The UEFA Europa League clash between Rīgas FS and Ajax on January 23, 2025, promises to be an intriguing encounter. Hosted at Daugavas Stadionā, this match sees Ajax as the clear favorite with odds of 1.5 for an away win, reflecting their significantly higher market value of €213.65m compared to Rīgas FS's €11.60m.

Ajax's dominance is anticipated with a predicted 59% possession, compared to Rīgas FS's 41%. This control should translate into more opportunities, with Ajax expected to take 13 total shots, 5 of which are predicted to be on target. Meanwhile, Rīgas FS is expected to manage 9 shots, with only 2 hitting the target.

Historically, home teams in the Europa League have won 49.7% of matches, but Rīgas FS faces an uphill battle given Ajax's stature and the odds. Despite this, Rīgas FS has shown they can defy expectations, as evidenced by their 2:2 draw against Galatasaray with odds of 8.2. However, such results are rare, making the away win a strong bet.

For bettors looking at the under/over market, the prediction leans towards under 3.5 goals with odds of 1.58. This is supported by the anticipated final score of 0:2 in favor of Ajax. While UEFA Europa League matches often see more than 1.5 goals (77.9%), only 30.4% exceed 3.5 goals, reinforcing the under bet as a strategic choice.

The predicted half-time score of 0:1 suggests Ajax will establish control early. Despite the odds, Rīgas FS's ability to surprise should not be completely discounted, but the data strongly supports an Ajax victory. With no yellow cards expected, the game may proceed smoothly, focusing purely on the footballing action.

In conclusion, the smart money is on Ajax to win, with a recommendation to explore the under 3.5 goals market. Both bets align with statistical trends and the provided predictions, offering a balanced approach for bettors.