Hearts vs Hibernian: Match Predictions

The Stage is Set: A Derby That Could Define a Season

This Tuesday, February 10, 2026, Tynecastle Park hosts one of the most high-stakes Edinburgh Derbies in recent memory. Dubbed the “Moneyball Derby” due to the analytical influence at Hearts, this 669th clash is more than local pride. With Heart of Midlothian remarkably leading the Scottish Premiership and Hibernian surging toward the European spots, the capital is set for a collision that could define the final third of the season. For bettors, it’s a prime-time fixture packed with value, narrative, and statistical intrigue.

League Landscape: Understanding the Scottish Premiership Context

To gauge this derby’s potential, we must look at the league’s fabric. Over the past four years, the Scottish Premiership has shown a distinct home advantage, with hosts winning 39.7% of games. Draws are relatively common at 33.0%, while away wins occur 27.3% of the time. For goal markets, note that over 2.5 goals lands in 45.2% of matches, suggesting a moderate scoring environment. However, a more conservative under 3.5 goals is a solid baseline, hitting in 74.8% of all games. This context is crucial when assessing the value in the match odds and totals.

Team Deep Dive: Form, Tactics, and Key Absences

Heart of Midlothian: The Title-Chasing Jambos

Hearts are the story of the season, sitting atop the table and threatening the Old Firm’s dominance. Their form is strong, with 6 wins in their last 10, averaging 1.6 goals scored and a stingy 0.8 conceded. However, they arrive with a significant injury crisis. Talismanic striker Lawrence Shankland is out long-term, midfield engine Cammy Devlin is sidelined, and key defender Craig Halkett is suspended. Manager Derek McInnes, backed by Tony Bloom’s Jamestown Analytics, has built a tactically flexible side. Expect Hearts to dominate possession—projected at 62%—and create volume, with an expected 13 shots (5 on target). Their home form is formidable, unbeaten at Tynecastle in the league all season.

Hibernian: The Momentum-Fueled Hibees

Under David Gray, Hibernian are the form team, losing just once in their last eight. They’ve won 4 of their last 10, scoring 1.4 goals per game but conceding 1.3. Gray often employs a 3-5-2 designed for quick transitions, perfect for exploiting spaces if Hearts overcommit. New signing Ante Šuto, a hero after his debut winner, adds aerial threat, while the pace of Martin Boyle is always a derby wildcard. They’ll miss captain Grant Hanley but welcome back Josh Campbell. Historically, 55.0% of Hibs’ matches see Both Teams Score, highlighting their attacking intent but defensive vulnerability.

The Head-to-Head & Psychological Edge

In their last meeting on October 4, 2025, Hearts secured a narrow 1-0 victory. The historical stats reveal a pattern: Hearts win 45.5% of their matches overall, compared to Hibernian’s 35.6%. However, derbies often defy logic. Hibs’ recent morale is sky-high after a draw with Rangers and a dramatic comeback win, while Hearts’ mood mixes title belief with anxiety over their mounting injury list. This intangible “club morale” factor is a critical, often overlooked, element for bettors.

Betting Tips & Market Analysis

Match Result (1X2) & Value Pick

The bookmakers have installed Hearts as clear favorites at 1.75 for the home win. The draw is at 3.75, and a Hibernian away victory offers a juicy 4.80. Our AI model, NerdyTips AI NT 4.0, strongly aligns with the market’s view. The top tip is 1 (Home Win) with a high 7.8/10 confidence. The 1X2 prediction further reinforces this with a 7.9/10 confidence. Despite the injury woes, Hearts’ underlying home strength and Hibernian’s historical lower win rate (35.6%) make the 1.75 odds for a Hearts victory the standout value play in this market. It’s not without risk, but the data points to a Jambos edge.

Goal Markets: Under/Over & Correct Score

This is where it gets interesting. Both teams have a high frequency of matches with over 2.5 goals (Hearts 55.6%, Hibs 58.3%). However, the AI’s prediction for this specific fixture is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.33 odds, albeit with a lower 4.4/10 confidence. Given the derby pressure, Hearts’ key absences in attack, and Hibs’ likely cautious mid-block, a cagey affair is plausible. The predicted final score is 2-1 to Hearts, which fits both the “Home Win” tip and leans toward the higher-scoring side of the under 3.5 market. For halftime, a 1-0 lead for Hearts is projected, reflecting their expected early dominance and possession control.

Supplementary Bets & Prop Market Insights

The detailed projections offer fertile ground for prop bets. Expect Hearts to control the game, with a 62% possession forecast. In the shots market, Hearts are projected for 13 total shots to Hibs’ 11, but with more on target (5 vs. 3). Corner bets could see value in Hearts -2.5 corners (7 vs. 3 projected). Discipline is another angle; the projection of 0 yellow cards for Hearts vs. 2 for Hibernian suggests the away side may be forced into more tactical fouls during transitions.

The Final Verdict for Bettors

While derbies are famously unpredictable, the confluence of data, form, and situation creates a compelling case. The smart money, according to the AI synthesis, is on a Hearts victory. The odds of 1.75 present solid value for a side leading the league at home. For those seeking higher odds, a Hearts Win and Both Teams to Score could be a savvy alternative, aligning with the 2-1 correct score prediction and Hibernian’s attacking tendencies. Always remember to bet responsibly, but for this historic Edinburgh Derby, the numbers and narrative point towards a vital home win in Gorgie.