Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Portugal
Estrela
€15.15m
AVS
€20.15m
Preview
Welcome to our in-depth Estrela vs AVS prediction for the upcoming Primeira Liga encounter, where the stakes are sky-high and every point could spell survival or doom. As the sun sets on the 2024/25 season, both Estrela and AVS find themselves embroiled in a tense relegation battle, with just five points separating them in the table. This is not just a match—it's a story of resilience, surprise, and tactical chess, all unfolding at Estádio José Gomes on May 11th.
If you think relegation scraps are dull, think again. Estrela stunned the football world with a 2-0 win over FC Porto just weeks ago, defying betting odds of 6.7 and proving they can pull off the improbable. Not to be outdone, AVS held title-chasing Sporting CP to a 2-2 draw back in February, with the odds firmly stacked against them at 1.33. Both teams have shown they can upend the script, making this fixture one to watch for fans and sports betting enthusiasts alike.
With 32 games played, Estrela sit 15th on 29 points, while AVS languish in 18th with 24 points. The €5 million gap in squad value (€15.15m vs €20.15m) hints at AVS's higher potential, but recent form and home advantage tilt the scales.
The league has seen 43.6% home wins—good news for Estrela—while away sides claim victory just 32.4% of the time. Both teams to score lands 48.3% of the time, and over 1.5 goals is a near-certainty at 71.9%. However, only 48.5% of matches breach the 2.5 goal mark, suggesting cagey, low-scoring affairs are common at this stage.
Our proprietary Estrela vs AVS prediction model expects Estrela to control 59% of possession, generating 11 shots (3 on target) to AVS's 8 (2 on target). This possession advantage should translate into more corners (projected 5-2 split) and greater territorial pressure, but may limit their counterattacking chances. Expect Estrela to probe patiently, while AVS sit deep, looking for rare breaks.
Set-pieces may prove decisive, with Estrela's pressure likely leading to more corners and dangerous dead-ball situations. However, the lack of open-play opportunities for AVS could see them focus on maximizing rare set-piece chances.
Let’s break down the betting odds and sports betting recommendations:
With just 7 corners and a projected disciplinary tally of 5 yellow cards, expect a tight, tactical battle rather than an end-to-end thriller. This is a fixture where patience and set-piece precision may separate the sides, not attacking fireworks.
In summary, our Estrela vs AVS prediction points to a tense, low-scoring affair dominated by Estrela's possession and home support. While both teams have upset giants recently, the numbers favor a cagey contest where a single goal could decide the outcome. For those interested in sports betting, the combination of a home win (1.93) and under 2.5 goals (1.67) offers solid value, especially with the league’s defensive trends at this stage of the season.
Estrela’s edge in possession and set-pieces should see them carve out just enough chances, but don’t expect a goal-fest. This has all the makings of a classic relegation battle: nervy, tactical, and decided by the smallest of margins. For punters and fans alike, keep your eyes on the corners, the cards, and the clock—this is football at its most unforgiving, and every detail counts.
Read More
1X -400
Estrela to win or draw with odds of -4001 -108
Estrela is expected to win with odds of -108Under 2.5 -149
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -128
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -238
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
|
|
0
-
1
-
1
|
|
 Estrela |
11-May-25
0:1
| AVS  |
| AVS |
28-Dec-24
1:1
| Estrela |
Portugal - Primeira Liga| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Sporting CP |
34 | 88-27 | 82 |
| 2 |
 Benfica |
34 | 84-28 | 80 |
| 3 |
 FC Porto |
34 | 65-30 | 71 |
| 4 |
 SC Braga |
34 | 55-30 | 66 |
| 5 |
 Santa Clara |
34 | 36-32 | 57 |
| 6 |
 Guimaraes |
34 | 47-37 | 54 |
| 7 |
 Famalicao |
34 | 44-39 | 47 |
| 8 |
 Estoril |
34 | 48-53 | 46 |
| 9 |
 Casa Pia |
34 | 39-44 | 45 |
| 10 |
 Moreirense |
34 | 42-50 | 40 |
| 11 |
 Rio Ave |
34 | 39-55 | 38 |
| 12 |
 Arouca |
34 | 35-49 | 38 |
| 13 |
 GIL Vicente |
34 | 34-47 | 34 |
| 14 |
 Nacional |
34 | 32-50 | 34 |
| 15 |
 Estrela |
34 | 24-50 | 29 |
| 16 |
 AVS |
34 | 25-60 | 27 |
| 17 |
 Farense |
34 | 25-46 | 27 |
| 18 |
 Boavista |
34 | 24-59 | 24 |
