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Match Prediction

MVV vs Jong Ajax Prediction

Finished
Netherlands flag Netherlands
Eerste Divisie

MVV

€5.57m

2 May14:00
1 : 0

Jong Ajax

€12.85m

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MVV vs Jong Ajax Prediction Eerste Divisie

MVV vs Jong Ajax Prediction: A Tight Mid-Table Battle

When MVV vs Jong Ajax prediction comes into focus, the numbers tell a story of two evenly matched sides. With just two points separating them—MVV in 15th (37 points) and Jong Ajax in 17th (35 points)—this Eerste Divisie encounter promises to be a closely fought affair. The betting odds reflect that tension, with a home win priced at 2.1, a draw at 3.9, and an away victory at 3.0. On paper, Jong Ajax’s squad value (€12.85m) dwarfs MVV’s (€5.57m), yet the market leans slightly toward the hosts. Why? Let’s dig deeper.

Why the Slight Edge for MVV?

Our AI’s sports betting model gives a 1X (home win or draw) recommendation at 1.37 odds, though with a modest trust rating of 2.1/10. This aligns with league-wide trends—home teams win 44.3% of Eerste Divisie matches, and MVV’s recent resilience at De Geusselt adds weight to the argument. Their gritty 0-0 draw against De Graafschap (6.3 odds) showcased their ability to frustrate stronger opponents, while Jong Ajax’s 1-1 stalemate at Willem II (7.7 odds) proved they can punch above their weight too.

Statistically, MVV is expected to control 53% possession and earn 5 corners, compared to Jong Ajax’s 47% and 4. These aren’t dominant figures, but they hint at a measured, home-driven tempo. The head to head record also favors MVV, who won 1-0 in their last meeting back in April 2022. While past results don’t guarantee future success, they do add psychological texture to this matchup.

Goals (or Lack Thereof) Expected

Our AI tips under 3.5 goals at 1.85 odds (trust rating 1.8), and the underlying data supports this. MVV averages 15 shots per game with 5 on target, while Jong Ajax manages just 9 shots and 3 on target. A predicted 2.1 scoreline (1-0 at halftime) suggests a game where chances may be scarce but decisive. This contrasts with broader league trends—58.2% of Eerste Divisie matches see over 2.5 goals—but MVV’s pragmatic style and Jong Ajax’s inconsistency in front of goal could buck that trend.

Key Stats at a Glance

  • Home advantage: MVV has been tough to beat at De Geusselt, with recent results defying odds.
  • Low-card game: Just 1 yellow card expected for each team, reducing disruption risks.
  • BTTS? League-wide, 57% of games see both teams score, but this one might not.

The Jong Ajax Paradox

Jong Ajax’s higher squad value hasn’t translated to points this season—a recurring theme for developmental sides. Their talent pool is enviable, but inconsistency plagues them. Meanwhile, MVV’s cheaper, grittier squad has often outperformed expectations. This clash could hinge on whether Jong Ajax’s youngsters rise to the occasion or succumb to the pressure of a tight mid-table scrap.

Final Thoughts: Where Does the Value Lie?

For those weighing a MVV vs Jong Ajax prediction, the data leans toward a low-scoring home win or draw. The 1X bet at 1.37 odds offers a safer route, while under 3.5 goals (1.85) feels like a smart hedge. Jong Ajax’s flashes of brilliance make them dangerous, but MVV’s home grit and the betting odds tilt the scales their way. In a game where margins matter, expect patience—and perhaps a single moment—to decide it.

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Meaningless match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for MVV vs Jong Ajax

1X -270

MVV to win or draw with odds of -270
2/10

1x2 Tip

1X -270

MVV to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -118

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

No 205

At least one team is not expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 -164

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

53%
Ball Possession
47%
15
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
3
6
Shots Off Goal
2
5
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

3
Total Goals
2.2
1
Goals Scored
0.5
2
Goals Against
1.7
47%
Possession
50%
11.5
Total Shots
9.1
3.6
Shots on Goal
3.4
5.3
Shots off Goal
2.9
12
Fouls
9.9
4.7
Corners
4.6
1.2
Offsides
1.3
1.5
Yellow Cards
1.22
0
Red Cards
0.1
395
Total Passes
399

Overview Last 10 Matches

1
Wins
2
7
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
3
4
Over 3.5 Goals
1
4
Both Teams Scored
3
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

MVV
7 - 2 - 8
Jong Ajax
MVV MVV 02-May-25
1:0
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 19-Aug-24
0:0
MVV MVV
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 12-Feb-24
3:0
MVV MVV
MVV MVV 01-Sep-23
2:1
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 20-Feb-23
4:2
MVV MVV
MVV MVV 16-Sep-22
4:1
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
MVV MVV 29-Apr-22
1:0
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 27-Sep-21
3:1
MVV MVV
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 19-Mar-21
4:3
MVV MVV
MVV MVV 23-Oct-20
1:5
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax

Profile time Recent Matches of MVV

05 Dec Helmond Helmond.
-
Maastricht. Maastricht
30 NovD Maastricht Maastricht.
0:0
Roda. Roda

Profile time Recent Matches of Jong Ajax

05 DecAlmere City Almere City.
-
Jong Ajax.Jong Ajax
01 DecWJong Ajax Jong Ajax.
2:0
Vitesse.Vitesse

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Volendam FC Volendam38
87-48
82
2 Excelsior Excelsior38
74-38
74
3 Cambuur Cambuur38
63-42
71
4 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag38
69-47
70
5 Dordrecht Dordrecht38
69-46
68
6 De Graafschap De Graafschap38
73-50
65
7 Telstar Telstar38
69-47
61
8 Emmen Emmen38
56-53
56
9 Den Bosch Den Bosch38
53-48
55
10 Jong AZ Jong AZ38
69-63
52
11 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven38
58-64
51
12 Roda Roda38
49-57
49
13 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport38
53-61
46
14 VVV Venlo VVV Venlo38
44-69
41
15 MVV MVV38
52-59
40
16 FC OSS FC OSS38
31-61
38
17 Jong Ajax Jong Ajax38
37-52
36
18 Jong PSV Jong PSV38
55-86
30
19 Jong Utrecht Jong Utrecht38
31-82
23
20 Vitesse Vitesse38
54-73
5
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