Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Tunisia
Monastiri
€7.20m
ES Metlaoui
€3.70m
Preview
Welcome to our US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui prediction, where we dig into the stats, sprinkle in some wit, and serve up the best betting tips for this Tunisian Ligue 1 fixture. With the match set for 2025-05-11 at 15:00 GMT, fans are gearing up for what looks, on paper, like a home banker. But as any seasoned football watcher knows, the beautiful game loves a twist—so let’s see what the numbers, history, and our AI’s crystal ball have to say.
Let’s start with the odds, because they’re about as subtle as a vuvuzela in a library. US Monastirienne are priced at a short 1.22 for the win, while the draw sits at 5.0, and a brave punt on ES Metlaoui would net you 13.0 times your stake. That’s the bookies’ way of saying, “Don’t get your hopes up, away fans.”
Why the huge gap? Market value tells the story. US Monastirienne’s squad is valued at a cool €7.20m, nearly double ES Metlaoui’s €3.70m. That kind of financial muscle usually translates to more depth, better options off the bench, and, let’s face it, fewer sleepless nights for the home manager.
If you’re still not convinced, consider the Tunisian Ligue 1 stats. Home teams win 42.9% of matches, while away sides scrape just 23.3%. Draws aren’t rare either, popping up in 33.8% of games. In short, Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet is not the place you want to be chasing an upset.
When these two met last on 2023-09-24, US Monastirienne edged a 3-2 thriller. Back then, the odds were already stacked in their favor (1.44 for the home win, 7.0 for ES Metlaoui), and they just about delivered, though not without a scare or two. That’s the kind of match that keeps statisticians honest and fans on their toes.
But let’s not forget the underdog stories. US Monastirienne grabbed a gritty 1-1 draw away at ES Tunis in April 2023, defying odds of 6.0. Meanwhile, ES Metlaoui held CS Sfaxien to a 1-1 draw on 2025-04-19, when few gave them a chance (win odds 7.5). Both sides have shown they can punch above their weight—just not often enough for the bookies to lose sleep.
Our AI’s top betting tip for this US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui prediction is under 3.5 goals, with a confidence rating of 5.0/10 and odds of 1.33. That might sound cautious, but the stats back it up:
In other words, Tunisian football is more chess match than goal fest. Expect tight lines, disciplined defending, and maybe a couple of moments to remember.
Our AI’s 1x2 prediction is a home win for US Monastirienne, with the same 5.0/10 confidence and odds as the under 3.5 goals tip. The final score prediction? A solid 2:0 to the hosts, with the same scoreline expected at halftime. That suggests an early statement from the favorites, followed by a controlled second half—perhaps not one for the neutral, but just the ticket for home fans.
So, for our US Monastirienne vs ES Metlaoui prediction, all the signs point to a home win, a sensible goal line, and a match that’s unlikely to break the mold. The gulf in squad value, the league’s love of home comforts, and the stats on low-scoring affairs all combine to make this a fixture where the smart money stays close to the script. But as always in football, don’t rule out a surprise—after all, that’s why we watch.
Read More
ES Metlaoui no motivation!
U3.5 -303
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3031 -455
Monastiri is expected to win with odds of -455Under 3.5 -303
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -238
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U3.5 -196
Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
2:0
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6
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5
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8
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|
 Monastiri |
11-May-25
1:1
| ES Metlaoui  |
| ES Metlaoui |
04-Jan-25
0:0
| Monastiri |
| ES Metlaoui |
21-Apr-24
2:2
| Monastiri |
| ES Metlaoui |
27-Dec-23
0:3
| Monastiri |
| Monastiri |
24-Sep-23
3:2
| ES Metlaoui |
| Monastiri |
25-Jan-23
1:0
| ES Metlaoui |
| ES Metlaoui |
23-Oct-22
1:2
| Monastiri |
| ES Metlaoui |
09-May-21
2:0
| Monastiri |
| Monastiri |
03-Feb-21
1:0
| ES Metlaoui |
| Monastiri |
16-Aug-20
1:1
| ES Metlaoui |
Tunisia - Ligue 1| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ES Tunis | 30 | 57-22 | 66 |
| 2 |
US Monastirien | 30 | 42-11 | 62 |
| 3 |
ES Sahel | 30 | 45-24 | 61 |
| 4 |
Club Africain | 30 | 36-19 | 56 |
| 5 |
ES Zarzis | 30 | 38-29 | 54 |
| 6 |
Stade Tunisien | 30 | 29-21 | 49 |
| 7 |
CS Sfaxien | 30 | 31-19 | 44 |
| 8 |
ES Metlaoui | 30 | 32-27 | 43 |
| 9 |
CA Bizertin | 30 | 29-28 | 35 |
| 10 |
US Ben Guerdan | 30 | 30-34 | 32 |
| 11 |
Olympique Béj | 30 | 19-37 | 29 |
| 12 |
AS Gabes | 30 | 20-38 | 28 |
| 13 |
AS Soliman | 30 | 17-42 | 27 |
| 14 |
Jeunesse Sport | 30 | 25-46 | 26 |
| 15 |
EGS Gafsa | 30 | 24-43 | 22 |
| 16 |
US Tataouine | 30 | 19-53 | 19 |
