Liga 3 AI Tips & Predictions

Os Belenenses vs 1º Dezembro: the context

Liga 3 serves up a fixture with clear stakes at both ends of ambition. Os Belenenses arrive as leaders and will treat this as another step in protecting first place, while 1º Dezembro travel as a mid-table side still searching for week-to-week reliability. Kick-off is set for 21:00 UTC on 2026-01-17, and the market opens with the hosts strongly fancied: Home win 1.55, Draw 3.65, Away win 6.0.

If you’re building a coupon, it’s the kind of match where price, game state and patience matter as much as team names. For more picks across leagues, you can also check today football predictions.

Form guide: leaders with momentum, visitors with questions

Os Belenenses: results that match the table

Belenenses’ recent run backs up their status. Over the last 10 games they’ve won 7, scoring 1.7 per match and conceding just 0.9 on average. That’s the profile of a promotion contender: efficient, hard to unpick, and usually in control of territory.

Over a broader snapshot of this season, they’ve been converting dominance into points (32 from 15 matches), and their latest away win continued that rhythm. The numbers suggest a team comfortable dictating tempo rather than chasing it.

1º Dezembro: low output, tight margins

1º Dezembro’s last 10 tells a different story: 1 win, 0.7 goals scored per game, 1.2 conceded. Only one of those matches went over 2.5 goals, which hints at a side often playing within narrow scorelines—sometimes by design, sometimes by limitation.

Their league record (15 points from 15) fits that picture: plenty of draws, not enough wins. They can be awkward, but they rarely turn matches into shootouts.

What the league trends say (and what they don’t)

Liga 3 has been a balanced betting league over the last four years: home wins 37.6%, draws 33.8%, away wins 28.7%. That draw rate is a reminder not to blindly follow short home prices.

Goal trends are also telling: over 2.5 goals lands in just 40.8% of matches, while both teams score in 51.6%. In other words, the league often lives in the 0–0, 1–0, 1–1 territory—useful context when evaluating totals.

Tactical angle: control vs containment

Os Belenenses are projected to have 58% possession, with an estimated 10 shots (5 on target). 1º Dezembro are forecast at 42% possession, 5 shots (2 on target). Corners lean the same way (6–2), suggesting Belenenses should spend long spells in the attacking third.

But the expected scoreline from NerdyTips’ model is 0–1, with 0–0 at half-time. That contradiction is exactly why this match is interesting for bettors: dominance doesn’t always equal goals, especially against a team likely to defend deep and accept long periods without the ball.

NerdyTips predictions: how to bet it

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.62, confidence 4.1/10)

This is the platform’s top angle, and it aligns with several signals:
– Liga 3 is naturally conservative on totals (under 2.5 hits more often than not).
– 1º Dezembro’s recent matches are consistently low-scoring.
– The model expects a 0–0 half-time, which is often the best friend of an under ticket.

The confidence isn’t sky-high, so staking discipline matters, but the logic is coherent: if 1º Dezembro keep it tight early, the match can become a grind.

1X2 Tip: X2 (odds 2.4, confidence 1.4/10)

This is the spicy one—and the confidence rating reflects that. The market says Belenenses should win more often than not, and their form supports it. So why consider X2 at all?

Because Liga 3 draws are common, and the model’s expected 0–1 suggests a scenario where Belenenses control the ball but struggle to turn pressure into a clean lead. If you’re hunting value rather than safety, X2 is a contrarian play built on the idea that 1º Dezembro can survive and nick something—similar to the kind of unexpected away points they’ve managed before.

Final read

Belenenses look the better team, with the stronger season and the stronger trendline. But the betting angle leans toward a match that stays tense and measured. If the first half ends level, the under strengthens—and the outsider/draw positions suddenly look less fanciful.