Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion: Match Predictions

Derby snapshot: a modern Paraguayan classic with title-race energy

Cerro Porteño vs Libertad Asunción is one of those Division Profesional – Apertura fixtures that rarely feels “just another league game.” Often labeled the Clásico Blanco y Negro, it’s a collision of two heavyweights who expect to be in the conversation for silverware every single year.

This edition kicks off on 2026-01-24 at 23:15 UTC, and even though it lands early in the Apertura calendar, it carries that familiar “six-pointer” edge: three points gained, three points denied to a direct rival.

Current odds (1X2) and what the market is saying

The bookmakers have Cerro Porteño as the clear favorite at home:
Home win: 1.90 | Draw: 3.60 | Away win: 4.75

That price set suggests two things:
1) Cerro’s home advantage is being respected.
2) Libertad are dangerous, but the market sees them needing a near-perfect night to take all three points.

League trends: why Paraguay often rewards disciplined betting

Looking at the Apertura/Division Profesional patterns over the last four years, the league has been balanced and often tight:
– Home wins: 35.5%, Away wins: 30.1%, Draws: 34.4%
– Both teams to score: 47.9%
– Goal lines: Over 1.5 (66.2%), Over 2.5 (43.6%), Over 3.5 (24.9%)

That last number matters for this matchup: only about a quarter of games clear 3.5 goals. In other words, unders are structurally “alive” in this league, especially in high-stakes clashes where risk management beats chaos.

Team profile check: Cerro vs Libertad (long-run + style indicators)

Over a large sample, both clubs look like perennial contenders:
– Cerro Porteño win rate: 52.6% (196 matches)
– Libertad win rate: 53.2% (201 matches)
– Draw tendency: Cerro 29.1%, Libertad 26.4%

Goal environment is also similar:
– Over 2.5 goals: Cerro 43.4% vs Libertad 43.3%
– Over 3.5 goals: Cerro 27.0% vs Libertad 25.9%

So while both teams are capable of open games, the data doesn’t scream “goal-fest.” It points more toward a match that can swing either way—but often stays within a controlled scoring range.

Recent form angle: one side stable, the other volatile

Cerro Porteño’s last 10 matches show a profile bettors love in derby spots:
– 6 wins
– 1.3 goals scored per game
– Only 0.4 conceded per game
– Just 2/10 went over 2.5 goals
They’ve also posted solid control metrics (around 57% possession and 12.6 shots per match), which fits the idea of Cerro managing games rather than turning them into track meets.

Libertad’s last 10 are a different story:
– 2 wins
– 1.3 goals scored per game
– 1.5 conceded per game
– A huge 7/10</b went over 2.5 goals
Possession and shot volume are still healthy (about 59% possession, 12 shots), but the defensive numbers hint at a team that can be pulled into higher-variance matches—great for neutrals, stressful for anyone backing them away at a big price.