Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction

Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction: Can the Hosts Edge a Tactical Serie A Stalemate?

The Gremio vs Corinthians prediction for June 13, 2025, at Arena do Grêmio is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the Serie A season so far. Both sides find themselves locked together on 15 points after 11 rounds, with Corinthians just edging Gremio in the table by virtue of goal difference—11th and 12th, respectively. With each team’s recent results defying expectations and the memory of their last head to head fresh in the mind, punters and fans alike are bracing for a contest where every detail could tip the balance.

Setting the Scene: Neck-and-Neck in Serie A

It’s rare for two iconic Brazilian clubs to be so evenly matched at this stage of the campaign. Gremio and Corinthians have mirrored each other’s fortunes, both amassing 15 points, and both displaying a knack for unpredictability. The last time they met, back on December 8, 2024, Corinthians stunned the odds—Gremio were slight favorites at 2.6, Corinthians at 2.63—but it was the visitors who stole the show with a ruthless 3-0 away win.

Since then, both teams have continued to keep tipsters on their toes. Gremio’s gritty 0-0 away draw at Botafogo (odds 5.15) and Corinthians’ impressive 1-0 win at Palmeiras (odds 5.0) are recent reminders that these sides are anything but predictable.

Statistical Breakdown: Margins Matter

The data for this tie points to a razor-thin margin between the teams. Here’s how the key numbers stack up:

• Possession forecast: Gremio 46%, Corinthians 54%


• Shots: Gremio 12, Corinthians 9


• Shots on goal: Gremio 4, Corinthians 1


• Corners: 4 each


• Yellow cards: Gremio 2, Corinthians 3


• Squad value: Gremio €90.10m, Corinthians €120.65m

Despite Corinthians’ higher squad value, the stats suggest a tightly contested affair. Gremio’s home advantage is reflected in the betting odds—home win at 2.4, draw at 3.05, away win at 3.0—underscoring just how even this fixture is expected to be.

Betting Odds and Predictions: Where’s the Value?

When it comes to the Gremio vs Corinthians prediction, punters face a classic dilemma. The 1X market (home win or draw) at odds of 1.36 looks logical, given Gremio’s slight edge at home and the league’s home win percentage of 41.4%. However, with a trust rating of just 2.0/10, it’s not a high-confidence play—this match has “tight contest” written all over it.

• Home win (2.4): Slight favorite, but not by much.


• Draw (3.05): Always a contender with 37.6% of league matches ending level.


• Away win (3.0): Corinthians have proven they can upset the odds on the road.

NerdyTips’ Top Pick: Under 2.5 Goals

The real value, according to NerdyTips’ AI, lies with under 2.5 total goals (odds 1.6, trust 8.0/10). Here’s why:

• Both teams have a recent history of low-scoring games—Gremio’s 0-0 at Botafogo and Corinthians’ 1-0 at Palmeiras.


• The predicted shot count is modest, with Corinthians expected to muster just one shot on target and Gremio only four.


• League-wide, only 36.4% of matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams score in just 40.8% of games.

The predicted final score? A narrow 1:0 Gremio win, with the first half expected to be goalless—a classic recipe for a cagey, low-scoring affair.

Head to Head and Historical Trends

While Corinthians’ 3-0 win in the last head to head might tempt some to back the away side, that result was an outlier rather than the norm. With both teams’ recent results marked by defensive solidity and a reluctance to take risks, the stats and trends point firmly towards another tight encounter.

Final Verdict: Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction

With both teams locked on points, evenly matched in most statistical categories, and with historical and league trends favoring low-scoring games, the Gremio vs Corinthians prediction leans heavily towards under 2.5 goals at 1.6. While a home win or draw is the logical cover, the real smart money is on a tactical, hard-fought contest with precious few chances—just as the stats and recent results suggest.

Expect a chess match at Arena do Grêmio, where every inch will be contested and goals will be at a premium.