SC Farense vs Oliveirense: Predictions and Tips
Match snapshot for bettors
SC Farense welcome UD Oliveirense in Portugal’s Segunda Liga with the market leaning heavily to the hosts: Home win 1.62, Draw 3.9, Away win 5.75. On paper, that looks straightforward—yet the data-driven angle points to a potential away surprise in a match that profiles as tense, low-scoring, and decided by fine margins.
Kick-off: 2026-01-17 at 11:00 UTC.
Why an upset is on the table
This fixture has “six-pointer” written all over it. Farense sit 13th on 20 points, Oliveirense 17th on 18 (after 17 matches). That context matters for betting: relegation-pressure games often tighten up, reduce risk-taking, and swing on one moment—exactly the type of environment where a short-priced home favourite can get dragged into a scrap.
Farense’s recent run underlines the fragility: a 0-1 loss to Portimonense (Jan 3) and a 0-0 with Paços de Ferreira (Dec 28). At home across their last eight league games, they’ve averaged just 0.88 points per match, scoring 6 and conceding 12—numbers that don’t scream “banker”.
Oliveirense arrive off a wild 3-4 defeat to Feirense (Jan 11) after narrow losses to Felgueiras (1-0) and Lusitânia (0-1). Results are poor, but the pattern is important: they’ve recently leaned into tighter scorelines, and reports note under 2.5 goals landing in their last five matches. That’s the kind of profile that can keep them alive deep into the game—and make 5.75 on the away win look more interesting than it first appears.
League trends: Segunda Liga is built for tight games
Across the last four years in Segunda Liga (NT4.0 dataset), home wins land 39.8%, away wins 29.5%, and draws 30.7%. That’s a relatively balanced split compared to many leagues—away results are not rare.
Goals also lean conservative:
– Over 3.5 goals happens in only 22.4% of matches (so under 3.5 hits 77.6%).
– Over 2.5 goals lands 43.4% (so under 2.5 is slightly more common).
In other words, the league environment supports unders and keeps underdogs in the contest longer—useful context when the favourite is priced at 1.62.
Team form and style indicators
SC Farense: possession without punch?
Farense’s last 10 matches: 2 wins, 0.9 goals scored per game, 1.2 conceded. Only 3 of those 10 went over 2.5 goals. They’ve averaged 48.9% possession and 8.67 shots per match—modest output for a side expected to control a home game.
NerdyTips’ match model expects Farense to have more of the ball here (57% possession) and more attacking volume (10 shots, 5 on target). That suggests territory and pressure—but it doesn’t guarantee efficiency, especially with a team that’s recently struggled to turn control into goals.
Key names who can change that: Cláudio Falcão (3 league goals), plus Diego Dorregaray and Derick Poloni (2 each). If Farense win, it likely comes from one of these contributors finding a moment in a match that may not offer many.
UD Oliveirense: dangerous if they stay close
Oliveirense’s last 10: 3 wins, 1.2 goals scored per game, 1.6 conceded, with 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Possession (48%) and shots (8 per match) are similar to Farense’s recent baseline—so the gap between these teams may be smaller than the odds imply.
The model projects Oliveirense to produce 7 shots and 3 on target—enough to score once if they’re clinical. Their key scorers back that up: Bruno Silva (4), Foe Ondoa (3), plus João Silva and Bura (2 each). In a low-scoring setup, one well-timed transition or set-piece can be decisive.
Tactical angle: Silas vs Jorge Pinto
Farense coach Silas may prioritise control and caution, especially given recent results and the stakes. Oliveirense, led by Jorge Pinto (appointed July 1, 2025), have every incentive to keep their block compact and play for moments—particularly away from home where a draw already has value.
The NerdyTips projections fit that script:
– Expected corners: 11 total (Farense 8, Oliveirense 3) → home pressure and territory.
– Expected cards: 2–2 → competitive but not chaotic.
– Predicted half-time: 0:0 → slow burn, high tension.
If it’s level late, the psychological pressure shifts to the favourite—and that’s when away upsets become live.
AI betting tips (NerdyTips)
The numbers point to a match where goals are at a premium and the underdog has a realistic path.
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.37, confidence 7.2/10)
This aligns strongly with league-wide scoring rates (only 22.4% over 3.5) and both teams’ recent tendency to play matches that don’t run away. Even Oliveirense’s 3-4 loss looks more like an outlier than a new norm given the broader “unders” trend around them.
Value lean: 1X2 upset pick
Away win (2) at 5.75 (trust level 2.1)
This is clearly a higher-risk punt, but it matches the match narrative: Farense expected to dominate the ball, Oliveirense expected to absorb pressure, and a game state that could be decided by one goal.
Correct score ideas
Expected final score: 0:1
Predicted half-time: 0:0
If you’re playing derivatives, this supports angles like “Oliveirense to score first” or “draw at half-time” (price-dependent), but the safest positioning remains the goals market.
Stats check: do the team profiles fit the tips?
– Farense matches over 3.5: 26.1% historically (so under 3.5 is still the majority).
– Oliveirense matches over 3.5: 34.5% historically (higher), but recent notes point to a run of under 2.5 results.
– Both teams to score: Farense 47.0%, Oliveirense 58.6% → mixed signal, but the predicted 0:1 implies a one-sided scoring outcome, consistent with a tight relegation battle.
Overall, the under 3.5 recommendation is well-supported by league context, recent form, and the projected 0:0 at the break.
Extra angles and betting discipline
Farense did win the last recorded head-to-head (2-0 on 2022-10-30), but this season’s table pressure changes the feel of the game. Also worth noting: both clubs have shown they can beat the odds—Farense’s 1-2 away win at Guimarães as a 5.5 outsider is a reminder that variance is real in Portuguese football, while Oliveirense’s 0-0 away draw at União de Leiria also came when the market expected little.
Bet responsibly: keep stakes proportional, especially on the away win pick, which is priced big for a reason.
More predictions
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For a separate competition (not related to this match), you can also browse predictions for Serie D Girone F (Italy).