Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II Prediction

Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II Prediction: Stats, Odds, and a Derby Day to Remember

If you’re searching for the most insightful Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II prediction, you’ve landed in the right place. With the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 season winding down, all eyes turn to Estadio Jesús Navas at 11:00 GMT on May 11, 2025. The betting odds suggest a razor-thin margin—Home: 2.89, Draw: 3.0, Away: 2.43—setting the stage for a tense, tactical battle. Let’s break down the stats, trends, and best bets for this much-anticipated fixture, and see why the numbers point to a tight, low-scoring affair.

Setting the Scene: Derby Day Drama in Seville

There’s something special about reserve team derbies in Spain. The stands at Estadio Jesús Navas will be buzzing, with fans hoping for a spark of brilliance—or maybe just a goal or two. But before you get swept up in the excitement, let’s look at the hard data that shapes our Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II prediction.

• Home teams win 50% of the time in this league. That’s a coin flip, but with a slight edge for Sevilla Atletico, who are no strangers to making their home ground a fortress.


• Draws occur in 32.1% of matches. Imagine 3 out of every 10 games ending with both teams shaking hands and sharing the spoils. Will this be one of those?


• Away wins are rare at just 17.9%. Atletico Madrid II may have the bigger name, but history says the road is a tough place to get three points.

The betting odds reflect this uncertainty, with no clear favorite. It’s the kind of matchup where a single moment—maybe a set piece, maybe a defensive slip—could decide everything.

Stats Spotlight: Goals Hard to Come By

Let’s talk goals, or rather, the lack of them. This league isn’t exactly known for wild scorelines. In fact, only 41.1% of games exceed 2.5 goals. That means nearly 6 out of 10 matches finish with two goals or fewer. If you’re expecting fireworks, you might want to adjust your expectations.

• Under 2.5 goals is the standout bet here, with odds at 1.6 and a solid 5.1/10 confidence rating from NerdyTips.


• Both teams score in just 46.4% of games—so don’t be surprised if one side draws a blank.


• While 69.6% of matches see over 1.5 goals, only 19.6% go over 3.5. Translation: expect a chess match, not a goal fest.

The AI’s top prediction? A 1X double chance (home win or draw) at 1.49 odds, with a 2.0 confidence score. That’s a nod to Sevilla Atletico’s home strength and the league’s draw-friendly nature.

Recent Form: Sevilla Atletico’s Underdog Statement

Don’t sleep on Sevilla Atletico. Their recent 2-0 away win over Real Murcia (at juicy 5.25 odds) shows they can punch above their weight, especially when the stakes are high. Atletico Madrid II, meanwhile, have struggled to impose themselves away from home—a trend that fits the league’s broader pattern.

Best Bets and Predictions: Where the Smart Money Goes

So, how do all these stats shape our Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II prediction? Here’s how the numbers stack up for sports betting fans:

1. Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 odds (5.2/10 confidence): With less than half of matches breaking the 2.5-goal barrier, this feels like the sharpest angle. Both teams are disciplined, and the stakes will only add to the caution.


2. 1X (Home win or Draw) at 1.49 odds (2.0 confidence): With the home team winning half the time and draws common, this covers two of the three most likely outcomes.


3. Correct Score: 1-0 (or 0-0 at halftime): The AI leans toward a narrow Sevilla Atletico win, with a goalless first half. If you like a sweat, this is your play.

And if you’re the type who likes to sweat the small stuff, just remember: with both teams scoring in less than half their games, a single goal could be enough to settle this. Maybe the referee will forget to show up and we’ll all get a 0-0 by default—hey, it’s happened in Sunday league!

Head to Head, Betting Odds, and Final Word

Historically, these reserve teams have played it close, with tactical battles and few clear-cut chances. The betting odds suggest a toss-up, but the head to head stats and league trends all point to a low-scoring, nervy affair. For those looking to make the most of their sports betting experience, sticking with the numbers—especially the Under 2.5 goals market—looks like the smart move.

So, whether you’re a stats nerd, a die-hard fan, or just looking for a good story to tell at the pub, this Sevilla Atletico vs Atletico Madrid II prediction has something for everyone. Expect tension, tactical chess, and maybe—just maybe—a single, decisive goal.