AEL Larissa vs PAOK Prediction

AEL Larissa vs PAOK prediction: points, pressure, and patience

If you’re looking for an AEL Larissa vs PAOK prediction that makes sense of a strange week in Greece, start with the basics: this Super League 1 game kicks off on Sunday, February 22, 2026 at the AEL Arena (16:00 GMT), and it comes with two very different moods. PAOK are chasing the top spots, AEL are trying to stay calm and stable, and everyone is doing it while juggling injuries, suspensions, and a packed calendar. For betting fans, that mix is exactly why the AEL Larissa vs PAOK prediction market is so interesting.

Where both teams stand right now

On paper, the table gap is big. PAOK sit 3rd with 46 points and still have title pressure, trailing leaders AEK. AEL Larissa are down in 12th on 20 points, but their recent story is not only about survival—it’s about finding a working identity under a new coach.

• PAOK form context: a rough run of high-intensity games across league and Europe, including draws with AEK and Aris, plus a painful 4-2 loss to Lyon in the Europa League.
• AEL form context: despite a heavy 4-1 home loss to Panetolikos, they’ve looked more organized lately and even grabbed a huge 1-1 away draw at Panathinaikos on 2026-02-15.

Tactics: one team pressing, one team absorbing

AEL’s coach Savvas Pantelidis (in charge since December 2025) has leaned into a disciplined, low-block plan. They often sit deep, keep the space tight, and try to turn the match into an argument rather than a sprint. Their underlying defensive numbers have been solid (xGA often around 1.0 or lower), and the recent arrival of Gaël Kakouta should add a bit of calm decision-making when they finally break forward.

PAOK, under Razvan Lucescu, are typically more direct about control: a high-pressing 4-2-3-1, pushing territory and forcing mistakes. The catch is the schedule. With a Europa League playoff tie against Celta Vigo (Feb 19 and Feb 26) around this fixture, rotation feels inevitable.

Team news that could shape the rhythm

Both squads are depleted, but PAOK’s list is the kind that makes a coach check the training ground twice.

• PAOK absences: Despodov, Ivanušec, Giakoumakis, Konstantelias, Pelkas, Meïté, Lovren, Živković, and goalkeeper Pavlenka are all expected out.
• AEL absences: defender Pantelakis is suspended; Melissas, Sourlis, and Ngoy are injured; Staikos is a doubt.

Lucescu has called the congestion “unfair,” and he’s asked the fans to back the younger replacements. Pantelidis, meanwhile, has talked about emotional control against the “Big Four”—basically: don’t panic if PAOK have the ball for long spells.

Head to head notes and the “under” feeling

The head to head trend is not kind to AEL: PAOK are unbeaten in 19 straight meetings (15 wins, 4 draws), and AEL haven’t beaten them in the league since 2018. Also, AEL matches often lean low-scoring—many recent games land under 2.5 total goals, which matches their “keep it tight” approach.

NerdyTips picks: odds, total goals, and a sensible scoreline

Now to the betting odds and what our model does with them. The market prices this as a clear away lean: Home win 10.25, Draw 5.0, Away win 1.35. With PAOK’s squad value around €96.97m versus AEL’s €11.20m, it’s not shocking—but injuries make the question more about “how” than “if.”

• Best 1X2 tip: Away win (2) at 1.35, trust rating 8.8/10.
• Total goals tip: Under 3.5 goals at 1.4, trust score 7.0/10.
• Predicted score: 0-2 (half-time 0-1).

The match stats projection supports that story: PAOK around 70% possession, AEL around 30%. Shots are estimated at 12-7 for PAOK, with on-target edging 4-3. Corners lean away too (5.0, 7 total). And if AEL spend long minutes defending, the model also expects more frustration: 3 yellow cards for AEL, 1 for PAOK.

How it may play out for bettors

Think of PAOK as the team with the remote control, even if the batteries are running low due to injuries. AEL’s plan is likely to be: defend, delay, and hope Kakouta can spark a counter. But with the head to head history, the possession gap, and the betting odds all pointing the same direction, the strongest AEL Larissa vs PAOK prediction stays simple: PAOK to win, in a game that doesn’t explode in total goals. If you want a neat narrative bet, 0-2 fits the tactical picture—and it’s also the one our numbers keep coming back to.