HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction: A Tight Battle Ahead

When HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split meet on May 11, 2025, at ŠRC Velika Gorica, expect a tense, low-scoring affair. The hosts, sitting 8th in the Croatian HNL with 36 points, face a stern test against 3rd-placed Hajduk Split (56 points). Despite the gap in standings and squad value (€12.88m vs €46.35m), Gorica have proven they can defy expectations—just as they did in their 1:0 win over Hajduk in December 2024. With odds favoring the visitors (1.65 for an away win), this HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction leans into the data, recent form, and NerdyTips’ AI insights to uncover value in the betting markets.

Context and Recent Form

Gorica’s season has been defined by gritty performances, highlighted by their shock 1:0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb in April (odds 6.25). They’ve shown a knack for frustrating stronger opponents, a trend that aligns with the league’s broader tendencies:

• Home advantage? HNL home teams win 43.6% of matches, but Gorica’s underdog status makes the 5.25 odds for a home win intriguing.


• Low-scoring games: Only 48.1% of HNL matches see over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the AI’s top tip of under 2.5 goals (odds 1.67, trust score 7.2/10).


• Head-to-head: Gorica’s 1:0 win in December—despite being priced at 7.2—proves they can disrupt Hajduk’s rhythm.

Hajduk Split, meanwhile, boast superior possession and attacking stats but have struggled to break down compact defenses. Their 2:1 win at Dinamo Zagreb in 2023 (odds 5.25) showcased their quality, but consistency has been an issue.

Key Stats and Betting Insights

NerdyTips’ AI projects a 1:0 Gorica win (confidence 1.4, odds 5.25), with a goalless first half. The predicted match stats further support a cagey game:

• Possession: Hajduk to dominate with 55%, but Gorica’s defensive shape will limit clear chances.


• Shots: Hajduk may fire 12 attempts (3 on target), but Gorica’s 7 shots (2 on target) could be more decisive.


• Discipline: Expect a physical game—2 yellow cards for Gorica, 1 for Hajduk.

Why Under 2.5 Goals is the Smart Play

The AI’s standout betting tip—under 2.5 goals—fits perfectly with both teams’ tendencies. Gorica average just 1.1 goals per game at home, while Hajduk’s away matches see under 2.5 goals 58% of the time. With odds at 1.67, this market offers solid value.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

While Hajduk Split are favorites, Gorica’s resilience and the league’s low-scoring trends make this far from straightforward. Here’s the summary:

1. Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.67 odds).


2. Dark horse: Gorica to win 1:0 (5.25 odds)—a repeat of their December upset.


3. Avoid: Over 3.55 goals—only 26.7% of HNL matches hit this mark.

In a game where margins will be razor-thin, backing the underdog or a defensive battle could yield the best returns. Keep an eye on the referee assignment, as stricter officiating might further tilt the game toward fewer goals.