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Match Prediction

AFS vs Arouca Prediction

Finished

AFS

€16.70m

17 Jan13:00
0 : 1

Arouca

€21.70m

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AFS vs Arouca Prediction Primeira Liga

AFS vs Arouca Prediction: Stats, Odds, and Betting Tips

It’s bottom versus almost-bottom in the Primeira Liga, and while the neutrals may not be circling January 17 on their calendars, the AFS vs Arouca prediction is sure to interest sports betting fans looking for value. With both teams desperate for points and the bookmakers offering enticing betting odds, this fixture at the Estadio do CD das Aves could be more telling than the league table suggests.

Current Form, Head to Head, and Team News

Let’s not sugarcoat it—AFS (also known as AVS Futebol SAD) are having a season to forget. Sitting rock-bottom in 18th place, they’ve collected just 4 points from 17 matches, and are still searching for their first league win. Their stats paint a bleak picture: 13 losses, 4 draws, an average of 0.6 goals scored, and a worrying 2.5 conceded per game. At home, AVS have been equally uninspiring, failing to win any of their last three matches in front of their fans.

Arouca, meanwhile, aren’t exactly setting the world alight. Vasco Seabra’s side are 16th, two points clear of the relegation zone, with 3 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats. Their away form is especially shaky—just 1 point from their last 6 road trips. Still, they have a slightly better attack, scoring 18 goals so far (1 per game), though their defense is also leaky, conceding 42.

  • Head to head history is firmly on Arouca’s side. They’ve not lost to AVS in their last six meetings, winning five and drawing one. Their last encounter in August 2025 ended 3-1 to Arouca.
  • Key players to watch: For AVS, Oscar Perea (2 goals) is their brightest spark. Arouca’s main man is Alfonso Trezza, who’s notched up 6 goals and 2 assists.
  • Both teams have some injury headaches: AVS are without Diego Duarte, Guillem Molina, and Tiago Galletto, while Arouca miss Mateo Flores.

With both sides struggling, expect AVS to focus on defense, while Arouca will likely try to control possession—recent stats predict them seeing 57% of the ball, compared to AVS’s 43%. Both teams average a modest 11 shots per game, with just 3 on target each, so don’t expect a goal-fest.

Betting Odds, Tips, and Our AFS vs Arouca Prediction

Bookmakers have set the odds as follows:

  • Home win: 2.8
  • Draw: 3.2
  • Away win: 2.82

The value here is tricky. Arouca are favorites, but not by much—reflecting their poor away form and AVS’s slight uptick after a shock win away to Guimaraes in December. Still, with AVS yet to win at home and Arouca’s dominance in the head to head, it’s a tough call.

  1. NerdyTips’ best bet: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.25, trust 2.8/10). Both teams have struggled to score, and recent stats suggest a cagey affair.
  2. 1X2 prediction: 1X (AVS double chance) at 1.57 (trust 2.0/10). There’s a sense that AVS might finally get something at home, even if it’s just a draw.
  3. Expected final score: 2:0 to AVS, with a predicted halftime score of 1:0.

Other stats to keep in mind for your AFS vs Arouca prediction:

  • Both sides are expected to rack up 11 shots and 3 on target.
  • Total corners predicted: 9 (4 for AVS, 5 for Arouca).
  • Yellow cards: 2 apiece—so don’t expect a bloodbath, just a bit of frustration.
  • Squad values: AVS at €16.70m, Arouca at €21.70m—a modest gap, but it reflects the away side’s slightly deeper resources.

Final Thoughts: Where’s the Smart Money?

If you’re hunting for value in the sports betting market, the under 3.5 goals tip looks solid, especially given both teams’ recent attacking woes. The 1X double chance is a bit riskier, but with AVS desperate to break their home duck and Arouca’s travel sickness, it’s not out of the question. Just don’t expect fireworks—unless you count a scrappy goal and a couple of yellow cards as pyrotechnics.

For those who love a good AFS vs Arouca prediction, this is a match that’s more about grit than glamour. Our advice? Keep your bets sensible, your expectations realistic, and maybe have your favorite comfort snack on hand—just in case the football doesn’t provide enough excitement.

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Warning

Arouca didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for AFS vs Arouca

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
3/10

1x2 Tip

1X -213

AFS to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No -111

At least one team is not expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -154

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

1.1
xG
0.94
43%
Ball Possession
57%
11
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots Off Goal
5
4
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

0.96
Expected Goals
0.72
2.8
Total Goals
3.4
0.7
Goals Scored
0.9
2.1
Goals Against
2.5
41%
Possession
50%
10.1
Total Shots
9.4
3.3
Shots on Goal
2.7
3.9
Shots off Goal
4.4
13.6
Fouls
12.9
3
Corners
4
0.9
Offsides
1.1
2.9
Yellow Cards
2.6
308
Total Passes
412

Overview Last 10 Matches

1
Wins
1
8
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
7
4
Over 3.5 Goals
6
4
Both Teams Scored
5
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

AFS
0 - 1 - 3
Arouca
Arouca Arouca 09-Aug-25
3:1
AFS AFS
AFS AFS 08-Mar-25
0:1
Arouca Arouca
Arouca Arouca 05-Oct-24
1:1
AFS AFS
AFS AFS 26-Sep-23
1:2
Arouca Arouca

Profile time Recent Matches of AFS

23 JanD Casa Pia Casa Pia.
3:3
AFS. AFS
17 JanL AFS AFS.
0:1
Arouca. Arouca
03 JanL AFS AFS.
0:2
Moreirense. Moreirense
29 DecL FC Porto FC Porto.
2:0
AFS. AFS
21 DecD AFS AFS.
2:2
Nacional. Nacional
17 DecW Guimaraes Guimaraes.
0:1
AFS. AFS
13 DecL Sporting CP Sporting C.
6:0
AFS. AFS
06 DecL AFS AFS.
1:2
Rio Ave. Rio Ave
28 NovL Guimaraes Guimaraes.
4:0
AFS. AFS
22 NovD AFS AFS.
0:0
Academico. Academico

Profile time Recent Matches of Arouca

31 JanRio Ave Rio Ave.
-
Arouca.Arouca
24 JanLArouca Arouca.
1:2
Sporting C.Sporting CP
17 JanWAFS AFS.
0:1
Arouca.Arouca
03 JanLTondela Tondela.
3:1
Arouca.Arouca
28 DecDArouca Arouca.
2:2
Gil Vicent.Gil Vicente
21 DecDSanta Clara Santa Clar.
0:0
Arouca.Arouca
14 DecWArouca Arouca.
1:0
Alverca.Alverca
07 DecLEstrela Estrela.
3:1
Arouca.Arouca
01 DecLArouca Arouca.
0:4
Braga.Braga
23 NovLAD Fafe AD Fafe.
2:1
Arouca.Arouca

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto19
40-4
55
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP19
52-10
48
3 Benfica Benfica19
42-11
45
4 SC Braga SC Braga19
37-18
33
5 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente19
24-16
31
6 Moreirense Moreirense19
26-26
30
7 Famalicao Famalicao19
24-14
29
8 Estoril Estoril19
37-31
26
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes19
20-27
25
10 Alverca Alverca19
19-33
23
11 Nacional Nacional19
26-28
20
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave19
22-35
20
13 Estrela Estrela19
23-36
19
14 Santa Clara Santa Clara19
14-21
17
15 Arouca Arouca19
20-44
17
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia19
20-38
15
17 Tondela Tondela19
12-33
12
18 AVS AVS19
14-47
5
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