Basaksehir vs Fatih Karagumruk: Predictions and Tips

Match & Market Snapshot (Süper Lig)

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu hosts a fascinating Süper Lig spot on the fixture list as 7th-placed Istanbul Basaksehir welcome 18th-placed Fatih Karagumruk. On paper, it looks routine. The odds agree: Home win 1.5, Draw 4.4, Away win 7.0.
Yet the numbers behind the game hint at a script that can flip quickly—especially if Basaksehir dominate the ball without killing the contest early.

League-wide trends from the last four years support goals and momentum swings: home wins land 44.6%, away wins 29.0%, and both teams score in 56.3%. Over 2.5 goals hits in 52.7% of Süper Lig matches—almost a coin toss, which matters when the price is still playable.

Kick-off: 14:00 UTC, Turkey.

Basaksehir: Control, Chances… and Vulnerability

Nuri Şahin’s Basaksehir have the look of a side built to manage matches: decent structure, plenty of possession, and enough quality up top to punish teams that sit too deep. Their season record (6W-5D-6L) and goal line (27 scored, 18 conceded) reads like a team that can beat anyone on their day, but also one that can leave the back door open when chasing a second goal.

Recent form backs that up: 4 wins in their last 10, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Half of those matches went over 2.5 goals. They also average 52% possession and around 14 shots per game—strong volume, but not always ruthless.

For this match specifically, the forecast leans heavily towards Basaksehir territory: 64% possession, 16 total shots, 6 on target, and 5 corners. That’s the classic profile of a home favourite pinning an opponent in… but it can also be the profile of a favourite getting caught on transition if the finishing isn’t sharp.

Players & absences

Basaksehir’s main threat is Eldor Shomurodov (12 league goals), with support from Davie Selke and Ivan Brnic. If Basaksehir are going to turn dominance into a comfortable win, it usually starts with their striker converting early pressure.
They may be without Christopher Operi and Olivier Kemen (international duty), while Yusuf Sarı is reportedly sidelined with a muscle issue until late January—small pieces that can still affect balance and rotation.

Fatih Karagumruk: Bottom, but Not Beaten

Karagumruk arrive in a grim league position with 9 points (2W-3D-12L) and a worrying 32 goals conceded. That’s relegation form, and it explains the 7.0 price for an away win.

But betting isn’t about the table alone—it’s about timing and match texture. Karagumruk just pulled a surprise 2-2 away draw at Alanyaspor despite being big outsiders. They’ve also got enough pace and directness to turn one good spell into a goal, even if they don’t create much overall (they average 7 shots per match across their last 10).

The projected match stats are telling: only 36% possession, 7 shots, and 2 on target. That’s not a recipe for control; it’s a recipe for opportunism—set pieces, counters, and making Basaksehir nervous if the first goal goes the wrong way.

Key men

David Datro Fofana leads their scoring with 5, while Andre Gray and Serginho offer support. There’s also a narrative angle with Berkay Ozcan (on loan from Basaksehir) potentially featuring—those games can get emotional, and emotions can create mistakes.

Head-to-Head & The “Surprise Result” Angle

The last noted head-to-head (2022) finished Basaksehir 1-2 Karagumruk. It’s not definitive, but it’s a reminder: this fixture can punish a favourite that assumes the points are already in the bag.

NerdyTips’ model also leans into that upset storyline with a 1X2 pick of “2” (away win) at 7.0, and an expected final score of 1-2 (half-time 0-1). The trust level is low—so it’s not a “max stake” call—but it’s exactly the kind of long-odds angle that fits a match where one side dominates the ball and still loses the key moments.

Best Betting Tips (NerdyTips AI)

Main goals angle

The strongest recommendation is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.73). Confidence is moderate (around 4.3–4.4/10), which is fair: Karagumruk’s recent run reportedly leaned under 2.5, but the broader data points to goals.

Why Over 2.5 makes sense here:
– Süper Lig over 2.5 rate: 52.7% (solid baseline).
– Team profiles: Basaksehir over 2.5 in 47.5% historically; Karagumruk 54.2%.
– Both teams score occurs often enough (Basaksehir 50.3%, Karagumruk 54.2%; league 56.3%) to support a 2-1 or 2-2 type outcome.
– The projected match flow screams chances: 23 total shots combined, with Basaksehir pushing numbers forward.

If Basaksehir score early, the game opens. If Karagumruk score first (as the projected 0-1 half-time suggests), Basaksehir’s possession turns into urgency—and urgency usually brings goals at both ends.

High-risk value play

NerdyTips’ 1X2 call is the away win at 7.0, aligned with the predicted 1-2 full-time. Treat it as a small-stake punt rather than a foundation bet: the market has Basaksehir strongly favoured for a reason, but the value is in the scenario where Basaksehir dominate territory and still get punished by efficiency.

For bettors who like correct-score hunting, you can compare lines and ideas via AI Correct Scores.

Quick Betting Summary

– Best tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73
– Surprise result lean: Karagumruk to win @ 7.0 (small stakes)
– Modelled scores: HT 0-1, FT 1-2
– Expected match pattern: Basaksehir possession-heavy (64%), Karagumruk counter-focused

More Betting Picks Elsewhere

If you’re also building a weekend coupon beyond Turkey, you can find predictions for Campeonato de Portugal Prio Group C—kept separate from this Süper Lig analysis.

Responsible Betting Note

Odds and predictions are not guarantees. Keep stakes sensible, shop for the best price, and avoid chasing losses—especially on long-shot outcomes like an away win at 7.0.