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Match Prediction

Envigado vs Fortaleza FC Prediction

Finished
Colombia flag Colombia
Primera A

Envigado

€6.28m

12 Jul17:10
0 : 1

Fortaleza FC

€5.90m

Preview

Envigado vs Fortaleza FC Prediction Primera A

Envigado vs Fortaleza FC Prediction: A Relegation Scrap with Surprising Potential

When Envigado vs Fortaleza FC meet at Estadio Polideportivo Sur on July 12, it won’t be a glamorous duel—but it might just be one of the most intriguing battles of the Primera A matchday. Two sides languishing in the relegation mire, separated by just two points and a whisper of squad value (€6.28m vs €5.90m), will throw everything into a game that could define their seasons. The head-to-head history leans slightly toward Fortaleza after their 1-0 win last August, but recent form suggests this could be anyone’s fight.

Underdogs with Bite: Why This Game Defies Expectations

Neither team has been a model of consistency, but their recent shocks tell a story. Envigado’s 2-1 away win at Alianza (priced at 6.0 betting odds) and Fortaleza’s 0-2 triumph over Once Caldas (5.2 odds) prove these sides pack a punch when underestimated. The stats, however, paint a tighter picture:

  • Possession: Forecast at 49%-51%, this won’t be a game of dominance but of moments.
  • Expected shots: Fortaleza edge it (15 vs 11), but Envigado’s defense (predicted 1-0 scoreline) could blunt their attack.
  • Discipline: With 4 vs 2 expected yellow cards, Envigado’s aggression might backfire.

The xG Poetry of a Low-Scoring Affair

If you’re hoping for a goal fest, the numbers deliver a statistical gut punch. Only 34.6% of Primera A games exceed 2.5 total goals, and the AI gives an 8.0/10 confidence rating to the ‘Under 2.5’ tip at 1.49 odds. A 0-0 halftime score is also likely, reflecting both teams’ cautious starts. Fortaleza’s slight edge in on-target attempts (3 vs 2) might not matter if Envigado’s backline holds firm—something they’ve managed better at home.

Home Comfort vs Away Woes: The Deciding Factor?

Envigado’s 41.3% home win rate contrasts starkly with Fortaleza’s 21.1% away record, making the hosts slight favorites at 2.67 odds (though with a modest 1.4 trust rating). Set pieces could tilt the balance: Fortaleza are predicted to win 7 of the 11 corners, a potential lifeline given their aerial threat. But with no referee assigned yet, the physical battle—and those looming yellow cards—could rewrite the script.

Final Thoughts: A Game of Fine Margins

This isn’t just a relegation scrap; it’s a test of nerve. The Envigado vs Fortaleza FC prediction hinges on who blinks first. Will Envigado’s home grit prevail, or can Fortaleza’s set-piece savvy steal the points? One thing’s certain: with so much at stake, expect fireworks—even if the total goals stay low.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Envigado vs Fortaleza FC

U2.5 -204

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -204
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 167

Envigado is expected to win with odds of 167
1/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -204

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

No -145

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U3.5 -128

Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

49%
Ball Possession
51%
11
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots Off Goal
6
4
Corners
7
4
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.5
Total Goals
1.7
1.2
Goals Scored
1.2
1.3
Goals Against
0.5
47%
Possession
49%
9.5
Total Shots
13.8
3.2
Shots on Goal
3.5
4.2
Shots off Goal
6.2
14.7
Fouls
10.7
3.7
Corners
6
1.7
Offsides
1.7
4.17
Yellow Cards
1.67
0
Red Cards
0.17
272
Total Passes
349

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
7
Over 1.5 Goals
6
5
Over 2.5 Goals
2
1
Over 3.5 Goals
1
5
Both Teams Scored
2
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Envigado
2 - 2 - 1
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 29-Jan-25
0:0
Envigado Envigado
Envigado Envigado 03-Aug-24
0:1
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 04-Feb-24
1:1
Envigado Envigado
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 15-Sep-16
1:2
Envigado Envigado
Envigado Envigado 10-Apr-16
4:0
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC

Profile time Recent Matches of Envigado

Profile time Recent Matches of Fortaleza FC

03 DecLFortaleza Fortaleza.
1:2
Santa Fe.Santa Fe
30 NovLFortaleza Fortaleza.
0:2
Bucaramanga.Bucaramanga

Colombia - Primera A Colombia - Primera A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Independiente Medellin Independiente 20
46-28
40
2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolim20
29-17
38
3 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacio20
38-24
37
4 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga20
31-20
37
5 Junior Junior20
35-25
35
6 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC20
25-19
35
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe20
21-17
31
8 America de Cali America de Cal20
23-19
29
9 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrol20
24-22
29
10 Rionegro Aguilas Rionegro Aguil20
29-27
27
11 Once Caldas Once Caldas20
21-24
27
12 Millonarios Millonarios20
23-26
26
13 Llaneros Llaneros20
17-25
25
14 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali20
22-28
21
15 Union Magdalena Union Magdalen20
22-32
21
16 Envigado Envigado20
18-22
20
17 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Past20
26-28
19
18 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pere20
19-36
18
19 Chico Chico20
14-29
16
20 La Equidad La Equidad20
14-29
14
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