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Match Prediction

Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United Prediction

Finished
Indonesia flag Indonesia
Liga 1

Persebaya

€4.55m

23 May08:00
1 : 3

Bali United

€4.26m

Preview

Persebaya vs Bali United Prediction Liga 1

Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United Prediction: Betting Tips, Stats, and a Tactical Preview

Welcome to NerdyTips’ deep dive into the Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United prediction for May 23, 2025, at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo. If you’re searching for smart betting tips, historical context, and a sprinkle of tactical insight, you’re in the right place. This Liga 1 encounter promises more than just points—it’s a test of home fortitude against recent head to head momentum.

Atmosphere, Stakes, and Recent Fortunes

Picture this: the sun blazing over Surabaya, stands packed with green-clad fans, and the air thick with expectation. Persebaya, with a market value of €4.55 million, will look to harness their home advantage—a factor that’s been golden in Liga 1, where home teams win 40.3% of matches. Bali United, valued at €4.156 million, arrive with confidence from their last head to head in April 2024, when they stunned Persebaya 2-0 away. But football, as we know, rarely reads from the same script twice.

Key Odds and What They Tell Us

  • Persebaya win: 1.53 (implied probability: 62.5%)
  • Draw: 4.15 (implied probability: 25.6%)
  • Bali United win: 5.0 (implied probability: 20.8%)

Bookmakers are clearly leaning towards a home win, but not without a hint of caution. The odds reflect Persebaya’s strong home record, but also respect Bali United’s ability to spring a surprise—just as they did in their last meeting.

Stats That Matter: Goals, Draws, and the BTTS Factor

Let’s break down the numbers that shape our Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United prediction:

  • Home wins in Liga 1: 40.3%
  • Away wins: 23%
  • Draws: 36.7%
  • Matches over 1.5 goals: 65.0%
  • Matches over 3.5 goals: 26.7%
  • Both teams to score (BTTS): 47.7%

What jumps out? Liga 1 is not a league for goal feasts—only about a quarter of games see four or more goals. The BTTS rate is below 50%, hinting at plenty of tight, tactical battles. This fits the AI’s conservative prediction: under 3.5 goals (1.57 odds, confidence 4.15/10) and a likely 2-0 final score for Persebaya, with a goalless first half.

Head to Head: Revenge or Repeat?

The last time these sides met, Bali United defied the odds (2.75 to Persebaya’s 2.23) and won 2-0 away. That result will sting for the hosts, who now have a perfect chance for payback in front of their own fans. But history also warns us: Bali United know how to frustrate Persebaya, especially with their disciplined, counter-attacking style.

Tactical Insights: Why Under 3.5 Goals Makes Sense

Persebaya’s approach at home is often measured—solid at the back, patient in possession, and rarely reckless. Bali United, meanwhile, thrive on quick transitions but may struggle to break down Surabaya’s organized defense. This mirrors the league’s low rate of high-scoring games (just 26.7% over 3.5 goals) and supports the AI’s under 3.5 goals tip.

  • Persebaya’s home advantage: Expect them to control the tempo, especially in the first half.
  • Bali United’s counterattacks: Dangerous, but likely to be stifled by a disciplined back line.
  • Draw potential: With 36.7% of Liga 1 matches ending level, don’t rule out a cagey affair—especially if the first half is goalless as predicted.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United Prediction: Betting Tips and Final Verdict

So, what’s the smart play for bettors? Here’s how the numbers, tactics, and recent head to head history stack up:

  1. Home Win (Persebaya at 1.53): The odds are short, and the AI’s confidence is modest (1.5/10), but the home advantage and revenge narrative make this a logical pick.
  2. Under 3.5 Goals (1.57): With a 4.15/10 confidence rating, this is the safer bet. The league’s goal trends and both teams’ tactical setups point to a controlled, low-scoring match.
  3. Correct Score 2-0 (HT 0-0): For those feeling brave, the AI expects a slow-burning first half before Persebaya pull away after the break.

In summary, our Persebaya Surabaya vs Bali United prediction leans towards a home win in a match unlikely to explode with goals. The stats, head to head history, and tactical realities all point to a tight contest—perfect for those who appreciate the chess match as much as the scoreboard. As always, bet responsibly and enjoy the beautiful game, NerdyTips style!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

The odd of the best tip is increasing. The initial odd was: 1.41

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Persebaya vs Bali United

U3.5 -175

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -175
3/10

1x2 Tip

1 -189

Persebaya is expected to win with odds of -189
1/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -175

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No 125

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -238

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Average / Match

2.5
Total Goals
2.5
1.4
Goals Scored
1
1.1
Goals Against
1.5

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
2
8
Over 1.5 Goals
8
2
Over 2.5 Goals
5
2
Over 3.5 Goals
3
7
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Persebaya Surabaya
4 - 1 - 8
Bali United
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya 23-May-25
1:3
Bali United Bali United
Bali United Bali United 28-Dec-24
2:0
Persebaya Persebaya Surabaya
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya 24-Apr-24
0:2
Bali United Bali United
Bali United Bali United 20-Oct-23
3:1
Persebaya Persebaya Surabaya
Bali United Bali United 18-Feb-23
4:0
Persebaya Persebaya Surabaya
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya 02-Sep-22
0:1
Bali United Bali United
Bali United Bali United 20-Jun-22
1:0
Persebaya Persebaya Surabaya
Bali United Bali United 25-Mar-22
0:3
Persebaya Persebaya Surabaya
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya 05-Jan-22
3:1
Bali United Bali United

Profile time Recent Matches of Persebaya

06 DecD PSM Makassar PSM Makassar.
1:1
Persebaya. Persebaya

Profile time Recent Matches of Bali United

Indonesia - Liga 1 Indonesia - Liga 1

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Persib Bandung Persib Bandung34
60-33
69
2 Dewa United Dewa United34
65-33
61
3 Malut United Malut United34
48-33
57
4 Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Born34
50-38
56
5 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Sura34
41-38
56
6 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar34
47-34
53
7 Persija Persija34
47-38
51
8 Bali United Bali United34
50-41
50
9 PSBS Biak Numfor PSBS Biak Numf34
44-47
48
10 Arema FC Arema FC34
53-51
47
11 Persita Persita34
32-43
43
12 Persik Kediri Persik Kediri34
40-42
41
13 Semen Padang Semen Padang34
38-60
36
14 Persis Solo Persis Solo34
34-46
36
15 Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madur34
36-58
36
16 PSS Sleman PSS Sleman34
43-50
34
17 Barito Putera Barito Putera34
42-57
34
18 PSIS Semarang PSIS Semarang34
29-57
25
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