With odds of 1.68 for a home victory, Athletic Club is favored to dominate, thanks to their significantly higher squad value of €354.20m compared to Plzen's €50.85m. This financial muscle often translates into on-field prowess, making the home win the best tip with a confidence rating of 6.3/10.

Historically, home teams in the UEFA Europa League have a winning percentage of 50.1%, which bodes well for Athletic Club. The expected possession stats further underscore this, with Athletic Club predicted to control the ball 66% of the time. This dominance should lead to more opportunities, with an anticipated 16 shots compared to Plzen’s 11. The home side is also expected to win 6 corners, doubling Plzen’s expected count of 2.

However, bettors should approach the under 2.5 goals market with caution. Despite the odds of 1.65, the confidence level is a moderate 2.3. The predicted final score of 1:0 suggests a tight match, with the first half likely ending goalless. Given Plzen’s surprising away win against Eintracht Frankfurt last September, where they scored three goals, dismissing their attacking potential could be risky.

While a draw at odds of 3.5 might tempt some, especially considering the 21.3% draw rate in past matches, the strategic focus should remain on the home win. Plzen’s odds of 5.25 reflect their underdog status, but their previous upset shows they can defy expectations.

In conclusion, the data-driven approach points towards an Athletic Club victory with a low-scoring affair. Bettors should consider the home win as the primary bet, while keeping an eye on the under 2.5 goals market for added value. As always, betting should be approached with careful consideration of the odds and statistics.