Pogon Szczecin hosts Cracovia Krakow on March 14, 2025, at 19:30 UTC in what promises to be a tactical battle at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. With Pogon priced at 1.83 for the win, a draw at 3.38, and Cracovia sitting at 4.5, the odds suggest a home victory—but is it really that simple? Let’s break it down.

Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (Odds: 1.33, Confidence: 7.1/10)
If you’re looking for a solid bet, under 3.5 goals is the standout pick. Why? The Ekstraklasa has a history of low-scoring affairs, with only 26.9% of matches surpassing the 3.5-goal mark. Pogon’s expected 16 shots and Cracovia’s 10 shots suggest a competitive game, but with only 7 combined shots on target, a goal-fest seems unlikely.

1X2 Market: Pogon Szczecin to Win (Odds: 1.83, Confidence: 1.4/10)
While Pogon is favored, the confidence level of 1.4/10 suggests caution. Historically, home teams in the Ekstraklasa win 44.1% of matches, and Pogon’s projected 61% possession should give them control. However, Cracovia has pulled off surprises—like their 1-0 away win against Raków Częstochowa at staggering 6.0 odds. That said, Pogon’s 3-1 victory in their last H2H matchup strengthens their case.

Predicted Scoreline: 2-1 (Half-Time: 1-0)
Expect Pogon to start strong, potentially leading 1-0 at half-time. Cracovia’s 39% possession means they’ll likely play on the counter, but with just 2 expected shots on target, breaking through Pogon’s defense won’t be easy.

Final Thoughts
Pogon’s squad value (€13.40m) is notably lower than Cracovia’s (€20.35m), but home advantage and recent form tilt the scales in their favor. The under 3.5 goals bet looks like the safest play, while a Pogon win is a reasonable risk. Keep an eye on the corners market too—9 total corners expected could offer additional betting value.

Will Pogon secure the three points, or will Cracovia pull off another upset? Either way, expect a tight, tactical battle with goals at a premium.