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Match Prediction

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

Finished
Croatia flag Croatia
HNL

HNK Gorica

€12.88m

11 May10:00
1 : 1

Hajduk S

€46.35m

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HNK Gorica vs Hajduk S Prediction HNL

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction: A Tight Battle Ahead

When HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split meet on May 11, 2025, at ŠRC Velika Gorica, expect a tense, low-scoring affair. The hosts, sitting 8th in the Croatian HNL with 36 points, face a stern test against 3rd-placed Hajduk Split (56 points). Despite the gap in standings and squad value (€12.88m vs €46.35m), Gorica have proven they can defy expectations—just as they did in their 1:0 win over Hajduk in December 2024. With odds favoring the visitors (1.65 for an away win), this HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction leans into the data, recent form, and NerdyTips’ AI insights to uncover value in the betting markets.

Context and Recent Form

Gorica’s season has been defined by gritty performances, highlighted by their shock 1:0 victory over Dinamo Zagreb in April (odds 6.25). They’ve shown a knack for frustrating stronger opponents, a trend that aligns with the league’s broader tendencies:

  • Home advantage? HNL home teams win 43.6% of matches, but Gorica’s underdog status makes the 5.25 odds for a home win intriguing.
  • Low-scoring games: Only 48.1% of HNL matches see over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the AI’s top tip of under 2.5 goals (odds 1.67, trust score 7.2/10).
  • Head-to-head: Gorica’s 1:0 win in December—despite being priced at 7.2—proves they can disrupt Hajduk’s rhythm.

Hajduk Split, meanwhile, boast superior possession and attacking stats but have struggled to break down compact defenses. Their 2:1 win at Dinamo Zagreb in 2023 (odds 5.25) showcased their quality, but consistency has been an issue.

Key Stats and Betting Insights

NerdyTips’ AI projects a 1:0 Gorica win (confidence 1.4, odds 5.25), with a goalless first half. The predicted match stats further support a cagey game:

  • Possession: Hajduk to dominate with 55%, but Gorica’s defensive shape will limit clear chances.
  • Shots: Hajduk may fire 12 attempts (3 on target), but Gorica’s 7 shots (2 on target) could be more decisive.
  • Discipline: Expect a physical game—2 yellow cards for Gorica, 1 for Hajduk.

Why Under 2.5 Goals is the Smart Play

The AI’s standout betting tip—under 2.5 goals—fits perfectly with both teams’ tendencies. Gorica average just 1.1 goals per game at home, while Hajduk’s away matches see under 2.5 goals 58% of the time. With odds at 1.67, this market offers solid value.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

While Hajduk Split are favorites, Gorica’s resilience and the league’s low-scoring trends make this far from straightforward. Here’s the summary:

  1. Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.67 odds).
  2. Dark horse: Gorica to win 1:0 (5.25 odds)—a repeat of their December upset.
  3. Avoid: Over 3.55 goals—only 26.7% of HNL matches hit this mark.

In a game where margins will be razor-thin, backing the underdog or a defensive battle could yield the best returns. Keep an eye on the referee assignment, as stricter officiating might further tilt the game toward fewer goals.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for HNK Gorica vs Hajduk S

U2.5 -149

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -149
7/10

1x2 Tip

1 425

HNK Gorica is expected to win with odds of 425
1/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -149

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
7/10

Both Teams To Score

No -143

At least one team is not expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 140

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

45%
Ball Possession
55%
7
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
3
Shots Off Goal
6
2
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

2.1
Total Goals
2.3
1.1
Goals Scored
0.9
1
Goals Against
1.4
47%
Possession
51%
6.8
Total Shots
11
1.9
Shots on Goal
2.8
3.8
Shots off Goal
5.8
11.9
Fouls
12.3
2
Corners
4.6
2.7
Offsides
1.4
1.88
Yellow Cards
2
0.13
Red Cards
0.33
372
Total Passes
379

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
3
6
Over 1.5 Goals
7
5
Over 2.5 Goals
4
1
Over 3.5 Goals
2
4
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

HNK Gorica
10 - 6 - 16
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split Hajduk S 10-Aug-25
2:0
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 11-May-25
1:1
Hajduk S HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split Hajduk S 09-Mar-25
2:1
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 07-Dec-24
1:0
Hajduk S HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split Hajduk S 21-Sep-24
4:1
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split Hajduk S 19-May-24
2:1
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 09-Mar-24
0:3
Hajduk S HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split Hajduk S 02-Dec-23
3:0
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica

Profile time Recent Matches of HNK Gorica

05 Dec Slaven Belupo Slaven Belup.
-
Gorica. Gorica
01 DecL Gorica Gorica.
0:2
Din. Zagreb. Din. Zagreb

Profile time Recent Matches of Hajduk S

06 DecDin. Zagreb Din. Zagreb.
-
Hajduk Split.Hajduk Split
29 NovDHajduk Split Hajduk Split.
1:1
NK Varazdin.NK Varazdin

Croatia - HNL Croatia - HNL

Team Matches Goals Points
1 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka36
49-21
65
2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb36
69-41
65
3 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Spl36
49-34
63
4 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin36
28-24
49
5 NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belu36
42-45
48
6 Istra 1961 Istra 196136
39-42
48
7 NK Osijek NK Osijek36
46-52
42
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva 36
45-54
39
9 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica36
29-51
37
10 Sibenik Sibenik36
28-60
30
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