Caldas vs Os Belenenses: Predictions and Tips
About Liga 3 Portugal
Liga 3 stands as Portugal’s third tier, where promotion dreams and relegation battles fuel every matchday. Home advantage is meaningful, with 39.2% of matches ending in a home win, while away teams claim victory in 27% of games. Draws are common, occurring in 33.8% of fixtures. Goals are often at a premium, with only 39.9% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals.
Caldas vs Os Belenenses: Team Insights
Caldas, currently mid-table, have struggled for momentum. Their recent form is worrying: just 1 win in the last 10 matches, averaging only 0.6 goals per game while conceding 1.7. At home, they have notched only 2 wins in their last 7, and are on a five-match losing streak. Historically, 52.3% of their matches go over 2.5 goals, but recent performances suggest a lack of attacking threat.
Os Belenenses, the current league leaders, are in excellent shape. They have won 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding just 0.8. Their away form is particularly strong, with 5 wins in 7 recent road games. Over the past four years, their matches have seen over 1.5 goals 72% of the time, but only 43.9% go over 2.5 goals, indicating a balanced approach.
Their last head-to-head ended 1-1, but form and stats now favor the visitors.
Betting Tips & Predictions
Top Tip: X2 (Os Belenenses win or draw) – Confidence 8.0/10, Odds 1.28
Os Belenenses’ consistency and Caldas’ struggles make the double chance on the away side a solid pick. The away team’s defensive record and recent results support this.
1×2 Prediction: Away Win (2) – Trust 7.9/10, Odds 2.3
With Os Belenenses’ superior form and attacking efficiency, backing them for a straight win is justified, especially as Caldas have not won in five matches.
Under 2.5 Goals – Trust 3.8/10, Odds 1.47
Given both teams’ recent scoring trends and the league’s overall low goal average, under 2.5 goals is a reasonable option. The expected final score is 0:2, with Os Belenenses likely to control possession (52%) and shots (9 vs 7).
Key Stats & Betting Value
– Caldas have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded in their last 10.
– Os Belenenses average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in the same period.
– Both teams have a draw rate around the league average, but Os Belenenses’ win rate is much higher recently.
– The predicted number of corners is 11, with both sides expected to play with discipline (2 yellow cards each).
For more expert football analysis and tips, check out our Conference League predictions.
Summary: Os Belenenses’ form, defensive solidity, and attacking edge make them the clear favorites. The best value is on X2, with a strong case for an away win and a likely low-scoring match. Bettors should keep an eye on the under 2.5 goals market given both teams’ recent output.