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Match Prediction

Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction

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Brazil flag Brazil
Serie A

Gremio

€90.10m

12 Jun19:00
1 : 1

Corinthians

€120.65m

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Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction Serie A

Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction: Can the Hosts Edge a Tactical Serie A Stalemate?

The Gremio vs Corinthians prediction for June 13, 2025, at Arena do Grêmio is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the Serie A season so far. Both sides find themselves locked together on 15 points after 11 rounds, with Corinthians just edging Gremio in the table by virtue of goal difference—11th and 12th, respectively. With each team’s recent results defying expectations and the memory of their last head to head fresh in the mind, punters and fans alike are bracing for a contest where every detail could tip the balance.

Setting the Scene: Neck-and-Neck in Serie A

It’s rare for two iconic Brazilian clubs to be so evenly matched at this stage of the campaign. Gremio and Corinthians have mirrored each other’s fortunes, both amassing 15 points, and both displaying a knack for unpredictability. The last time they met, back on December 8, 2024, Corinthians stunned the odds—Gremio were slight favorites at 2.6, Corinthians at 2.63—but it was the visitors who stole the show with a ruthless 3-0 away win.

Since then, both teams have continued to keep tipsters on their toes. Gremio’s gritty 0-0 away draw at Botafogo (odds 5.15) and Corinthians’ impressive 1-0 win at Palmeiras (odds 5.0) are recent reminders that these sides are anything but predictable.

Statistical Breakdown: Margins Matter

The data for this tie points to a razor-thin margin between the teams. Here’s how the key numbers stack up:

  • Possession forecast: Gremio 46%, Corinthians 54%
  • Shots: Gremio 12, Corinthians 9
  • Shots on goal: Gremio 4, Corinthians 1
  • Corners: 4 each
  • Yellow cards: Gremio 2, Corinthians 3
  • Squad value: Gremio €90.10m, Corinthians €120.65m

Despite Corinthians’ higher squad value, the stats suggest a tightly contested affair. Gremio’s home advantage is reflected in the betting odds—home win at 2.4, draw at 3.05, away win at 3.0—underscoring just how even this fixture is expected to be.

Betting Odds and Predictions: Where’s the Value?

When it comes to the Gremio vs Corinthians prediction, punters face a classic dilemma. The 1X market (home win or draw) at odds of 1.36 looks logical, given Gremio’s slight edge at home and the league’s home win percentage of 41.4%. However, with a trust rating of just 2.0/10, it’s not a high-confidence play—this match has “tight contest” written all over it.

  • Home win (2.4): Slight favorite, but not by much.
  • Draw (3.05): Always a contender with 37.6% of league matches ending level.
  • Away win (3.0): Corinthians have proven they can upset the odds on the road.

NerdyTips’ Top Pick: Under 2.5 Goals

The real value, according to NerdyTips’ AI, lies with under 2.5 total goals (odds 1.6, trust 8.0/10). Here’s why:

  • Both teams have a recent history of low-scoring games—Gremio’s 0-0 at Botafogo and Corinthians’ 1-0 at Palmeiras.
  • The predicted shot count is modest, with Corinthians expected to muster just one shot on target and Gremio only four.
  • League-wide, only 36.4% of matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams score in just 40.8% of games.

The predicted final score? A narrow 1:0 Gremio win, with the first half expected to be goalless—a classic recipe for a cagey, low-scoring affair.

Head to Head and Historical Trends

While Corinthians’ 3-0 win in the last head to head might tempt some to back the away side, that result was an outlier rather than the norm. With both teams’ recent results marked by defensive solidity and a reluctance to take risks, the stats and trends point firmly towards another tight encounter.

Final Verdict: Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction

With both teams locked on points, evenly matched in most statistical categories, and with historical and league trends favoring low-scoring games, the Gremio vs Corinthians prediction leans heavily towards under 2.5 goals at 1.6. While a home win or draw is the logical cover, the real smart money is on a tactical, hard-fought contest with precious few chances—just as the stats and recent results suggest.

Expect a chess match at Arena do Grêmio, where every inch will be contested and goals will be at a premium.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Gremio vs Corinthians

U2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -167
8/10

1x2 Tip

1X -278

Gremio to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -167

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

No -125

At least one team is not expected to score
7/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U3.5 -127

Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

46%
Ball Possession
54%
12
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
1
5
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
3

Average / Match

1.7
Total Goals
1.6
1
Goals Scored
1
0.7
Goals Against
0.6
52%
Possession
60%
13.9
Total Shots
10.9
5.2
Shots on Goal
2.7
5.2
Shots off Goal
4.9
11.3
Fouls
11.5
5.6
Corners
4.9
0.7
Offsides
1.4
2.1
Yellow Cards
2.9
0.1
Red Cards
0
405
Total Passes
493

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
5
5
Over 1.5 Goals
3
2
Over 2.5 Goals
2
1
Over 3.5 Goals
1
4
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Gremio
8 - 12 - 9
Corinthians
Gremio Gremio 08-Dec-24
0:3
Corinthians Corinthians
Gremio Gremio 08-Aug-24
0:0
Corinthians Corinthians
Corinthians Corinthians 01-Aug-24
0:0
Gremio Gremio
Corinthians Corinthians 26-Jul-24
2:2
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 12-Nov-23
0:1
Corinthians Corinthians
Corinthians Corinthians 19-Sep-23
4:4
Gremio Gremio
Corinthians Corinthians 05-Dec-21
1:1
Gremio Gremio
Gremio Gremio 29-Aug-21
0:1
Corinthians Corinthians
Corinthians Corinthians 22-Nov-20
0:0
Gremio Gremio

Profile time Recent Matches of Gremio

07 Dec Sport Recife Sport Recife.
-
Gremio. Gremio
03 DecL Gremio Gremio.
1:2
Fluminense. Fluminense

Profile time Recent Matches of Corinthians

07 DecCorinthians Corinthians.
-
Juventude.Juventude
03 DecLFortaleza Fortaleza.
2:1
Corinthians.Corinthians

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Flamengo Flamengo37
75-24
78
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras37
63-32
73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro36
53-26
69
4 Mirassol Mirassol37
60-36
66
5 Fluminense Fluminense37
48-39
61
6 Bahia Bahia37
50-44
60
7 Botafogo Botafogo36
52-34
59
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo37
43-46
51
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino37
44-54
48
10 Corinthians Corinthians37
41-46
46
11 Gremio Gremio37
43-50
46
12 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama37
55-55
45
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG37
38-44
45
14 Santos Santos37
42-50
44
15 Ceara Ceara37
33-37
43
16 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC37
41-54
43
17 Vitoria Vitoria37
34-52
42
18 Internacional Internacional37
41-56
41
19 Juventude Juventude37
34-68
34
20 Sport Recife Sport Recife37
28-71
17
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