Preview
If you’re looking for an AEK Athens FC vs AEL Larissa prediction that feels more like a friendly chat than a maths exam, you’re in the right place. The latest match details are simple: Saturday, March 7, 2026, kick-off at 16.50 GMT (18:00 local time), with AEK welcoming Larissa in Super League 1. And yes, this is one of those fixtures where the stadium mood says “home win,” even before you check the prices.
On paper, it’s a classic big-budget host versus a scrappy visitor. AEK’s squad value sits around €71.57m, while Larissa are closer to €11.20m. That gap usually shows up in territory, passing volume, and how often the away keeper needs to do overtime.
AEK also have that “we’ve seen worse” calm in big moments. Just ask Fiorentina: back on 2025-11.25, AEK went to Italy as a 5.3 outsider and came back with a shock 0–1 win. Larissa, meanwhile, earned respect in their own surprise result on 2026.52-22, holding PAOK to a 1–1 draw when PAOK were priced at 1.52. So Larissa can compete when the script says they shouldn’t—just don’t expect them to volunteer the ball.
Expect AEK to try to pin Larissa back early, moving the ball side-to-side and forcing the visitors to defend deep. Larissa’s likely plan is familiar: stay compact, slow the rhythm, and hope a set piece or transition creates something. It’s not glamorous, but it has kept plenty of underdogs alive for 70 minutes before the “uh-oh” moment arrives.
Now to the numbers, where our AEK Athens FC vs AEL Larissa prediction becomes very direct. The market odds are Home 1.25, Draw 6.5, Away 14.0, and NerdyTips’ best tip is 1 (AEK win) with a perfect trust rating of 10.0/10 at 1.25. The 1X2 model agrees: 1 with confidence 10.0 and odds 1.25. That’s the rare moment when the data and common sense shake hands.
The projected half-time score is 1–0, with a full-time call of 2–1. That fits the story: AEK controlling, creating, and likely winning—while Larissa still having one moment to remind everyone that football enjoys a joke. For head to head-style expectations, this one reads as AEK territory all day, and Larissa resistance until it breaks.
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9
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5
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2
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AEL Larissa |
21-Sep-25
1:1
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
AEL Larissa |
15-Feb-21
2:4
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
AEK Athens FC |
22-Nov-20
4:1
| AEL Larissa ![]() |
AEK Athens FC |
19-Jan-20
3:0
| AEL Larissa ![]() |
AEL Larissa |
05-Oct-19
0:0
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
AEK Athens FC |
21-Apr-19
0:1
| AEL Larissa ![]() |
AEL Larissa |
16-Dec-18
0:0
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
AEK Athens FC |
18-Apr-18
1:0
| AEL Larissa ![]() |
AEL Larissa |
01-Mar-18
2:1
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
AEL Larissa |
20-Jan-18
0:0
| AEK Athens FC ![]() |
| 01 Mar | D |
Volos
| 2 |
AEK Athens FC
| 2 |
| 22 Feb | W |
AEK Athens FC
| 4 |
Levadiakos
| 0 |
| 15 Feb | D |
PAOK
| 0 |
AEK Athens FC
| 0 |
| 08 Feb | W |
Panserraikos
| 0 |
AEK Athens FC
| 4 |
| 01 Feb | D |
AEK Athens FC
| 1 |
Olympiakos
| 1 |
| 24 Jan | W |
Asteras T
| 0 |
AEK Athens FC
| 1 |
| 18 Jan | W |
AEK Athens FC
| 4 |
Panathinaikos
| 0 |
| 14 Jan | L |
AEK Athens FC
| 0 |
OFI Crete
| 1 |
| 11 Jan | D |
Aris
| 1 |
AEK Athens FC
| 1 |
| 21 Dec | W |
AEK Athens FC
| 2 |
OFI Crete
| 1 |
| 28 Feb | L | OFI Crete |
3 | AEL Larissa |
0 |
| 22 Feb | D | AEL Larissa |
1 | PAOK |
1 |
| 15 Feb | D | Panathinaikos |
1 | AEL Larissa |
1 |
| 07 Feb | L | AEL Larissa |
1 | Panetolikos |
4 |
| 31 Jan | W | Volos |
0 | AEL Larissa |
2 |
| 24 Jan | W | AEL Larissa |
1 | Panserraikos |
0 |
| 18 Jan | W | AEL Larissa |
1 | Aris |
0 |
| 10 Jan | D | Kifisia |
1 | AEL Larissa |
1 |
| 21 Dec | D | AEL Larissa |
0 | Atromitos |
0 |
| 13 Dec | L | Levadiakos |
3 | AEL Larissa |
0 |
Greece - Super League 1| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Olympiakos | 23 | 42-11 | 53 |
| 2 |
AEK Athens FC | 23 | 43-15 | 53 |
| 3 |
PAOK | 22 | 44-14 | 50 |
| 4 |
Levadiakos | 23 | 49-30 | 39 |
| 5 |
Panathinaikos | 22 | 34-23 | 39 |
| 6 |
Aris | 23 | 20-25 | 28 |
| 7 |
OFI | 22 | 30-37 | 28 |
| 8 |
Atromitos | 23 | 24-27 | 27 |
| 9 |
Volos NFC | 23 | 23-34 | 27 |
| 10 |
Kifisia | 22 | 28-33 | 24 |
| 11 |
Panetolikos | 23 | 22-37 | 21 |
| 12 |
Larisa | 23 | 21-37 | 21 |
| 13 |
Asteras | 23 | 20-37 | 16 |
| 14 |
Panserraikos | 23 | 15-55 | 12 |