Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem Prediction

Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem prediction: goals, odds, and a clear favorite

Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem prediction starts with a simple idea: this is a Matchday 21 meeting where one team is chasing the title pace, and the other is trying to keep its season calm. The game is set for 2026-02-05 at Alinma Stadium in Jeddah, with kickoff at 17:30 GMT (18:30 local time). On paper, it looks one-way traffic, but the details still matter if you want smart betting tips rather than blind confidence.

Match context: why this fixture feels “bigger” for Al Ahli

Al Ahli come into this round sitting 3rd with 43 points, and the mood around Jeddah is “keep pushing.” A 0-0 draw with leaders Al Hilal on February 2 didn’t bring goals, but it did bring belief—especially with Edouard Mendy pulling the kind of saves that keep title dreams alive. Before that, they brushed aside Al-Ettifaq 4-0 and beat Neom 3-0, which tells you the attack can purr when the matchup is right.

Al Hazem, 12th with 20 points, are in a different story arc: mid-table stability, avoid a spiral, steal points when possible. Their recent 1-1 draw with Al Fateh fits the pattern—hard-working, organized, and sometimes short of sharpness in the final third. But there’s also that other side: the kind of match where the floor suddenly collapses, like the 0-4 defeat to Al Shabab.

Tactical picture: press vs block, and who blinks first

Matthias Jaissle has built an Al Ahli side that looks comfortable dictating games. The shape often reads as a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with a high press that forces rushed clearances and quick turnovers. With wide players like Mahrez stretching the pitch and runners arriving around the box, the pressure tends to feel constant. It helps that Al Ahli’s defense has been elite—only 12 conceded all season—which means even when the press fails, the structure usually holds.

Jalel Kadri’s Al Hazem, appointed in April 2025, tends to answer with a compact block—often a 4-5-1 or even 5-4-1 away to top sides. The plan is clear: reduce space between the lines, protect the middle, and wait for counter-attacks. The issue is that “waiting” becomes expensive if you give up an early goal, because then you must open up against one of the league’s best transition teams.

Team news that shapes the game plan

• Al Ahli suspension: right-back Ali Majrashi is expected to miss out after a red card late against Al Hilal.
• Al Ahli injuries: Merih Demiral remains sidelined; Abdullah Otayf is still out long-term (ACL).
• Al Hazem availability: no major new injuries reported, so Kadri should have close to a full deck.

Key players: the scorer, the creator, and the survival kit

Ivan Toney headlines this one. He’s reportedly the league’s top scorer with 18 goals, and the scary part for Al Hazem is the rhythm: 13 goals in his last 8 league appearances, plus two hat-tricks in his last four outings. Behind him, Mahrez supplies the craft and decision-making, while Kessie gives the midfield muscle that turns 50-50 moments into sustained pressure.

For Al Hazem, Omar Al Somah remains the primary threat—if they create chances, he’s usually at the end of them. And Bruno Varela will likely be busy; if Al Hazem are to make this a long afternoon for the home crowd, it probably starts with their goalkeeper having one of those “how did he save that?” nights.

Head to head and a reminder not to get careless

• Historical edge: Al Ahli have won 15 of the last 26 head to head meetings since 2005; Al Hazem have 3 wins.
• Most recent H2H (2023-08-11): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm, with pre-match odds favoring Al Ahli at 1.44 and Al Hazem at 6.1.
• Al Hazem’s “don’t assume” moment: they drew 4-4 away at Al Nassr on 2024-02-29 despite huge odds (16.75). If a game gets chaotic, they can surf the chaos.

Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem prediction: NerdyTips AI angles

Now to the numbers and where they meet the football logic. The 1x2 market is heavily tilted: home win 1.23, draw 6.9, away win 13.0. That pricing matches the league table, the form trend, and the tactical matchup (press and quality vs deep block and survival). The question for bettors is not “who wins?” but “by how much, and do goals follow?”

Main markets and what our model likes

• Best tip: H1 (Al Ahli to win by at least 2 goals) at 1.65, trust score 10.0/10.
• 1x2 prediction: 1 (Home win) at 1.23, trust score 10.0/10.
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals at 1.4, trust score 5.5/10.

How the stats connect to the betting tips

The cleanest story is the handicap: Al Ahli’s defensive record (12 conceded) reduces the “randomness” factor, while their recent big wins (4-0, 3-0) suggest they can turn control into separation on the scoreboard. Add Toney’s current scoring run, and it’s easy to see why our top betting tip is H1 rather than simply backing the short 1.23 home win.

Over 2.5 is a softer call. The trust is notably lower because Al Hazem’s defensive approach can slow games down, and Al Ahli just played a 0-0 with Al Hilal. Still, if Al Ahli score early, Kadri’s compact plan has to loosen, and that’s when the match can move from “disciplined” to “open” very quickly.

Predicted scoreline

• Full-time: 3:0
• Half-time: 1:0

Quick betting snapshot (readable and practical)

1. Safer route: Home win (1) at 1.23 fits the match context, but value is limited.
2. Better value pick: H1 at 1.65 aligns with Al Ahli’s control + finishing edge.
3. Goals angle: Over 2.5 at 1.4 is playable, but it depends on Al Ahli scoring before Al Hazem can settle.

Final thought: this Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem prediction leans heavily toward the hosts because the matchup is built for them—press, depth, form, and a striker in a hurry. Al Hazem can be stubborn, and history has shown they can surprise in wild games, but the most likely script remains Al Ahli wearing them down and pulling away after the first goal.