Al Kholood vs Al Riyadh: Predictions and Tips
Al Kholood vs Al Riyadh: match context and odds
Round 23 of the Saudi Pro League takes us to Ar-Rass Stadium, Saudi Arabia, where Al Kholood host Al Riyadh on 2026-02-19 at 19:00 UTC. It’s a tense fixture near the wrong end of the table: points here don’t just improve mood, they can reshape the relegation picture.
The market leans slightly to the hosts: Home win 2.1, Draw 3.65, Away win 3.7. Historically in this league, home advantage matters (home wins: 42.2% vs away wins: 31.7%), which helps explain why Al Kholood are priced as favourites.
Best bet (NerdyTips): Under 3.5 goals @ 1.4
NerdyTips’ top recommendation is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.4, confidence 5.1/10). The model also repeats the same direction on the totals market: Under 3.5 with a trust rating of 5.2 at 1.4. In plain terms: the expectation is a match that stays controlled, with a ceiling of three goals.
Why it fits the numbers:
1) League goal distribution supports the “under”
Across four seasons of Pro League data, only 32.5% of matches went over 3.5 goals. That means the “under 3.5” side lands roughly two times out of three in this competition profile.
2) Recent form points to limited firepower, especially away
Al Riyadh’s last 10 matches: 0 wins, scoring 0.8 goals per game. That’s not the output of a team you automatically back to push a match into a four-goal script. Al Kholood, meanwhile, average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded in their last 10—competitive, but not consistently explosive.
3) The game script forecast is tight
The projected final score is 1–0, with a predicted half-time score of 0–0. Add the shot projections—Al Kholood 14 shots, Al Riyadh 13, and just 4 on target each—and you get volume without guaranteed efficiency. That’s often how unders cash: activity, but not clinical finishing.
One caution: Al Kholood’s recent sample includes 6 matches over 2.5 in their last 10, so they can be involved in open games. Still, “under 3.5” gives breathing room: a 2–1 or 3–0 still wins.
1X2 tip: Al Kholood to win (1) @ 2.1
The 1X2 prediction is 1 (Al Kholood win) at 2.1, with a modest trust level of 3.8. That caution is important: this is a high-pressure match, and relegation-zone fixtures can turn on one moment.
The case for the home win:
1) Long-run win rates and current momentum
Over a larger sample, Al Kholood have won 40.2% of their last 107 matches, while Al Riyadh have won just 24.0% of their last 100. Recent form widens the gap: Al Kholood have 3 wins in their last 10; Al Riyadh have none.
2) Home edge aligns with league trends
With home teams winning 42.2% league-wide, backing the home side at 2.1 is consistent with the competition’s baseline dynamics—especially against an opponent stuck in a long winless run.
3) The “surprise result” angle isn’t one-sided
Al Kholood have already shown they can spring shocks—like that famous 1–0 win over Al-Ahli Jeddah when priced at 7.5. Al Riyadh, too, proved they can resist elite pressure with a 1–1 against Al Hilal despite heavy odds against them. That’s exactly why the trust score isn’t high: Al Riyadh can draw you into a low-scoring stalemate.
Extra match notes bettors can use
Projected possession: Al Kholood 56%, Al Riyadh 44%. That suggests the hosts may control territory, but not necessarily create a flood of clear chances. Corners are forecast at 11 total (5–6 split), which hints at sustained phases and blocked attacks—often another “under-friendly” signal. Cards lean slightly toward the visitors (Al Kholood 1, Al Riyadh 2), consistent with a tense away performance.
The last head-to-head (2025-02-08) finished 3–2 for Al Kholood—an outlier compared to today’s under lean, but a reminder that early goals would change everything.
Final score pick
NerdyTips projects Al Kholood 1–0 Al Riyadh, half-time 0–0. For bettors, that pairs naturally with Under 3.5 goals and a cautious lean to the home win.
If you are interested in other leagues, check our First Amateur Division Belgium betting tips.
Gamble responsibly: betting involves risk, and no prediction is guaranteed.