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Match Prediction

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock Prediction

Finished
Scotland flag Scotland
Premiership

Motherwell

€14.40m

14 May14:45
3 : 0

Kilmarnock

€12.20m

Preview

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock Prediction Premiership

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock Prediction: A Mid-Table Tussle With Plenty at Stake

When Motherwell vs Kilmarnock prediction pops up on the fixture list, it’s rarely a dull affair. This time, with just four points separating the sides—Motherwell in 8th (39 points) and Kilmarnock in 9th (35 points)—the stakes feel even higher. The bookmakers agree, pricing this as a near coin-flip: Motherwell slight favorites at 2.64, Kilmarnock close behind at 2.7, and the draw at 3.2. Fir Park will host this Premiership duel on May 14th, and if history is any guide, goals and drama won’t be in short supply.

Why This Fixture Screams 'Over 1.5 Goals'

NerdyTips’ AI crunched the numbers, and the standout bet here is over 1.5 goals at 1.33 odds (5.1/10 confidence). It’s a smart pick when you consider:

  • 65.2% of Premiership matches exceed 1.5 goals.
  • Both teams average 11 shots per game, though Kilmarnock’s 4 on-target edges Motherwell’s 2.
  • Their last head-to-head in December 2024 ended 1-1—a scoreline that could easily repeat or inflate.

Add the broader league context—home teams win 39.6% of games (away sides just 27.1%)—and the sports betting angle becomes clearer. Motherwell’s slight edge in squad value (€14.4m vs. €12.2m) and projected 55% possession might tip the scales, but Kilmarnock’s sharper finishing could level the playing field.

Tactical Nuggets and Derby Spice

This isn’t just about betting odds; it’s about how these teams match up. Motherwell tends to control the ball, but Kilmarnock’s efficiency in front of goal (see those on-target stats) makes them dangerous on the break. The head-to-head history adds flavor: both pulled off shock wins over Rangers this season (Motherwell at 15.0 odds, Kilmarnock at 5.75), proving they thrive as underdogs.

Then there’s the 'derby spice': expect yellows. Motherwell averages 2 expected cards per game, Kilmarnock just 1. Whether the referee keeps control—or needs a backup whistle—could shape the game’s tempo.

Key Stats at a Glance

  1. Corners: 8 apiece—set-pieces could decide it.
  2. BTTS: Lands 41.9% of the time in the Premiership.
  3. Over 2.5 goals: Hits in 44.7% of league games.

Where’s the Smart Money?

While the 1X2 market leans toward Motherwell (1.4 confidence), the real sports betting value might lie elsewhere. Here’s why:

  • Over 1.5 goals feels safer given both teams’ streaks and league trends.
  • A 2-1 scoreline prediction (1-1 HT) mirrors Motherwell’s home advantage but acknowledges Kilmarnock’s bite.

For those eyeing the Motherwell vs Kilmarnock prediction, the goals market offers a cushion. But as any fan knows, these mid-table battles often defy logic—just ask Rangers.

Final Verdict

Expect a lively, scrappy contest at Fir Park. The betting odds suggest a tight game, and the stats back it up. Whether you’re backing goals, cards, or a late winner, this Premiership clash promises enough drama to keep punters—and fans—on the edge of their seats.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock

O1.5 -303

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -303
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 164

Motherwell is expected to win with odds of 164
1/10

Total Goals

Over 1.5 -303

At least 2 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -133

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -115

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

55%
Ball Possession
45%
11
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
4
4
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

2.9
Total Goals
3.3
1.2
Goals Scored
1.4
1.7
Goals Against
1.9
48%
Possession
45%
9.6
Total Shots
11.8
3.3
Shots on Goal
4
3.9
Shots off Goal
4.5
9.3
Fouls
12
3.5
Corners
5.1
0.8
Offsides
1.7
1.88
Yellow Cards
1.38
0.13
Red Cards
0
355
Total Passes
278

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
4
8
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
4
3
Over 3.5 Goals
4
6
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Motherwell
20 - 11 - 16
Kilmarnock
Motherwell Motherwell 14-May-25
3:0
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 05-Apr-25
2:0
Motherwell Motherwell
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 08-Jan-25
0:0
Motherwell Motherwell
Motherwell Motherwell 20-Dec-24
1:1
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Motherwell Motherwell 18-Aug-24
1:0
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Motherwell Motherwell 03-Feb-24
1:1
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 04-Nov-23
1:0
Motherwell Motherwell
Motherwell Motherwell 26-Aug-23
2:1
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock

Profile time Recent Matches of Motherwell

06 Dec Motherwell Motherwell.
-
Livingston. Livingston
03 DecD Falkirk Falkirk.
0:0
Motherwell. Motherwell

Profile time Recent Matches of Kilmarnock

06 DecKilmarnock Kilmarnock.
-
Rangers.Rangers
03 DecDHearts Hearts.
1:1
Kilmarnock.Kilmarnock

Scotland - Premiership Scotland - Premiership

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Celtic Celtic33
97-22
81
2 Rangers Rangers33
68-35
66
3 Hibernian Hibernian33
54-41
53
4 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd33
41-40
50
5 Aberdeen Aberdeen33
45-49
50
6 ST Mirren ST Mirren33
45-54
41
7 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlo33
43-44
40
8 Motherwell Motherwell33
37-56
39
9 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock33
38-58
35
10 Ross County Ross County33
33-56
35
11 Dundee Dundee33
50-71
34
12 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone33
33-58
29
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