Dep. Cuenca vs Delfin: Predictions and Tips
Match Preview and League Context
The Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca sets the stage for this Liga Pro encounter. Deportivo Cuenca, positioned higher in the table, welcomes a Delfin side fighting to improve their standing. Historical league data reveals a clear home advantage in Ecuador’s top flight, with hosts winning 39.7% of matches over the last four years. This context is crucial, as both teams’ recent form contrasts with their longer-term performances. Cuenca has won just 2 of their last 10, a drop from their 33.6% win rate over 125 games. Delfin’s solitary win in 10 is also below their 29.3% historical rate, highlighting a current slump for both clubs.
Team Analysis and Current Form
Deportivo Cuenca
Norberto Carlos Araujo’s side shows inconsistency. A recent 5-0 victory proves their capability, but a 2-0 loss to this same Delfin side on November 1st is a warning. They average 52.9% possession and create over 12 shots per game, but concede 1.6 goals on average recently. Their season-long defensive record (1.06 goals conceded/match) is stronger than this recent trend suggests, indicating potential for a tighter performance at home.
Delfin SC
Coach Nicolás Alejandro Chietino faces a challenge. Delfin’s recent form is concerning, with heavy defeats like an 8-0 loss to SD Aucas. They average only 46% possession and a mere 9 shots per game, scoring just 0.5 goals per match in their last 10. Their defensive record has worsened recently to 2.1 goals conceded per game. However, their draw against Independiente del Valle as big underdogs shows a capacity for resilience.
Betting Tips and AI Predictions
Our predictions, powered by NerdyTips’ AI algorithm, analyze all this data to provide focused betting insights.
1X2 Market: The Home Win
The top tip is a home win for Deportivo Cuenca at 1.49. The AI assigns a 5.5/10 confidence rating. The odds of 1.49 reflect the strong favorite status, which aligns with the historical 39.7% home win league rate and Cuenca’s superior table position. Despite recent poor form, the projection of 62% possession, 16 total shots, and an expected 2-0 final score suggests Cuenca will control proceedings. Delfin’s dire away form and struggle to score make it difficult to back an upset, even with their head-to-head win earlier in November.
Over/Under Goals: Over 1.5
The prediction leans towards over 1.5 goals at 1.31. While the trust rating is a modest 2.7, the statistics strongly support this. 64.9% of Liga Pro matches see over 1.5 goals. Furthermore, 73.6% of Cuenca’s matches and 68.4% of Delfin’s matches exceed this line. Cuenca’s expected 2-0 win hits this mark, and Delfin’s leaky recent defense increases the likelihood.
Supporting Data and Value Angles
The projected stats paint a one-sided picture: 8 corners to 2 for Cuenca, and 5 on-target shots versus Delfin’s 1. The expected halftime score of 1-0 suggests backing Cuenca to be leading at the break could offer value. The yellow card expectation is low at 1-1, indicating a disciplined match. While both teams scored in their last H2H (1-1), the AI’s 2-0 prediction and the fact both teams score in only 46.3% of league matches suggests a clean sheet for the hosts is plausible. For more data-driven analysis like this, explore our Premier League predictions.
In summary, the data converges on a Cuenca victory. Their home advantage, projected dominance in key metrics, and Delfin’s severe offensive struggles make the home win the most probable outcome, even if the short odds require careful bankroll management. The over 1.5 goals line appears a solid foundation for any accumulator.