Peñarol vs Torque AI Betting Tips
Peñarol vs Montevideo City Torque: match preview
The Apertura curtain rises at the Estadio Campeón del Siglo, and in Uruguay that means pressure, noise, and a first-round result that can shape the mood for weeks. Peñarol start 2026 needing to calm an anxious fanbase after a frustrating 2025, while Montevideo City Torque arrive with the calm confidence of a project that’s been steadily upgraded under the City Football Group umbrella.
Kick-off is set for 2026-02-07 at 23:30 UTC, and the market has Peñarol as the narrow favorite:
1X2 odds: Home 1.98 | Draw 3.35 | Away 4.15
If you like to compare models and markets, keep an eye on the full slate of Football Predictions before placing your stake.
Why this game feels different in Round 1
For Peñarol, this is a “start fast or suffer” moment. Diego Aguirre is building for the long term, but in Montevideo the long term always begins with winning today. The Carboneros have looked defensively serious, yet not always ruthless in front of goal—something that showed in a low-scoring Supercopa night that finished 0-0 before penalties.
Torque, meanwhile, are trying to stop being “the nice footballing idea” and become a weekly points machine. Marcelo Méndez has pushed a proactive identity: possession, width, and midfielders arriving in waves. They ended 2025 with better rhythm and have carried that energy into preparation.
Tactical story: pressing vs possession
Peñarol (Diego Aguirre) usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 built around intensity: win it, go forward quickly, and let the creative hub feed the striker. The wide players are asked to work—Uruguayan football loves effort, and Aguirre demands it to protect transitions.
Torque (Marcelo Méndez) lean toward a 4-3-3 with the ball. They want to stretch the pitch, keep it moving, and create overloads. The risk? If Peñarol’s press lands early, Torque can be forced into rushed passes in their own half.
Key players and subplots bettors should know
Peñarol
– Leonardo Fernández: the passer who can turn a tight match with one dead ball or one threaded ball.
– Matías Arezo: the reference point up top; if Peñarol score, he’s often involved.
– Washington Aguerre: leadership and shot-stopping—valuable in a game where momentum swings fast.
Torque
– Gary Kagelmacher: the veteran center-back returning to a stadium he knows well, now wearing the “other” colors. That narrative matters in Uruguay.
– Esteban Obregón: pace to attack space if Peñarol’s line steps up.
– Lucas Pino: a connector in midfield, important for Méndez’s “regularity” idea.
Injuries and absences
Peñarol have long-term issues with Eduardo Darias and Tomás Olase (ACL recoveries). Maximiliano Olivera is a doubt with a muscle problem, and Franco Escobar is out due to a late pre-season suspension.
Torque are missing Nahuel Leivas and Fabricio Silveira (ACL injuries), while Gonzalo Montes is expected to miss out with a knee issue.
Absences matter most for rhythm: early-season matches can look messy when key pieces are missing, which often supports lower goal expectations.
What the numbers say (league trends + team stats)
Over the last four years in the Uruguayan Primera División – Apertura:
– Home wins: 36.5%
– Draws: 36.3%
– Away wins: 27.3%
That’s a league where draws are common and away wins aren’t easy.
Goals-wise:
– Over 1.5 goals: 64.8%
– Over 2.5 goals: 40.5%
– Over 3.5 goals: 21.4%
So, big scorelines are the exception, not the rule.
Team profiles add context:
– Peñarol win rate: 58.2% (last 177)
– Torque win rate: 37.8% (last 143)
– Both teams to score: Peñarol 40.7%, Torque 53.8%
Recent form is a bit tricky:
– Peñarol last 10: 3 wins, 1.0 scored / 0.7 conceded per game (tight matches)
– Torque last 10: 5 wins, 1.7 scored / 1.1 conceded per game (more open)
That contrast is exactly why the betting angles below focus on Peñarol’s ability to score, but still respect the league’s tendency to keep totals under control.
NerdyTips AI NT 4.0 picks (explained simply)
Best bet: HS (Peñarol to score) @ 1.23 (confidence 4.3/10)
This is the safest angle NerdyTips points to: Peñarol finding the net at home. Even when Aguirre’s side aren’t flowing, they usually generate enough pressure, set pieces, and second balls at the Campeón del Siglo to produce at least one goal.
It also fits the expected script: Peñarol starting fast, feeding off the crowd, and trying to avoid another frustrating opening-day story.
1X2 prediction: Peñarol to win (1) @ 1.98 (confidence 4.1/10)
The price is attractive for a home giant, but the confidence is modest—and that’s important. Torque have shown they can be awkward here, including a famous 2-2 away draw in the past when few gave them a chance. They’re also capable of “giant-killer” performances, and they’ve beaten Peñarol in cup football before.
Still, Peñarol’s overall win rate, home advantage, and Torque’s injury list lean the value slightly toward the home win at nearly evens.
Goals market: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.28 (confidence 4.2/10)
This aligns with league-wide scoring patterns (only 21.4% go over 3.5) and with Peñarol’s recent trend of controlled games (0.7 conceded per match across the last 10). Torque can score, but an opening-round away match at this stadium often becomes a game of survival phases, not constant end-to-end attacks.
Correct score lean
NerdyTips projects 2-1, with a half-time lean of 1-0. That reads like a classic Peñarol night: early push, advantage at the break, then Torque forcing a response after the interval.
Responsible betting note
Odds move, lineups change, and early-season football can be unpredictable. Keep stakes sensible, shop for the best price, and treat predictions as guidance—not guarantees.