The Jupiler Pro League serves up a fascinating clash as Genk hosts Union St. Gilloise at the Cegeka Arena on March 15, 2025, at 19:45 UTC. With both teams priced nearly identically—Genk at 2.62 for the win and Union St. Gilloise at 2.60—this one is shaping up to be a tight affair. The draw sits at 3.40, and given the history of close encounters between these two, it’s not a far-fetched outcome.

Our AI suggests that the best betting option for this match is Under 3.5 goals, priced at 1.38, with a trust rating of 5.4/10. The reasoning? Both teams have been solid defensively, and recent data backs a low-scoring contest. In fact, when these sides last met, Genk edged out a 1-0 victory. A repeat of that scoreline wouldn’t be surprising, especially with our AI predicting a 0-1 outcome in favor of the visitors.

Looking at possession stats, Genk is expected to control 51% of the ball, while Union St. Gilloise will have 49%. This suggests a balanced game where neither team dominates. The shot count also reflects this, with Genk predicted to have 11 shots (4 on target) and Union St. Gilloise slightly ahead with 14 shots (5 on target).

Corners are expected to be limited, with a total of 7 predicted—3 for Genk and 4 for Union St. Gilloise. Discipline-wise, the home side is projected to pick up 1 yellow card, while the visitors could see 2.

From a broader perspective, home teams in the Jupiler Pro League have won 39.0% of matches, while away teams have taken 27.8% of victories. Draws occur 33.2% of the time, making the X2 double chance at 1.48 an interesting option for cautious bettors.

When it comes to goals, 70.4% of league matches see over 1.5 goals, but only 29.2% exceed 3.5 goals—another strong argument for our Under 3.5 goals tip.

Union St. Gilloise has proven they can pull off surprises, as seen in their stunning 3-3 away result against Union Berlin when they were priced at 6.00 to win. That unpredictability makes them a dangerous opponent, even against a Genk side valued at €107.90m compared to Union’s €72.25m.

To sum it up, expect a tight, tactical battle with few goals. The Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.38 looks like the safest play, while those looking for a bit more value might consider X2 double chance at 1.48. A narrow Union St. Gilloise win wouldn’t be shocking, but don’t rule out a cagey draw either.