Wexford vs Dundalk: AI Football Predictions
Wexford vs Dundalk: In-Depth Betting Preview and Predictions
Overview: First Division Stakes High
Wexford host Dundalk in a First Division fixture that holds plenty of intrigue for punters. With Dundalk travelling as strong favourites (odds of 1.58 for the away win), all eyes are on whether Wexford can spring a surprise or if Dundalk’s recent form will see them return with three points. Our analysis, powered by NerdyTips’ AI system and informed by four years of Irish First Division data, offers a clear perspective on the key markets.
Analysing the Odds and Market Movement
Bookmakers have installed Dundalk as the clear favourite, with the away win paying just 1.58. That price reflects Dundalk’s solid record: they’ve won 40.3% of their last 124 matches, and come into this fixture with six wins from their last ten outings, conceding just 0.5 goals per game. Wexford, meanwhile, are definite underdogs at 5.08, but their recent away win at Cobh Ramblers as 5.5 outsiders shows they shouldn’t be written off completely. The draw is priced at 3.84, which aligns with the league’s historic draw rate of 35.3%.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (1.34)
Our top AI-powered tip for this match is under 3.5 goals, with a confidence rating of 6.8/10 at odds of 1.34. This selection stands up to scrutiny when you dig into the numbers:
– Only 27.1% of First Division matches over the last four years have finished with four or more goals.
– Dundalk’s games have gone over 3.5 goals just 22.6% of the time in their last 124 matches.
– Wexford’s record is slightly higher at 31.1%, but still well below half.
Looking at recent form, only 4 of Dundalk’s last 10 matches and 5 of Wexford’s last 10 have seen over 2.5 goals—let alone four. Both sides are defensively disciplined, with Dundalk conceding just 0.5 goals per game across their last ten, and Wexford letting in 1.3 on average. This trend supports the under 3.5 goals market, making it a compelling and statistically sound selection.
1X2 Market: Dundalk to Win (1.58)
The AI’s 1X2 prediction is an away win for Dundalk, albeit with a moderate trust level (1.5/3). This is reasonable: Dundalk are the more consistent side, taking 6 wins from their last 10 fixtures and boasting a season-long win rate of 40.3%. Their defensive solidity and ability to grind out results on the road are key factors, especially against a Wexford side that have managed just four wins in their last ten.
It’s worth noting, however, that the First Division is known for its unpredictability, with home teams winning 36.0% of matches and away teams only slightly behind at 28.8%. This means Dundalk’s price is fair, but not immune to the kind of upsets Wexford have pulled off before. Still, all the data points towards Dundalk having the edge.
Correct Score & Half-Time Predictions
The AI’s predicted correct score is 0:1 to Dundalk, with a half-time scoreline of 0:0. This lines up with both teams’ recent scoring patterns. Dundalk average 1.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game over their last ten, while Wexford average 1.5 goals for and 1.3 against. However, Dundalk’s defensive numbers suggest they’re capable of stifling Wexford’s attack, especially in the first half.
A goalless first half is common in tight First Division fixtures, and both teams are used to cagey openings. Bettors looking for value in the halftime/fulltime or correct score markets should consider these trends.
League Trends and Team Insights
The First Division is a league where goals aren’t always guaranteed. Just 45.5% of matches over the last four years have featured more than 2.5 goals, and only 27.1% have seen over 3.5. Both teams to score has landed in 45.2% of matches, but this fixture’s defensive profiles suggest it’s not a given.
Wexford are a team that can occasionally spring a shock—evidenced by their impressive win away at Cobh Ramblers at odds of 5.5. That said, their overall home record is patchy, and their defence can be vulnerable. Dundalk, by contrast, are efficient on the road and rarely concede in bunches. Their recent draw away to Galway United, secured at huge odds, underlines their resilience and ability to get a result even when the odds are stacked against them.
Goals Markets: Under/Over Analysis
While 83.6% of Wexford’s matches and 68.5% of Dundalk’s have seen over 1.5 goals, the step up to over 2.5 goals is significant—down to 57.4% for Wexford and 45.2% for Dundalk. For over 3.5 goals, both teams fall well below a third of their fixtures. This supports the under 3.5 goals tip as the best value on the board.
Verdict: Where’s the Value?
The data and AI predictions are in clear agreement: Dundalk should have the upper hand here, but the best value lies in the goals market.
– Best Bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34 – Both teams’ defensive records, league averages, and recent trends make this a strong selection.
– Dundalk to win at 1.58 – Worth considering for those confident in the away side, but the price is more suitable for multiples than singles.
– Correct score 0:1 – A speculative punt, but one that aligns well with the underlying data.
This fixture is unlikely to be a free-scoring affair, and Dundalk’s well-organised approach on the road should see them edge out a narrow win. For punters, focusing on the goals market, particularly under 3.5 goals, looks the most sensible play.
Final Thoughts
Wexford have shown they can defy the odds, but Dundalk’s consistency and defensive strength make them the smart pick. The First Division’s historical stats back up a cautious approach in the goals markets. Stick with the numbers, and there’s every reason to believe this match will stay tight, with Dundalk nicking it by the narrowest of margins.