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Match Prediction

Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction

Finished
England flag England
League One

Bolton

€13.12m

3 May10:00
1 : 1

Stevenage

€5.07m

Preview

Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction League One

Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction: Can the Hosts Edge a Tight Contest?

It’s that time again—another weekend of League One drama, and this one pits Bolton vs Stevenage in what promises to be a fascinating battle at the Toughsheet Community Stadium. With Bolton sitting 8th (67 points) and Stevenage 14th (56 points), there’s more than just pride on the line. The betting tips are already buzzing, and the stats tell a compelling story. So, grab your coffee, settle in, and let’s break it all down.

The Stakes: Playoff Dreams vs Mid-Table Comfort

Bolton, just outside the playoff spots, will see this as a must-win to keep their promotion hopes alive. Stevenage, comfortably mid-table, might play with less pressure—but that could make them dangerous. The head-to-head history adds spice, but the numbers suggest a game where patience could be key.

Key Stats at a Glance

  • Odds: Bolton win (2.05), Draw (3.4), Stevenage win (3.4)
  • AI’s Best Bet: Under 3.4 goals (1.28 odds, 5.7/10 confidence)
  • Projected Score: 1-0 to Bolton (HT 0-0)
  • Possession: 61% Bolton, 39% Stevenage
  • Shots: Bolton 16 (3 on target), Stevenage 10 (2 on target)
  • Corners: Bolton 6, Stevenage 3
  • Discipline: 2 yellow cards each

Why the Stats Favor a Low-Scoring Affair

League One this season has been a mixed bag: 41.2% home wins, 29.7% away wins, and 29.1% draws. But here’s the kicker—only 24.4% of games see over 3.4 goals. That’s why NerdyTips’ AI leans heavily toward under 3.4 goals as the smart pick. With Bolton’s tighter defense and Stevenage’s pragmatic approach, a goal-fest seems unlikely.

Bolton’s squad value (€13.12m) dwarfs Stevenage’s (€5.07m), but money doesn’t always talk on the pitch. Remember their gritty 1-1 draw at Sheffield Wednesday last March? They defied 5.0 odds that day. This team knows how to grind.

Betting Tips: Where’s the Value?

The AI’s Bolton vs Stevenage prediction suggests backing Bolton to avoid defeat (1X at 1.28 odds). Given their home advantage and Stevenage’s struggles on the road, it’s a sensible call. But if you’re feeling bold, the 1-0 correct score (heavily implied by the data) could offer juicy returns.

Quick Betting Takeaways

  1. Safety First: Bolton 1X (1.28) – Low risk, solid reward.
  2. Best Value: Under 3.4 goals (1.28) – Fits the league’s trend.
  3. Dark Horse: 1-0 Bolton – The stats scream it.

Final Thoughts: A Game of Patience

This won’t be a thriller, but it’ll be tactical. Bolton’s possession dominance (61%) and higher shot count hint at control, but Stevenage’s resilience could keep it tight. For bettors, the head-to-head stats and league trends all point to one conclusion: a narrow, low-scoring Bolton win. So, if you’re tuning in at 15:00 GMT, don’t expect fireworks—just a well-fought battle where one moment might decide it all.

Whatever you wager, enjoy the game. And hey, if it finishes 1-0, remember where you heard it first!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Meaningless match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Bolton vs Stevenage

U3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -357
5/10

1x2 Tip

1X -333

Bolton to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No -105

At least one team is not expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -192

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

61%
Ball Possession
39%
16
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
3
6
Corners
3
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.7
Total Goals
2.2
0.9
Goals Scored
0.8
1.8
Goals Against
1.4
61%
Possession
42%
14.4
Total Shots
10.1
3.1
Shots on Goal
2.8
6.1
Shots off Goal
4.1
10.4
Fouls
10.9
6.3
Corners
3.9
2.1
Offsides
2.8
1.38
Yellow Cards
1.86
0
Red Cards
0
448
Total Passes
282

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
2
6
Over 1.5 Goals
6
4
Over 2.5 Goals
4
3
Over 3.5 Goals
2
5
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Bolton
4 - 2 - 0
Stevenage
Bolton Bolton 03-May-25
1:1
Stevenage Stevenage
Stevenage Stevenage 29-Oct-24
1:4
Bolton Bolton
Stevenage Stevenage 29-Mar-24
0:0
Bolton Bolton
Bolton Bolton 03-Oct-23
3:2
Stevenage Stevenage
Bolton Bolton 13-Feb-21
1:0
Stevenage Stevenage

Profile time Recent Matches of Bolton

09 Dec Mansfield Mansfield.
-
Bolton. Bolton
06 DecL Swindon Swindon.
4:0
Bolton. Bolton
02 DecW Bolton Bolton.
3:0
Bradford Cit. Bradford City

Profile time Recent Matches of Stevenage

09 DecStevenage Stevenage.
-
Cardiff.Cardiff
02 DecLStevenage Stevenage.
1:2
Walsall.Walsall

England - League One England - League One

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Birmingham Birmingham46
84-31
111
2 Wrexham Wrexham46
67-34
92
3 Stockport County Stockport Coun46
72-42
87
4 Charlton Charlton46
67-43
85
5 Wycombe Wycombe46
70-45
84
6 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient46
72-48
78
7 Reading Reading46
68-57
75
8 Bolton Bolton46
67-70
68
9 Blackpool Blackpool46
72-60
67
10 Huddersfield Huddersfield46
58-55
64
11 Lincoln Lincoln46
64-56
61
12 Barnsley Barnsley46
69-73
61
13 Rotherham Rotherham46
54-59
59
14 Stevenage Stevenage46
42-50
57
15 Wigan Wigan46
40-42
56
16 Exeter City Exeter City46
49-65
56
17 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town46
60-73
54
18 Peterborough Peterborough46
68-81
51
19 Northampton Northampton46
48-66
51
20 Burton Albion Burton Albion46
49-66
47
21 Crawley Town Crawley Town46
57-83
46
22 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers46
44-76
43
23 Cambridge United Cambridge Unit46
45-73
38
24 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury46
41-79
33
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