Ajax welcomes Union St. Gilloise to the Johan Cruijff ArenA for a UEFA Europa League showdown on February 20 at 20:00 UTC. With the Dutch giants favored at 1.85 for a home win, can the Belgian underdogs pull off a surprise? Let’s break down the best betting options for this encounter.

Best Bet: 1X (Ajax to Win or Draw) – Odds: 1.25, Trust Rating: 8.8/10
Ajax’s home advantage and superior squad value (€187.65m vs. €72.45m) make them the safer pick. Union St. Gilloise has proven they can cause upsets—just ask Union Berlin—but securing a win in Amsterdam is a tall order. The 1X market offers a solid balance of safety and value.

Full-Time Result Prediction: Ajax Win – Odds: 1.85, Trust Rating: 7.0/10
Home teams have won 50.4% of Europa League matches in recent years, and Ajax’s possession dominance (57%) should give them control. Union SG’s away record is respectable, but against a technically superior Ajax side, they may struggle to create enough chances.

Goals Market: Under 3.5 Goals – Odds: 1.39, Confidence: 5.6/10
While Ajax is expected to win, a goal-fest isn’t guaranteed. Only 30.3% of Europa League games exceed 3.5 goals, and with Ajax predicted to score twice and Union SG likely to be limited to just two shots on target, a controlled, low-scoring affair seems likely.

Scoreline Prediction: Ajax 2-0
Ajax is tipped to take a 1-0 lead by halftime before sealing the deal in the second half. Union SG’s defensive resilience could keep the scoreline respectable, but their attacking output may not be enough to trouble the Dutch side.

Key Stats & Insights
- Ajax is expected to take 12 shots (5 on target), while Union SG will likely manage 9 shots (2 on target).
- Corners should be limited, with a predicted total of 7.
- Discipline could play a role, with Union SG expected to pick up 3 yellow cards compared to Ajax’s 1.

Final Verdict
Ajax’s home form, squad depth, and possession-based style make them the favorites. The best value bet remains 1X at 1.25, while those looking for more risk can back Ajax to win outright at 1.85. Expect a professional performance from the Dutch side, with a controlled 2-0 victory on the cards.