icon back

Match Prediction

Estoril vs Estrela Prediction

Finished
Portugal flag Portugal
Primeira Liga

Estoril

€33.25m

17 May13:00
4 : 0

Estrela

€15.15m

Preview

Estoril vs Estrela Prediction Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Estrela Prediction: Can the Hosts Assert Their Authority?

If you’re searching for the most insightful Estoril vs Estrela prediction ahead of their May 17th meeting at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, you’ve landed in the right place. This Primeira Liga fixture offers more than just mid-table comfort for Estoril and survival anxiety for Estrela. With the odds finely balanced—home win at 2.75, draw at 3.32, away win at 2.756—there’s plenty for sports betting fans to chew over. Let’s break down the numbers, form, and betting tips to help you make a smart move.

League Positions and Motivation: The Tale of Two Teams

Estoril, sitting 9th with 43 points after 33 matches, have enjoyed a relatively stable campaign. Estrela, on the other hand, are 15th with 29 points—just above the danger zone. This 14-point, 6-place gap is more than just a stat; it’s a reflection of each club’s season, ambition, and pressure.

  • Estoril have a squad valued at €33.25m, more than double Estrela’s €15.15m. This financial muscle often translates into performance and depth, especially at home.
  • Estrela’s recent upset—a 2:0 win over FC Porto at odds of 6.7—shows they can surprise, but consistency has been lacking.

The head to head history also favors Estoril; their last encounter on 2024-02-04 ended 1:0 to the hosts, underlining their ability to grind out results in tight matches.

Stats That Matter: Possession, Shots, and Expected Goals

When it comes to the numbers, Estoril are expected to edge possession (53% vs. 47%) and test the keeper more often with 9 shots (3 on target) compared to Estrela’s 10 (but only 2 on target). Corners are forecasted to be close—3 for Estoril, 4 for Estrela—suggesting a match with moments at both ends, but not necessarily an open goal fest.

  • Primeira Liga home teams win 43.5% of games, compared to 32.4% for away sides—another tick for Estoril in the betting odds.
  • Both teams score in 48.5% of matches, but the expected final score here is 2:0 for Estoril (half-time 1:0), pointing towards a clean sheet for the home side.

Betting Tips and Odds: Where’s the Value?

NerdyTips’ best tip for this match is under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.28, with a trust rating of 4.4/10. Our AI agrees, backing the same market with identical confidence. The stats back this up: only 26.8% of Primeira Liga games go over 3.5 goals, and the last head to head finished 1:0 to Estoril. If you’re looking for a safer sports betting angle, this is your best bet.

  1. Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.28) – Supported by both stats and recent history.
  2. Home win (odds 2.75) – Estoril’s better squad value, league position, and home advantage tip the scales, despite a modest trust rating (3.9/10).

For those seeking bigger returns, a correct score punt on 2:0 for Estoril could be tempting, especially given their defensive solidity at home and Estrela’s struggles in attack.

Final Thoughts: Estoril vs Estrela Prediction & Best Bets

To sum up this Estoril vs Estrela prediction: Estoril’s stronger league position, superior squad value, and recent head to head success make them worthy favorites in the betting odds. Estrela’s shock win over Porto is a warning not to underestimate them, but the numbers and trends suggest a controlled home win, likely with few goals.

  • Expect Estoril to dominate possession and take their chances.
  • Don’t expect a goal bonanza—under 3.5 goals is the standout tip.
  • Backing Estoril for the win at 2.75 offers reasonable value based on the stats.

For football fans and sports betting enthusiasts alike, this fixture is a reminder that data-driven predictions can bring both confidence and a little edge to your bets. Enjoy the game—and may your picks be as sharp as your analysis!

Read More

AI Predictions
Powered by NerdyTips Logo

Warning

Estoril no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Estoril vs Estrela

U3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -357
4/10

1x2 Tip

1 175

Estoril is expected to win with odds of 175
3/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -357

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

No 100

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -143

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

53%
Ball Possession
47%
9
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
2
2
Shots Off Goal
4
3
Corners
4

Average / Match

3.2
Total Goals
1.7
1.4
Goals Scored
0.5
1.8
Goals Against
1.2
54%
Possession
43%
8.9
Total Shots
8.8
3.5
Shots on Goal
2.2
3.4
Shots off Goal
4.8
14.6
Fouls
16
4
Corners
3.4
1.5
Offsides
2.9
1.7
Yellow Cards
3.5
0.2
Red Cards
0.2
421
Total Passes
291

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
2
10
Over 1.5 Goals
6
8
Over 2.5 Goals
1
4
Over 3.5 Goals
0
7
Both Teams Scored
2
0
Unexpected Wins
1
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Estoril
3 - 0 - 2
Estrela
Estoril Estoril 17-May-25
4:0
Estrela Estrela
Estrela Estrela 05-Jan-25
2:4
Estoril Estoril
Estrela Estrela 24-Jul-24
2:1
Estoril Estoril
Estoril Estoril 04-Feb-24
1:0
Estrela Estrela
Estrela Estrela 25-Aug-23
2:1
Estoril Estoril

Profile time Recent Matches of Estoril

07 Dec Estoril Estoril.
-
Moreirense. Moreirense
30 NovL FC Porto FC Porto.
1:0
Estoril. Estoril

Profile time Recent Matches of Estrela

07 DecEstrela Estrela.
-
Arouca.Arouca
30 NovLSporting CP Sporting CP.
4:0
Estrela.Estrela

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Sporting CP Sporting CP34
88-27
82
2 Benfica Benfica34
84-28
80
3 FC Porto FC Porto34
65-30
71
4 SC Braga SC Braga34
55-30
66
5 Santa Clara Santa Clara34
36-32
57
6 Guimaraes Guimaraes34
47-37
54
7 Famalicao Famalicao34
44-39
47
8 Estoril Estoril34
48-53
46
9 Casa Pia Casa Pia34
39-44
45
10 Moreirense Moreirense34
42-50
40
11 Rio Ave Rio Ave34
39-55
38
12 Arouca Arouca34
35-49
38
13 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente34
34-47
34
14 Nacional Nacional34
32-50
34
15 Estrela Estrela34
24-50
29
16 AVS AVS34
25-60
27
17 Farense Farense34
25-46
27
18 Boavista Boavista34
24-59
24
Video preview
Log In
Register
Bankers
All Matches