Guarani vs Ponte Preta: Match Predictions

The Stage is Set for the Derby Campineiro

The oldest rivalry in São Paulo state football is renewed on January 31, 2026, as Guarani hosts Ponte Preta at the iconic Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa. This isn’t just any Paulista A1 fixture; this is the Derby Campineiro, a century-old grudge match where local pride in Campinas outweighs early-season points. The atmosphere will be electric, with Guarani looking to solidify a top-half position and Ponte Preta desperate for a result to lift them from the bottom. With history, passion, and high stakes, this derby is a bettor’s dream.

Form Guide & Historical Context

The form book offers a clear contrast. Guarani has started the 2026 Paulista more solidly, sitting 5th with 8 points from 5 games, showing defensive resilience. Ponte Preta, despite the euphoria of their historic 2025 Série C national title, has struggled out the gate, finding themselves in 16th. History, however, adds spice. This derby dates to 1912 and is famed for its intensity, including a 1914 match abandoned after a fan riot over a penalty! Guarani holds the historical upper hand with 71 wins to Ponte Preta’s 15, but derbies often defy logic.

Managerial Mind Games

The tactical battle pits Guarani’s Matheus Costa, known for building solid, hard-to-beat teams, against Ponte Preta’s Marcelo Fernandes, the architect of their Série C triumph who instills stability. Costa’s organizational skills versus Fernandes’s ability to inspire a cup-winning mentality could decide this tense encounter.

NerdyTips AI Engine’s Top Betting Picks

Our exclusive analysis from the NerdyTips AI engine has crunched the numbers, factoring in current form, historical data, and tactical setups. Here are the key insights for your betting slip.

The Smart Money Bet: 1X (Guarani Win or Draw)

The AI’s top recommendation with high 8.5/10 confidence is 1X at 1.26. This reflects Guarani’s stronger league position, home advantage at the roaring Brinco de Ouro, and Ponte Preta’s poor start. It’s a safer play that banks on the home side not losing this fiercely contested derby.

Value Pick & Score Prediction

For those seeking higher odds, the AI predicts a Guarani win (1) at 1.95 with a 7.8/10 confidence rating. This aligns with the predicted final score of 1-0. Given both teams’ average scoring records (Guarani 1.0, Ponte Preta 0.8 goals per game recently), the AI also strongly recommends Under 2.5 Goals at 1.55 (7.5/10 confidence). Expect a cagey, tactical battle with a likely 0-0 scoreline at halftime.

Final Verdict for Bettors

This derby promises passion over free-flowing football. Ponte Preta’s poor form is a major concern, despite their potential for a derby lift. Guarani, more consistent and at home, is rightly favored. The data points to a low-scoring affair decided by a single moment of quality or a set-piece. For your bets, the AI’s 1X tip offers outstanding security, while the 1-0 correct score and Under 2.5 markets present compelling value. Buckle up for a classic Campineiro where nerve, not just skill, will determine the winner.