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Match Prediction

Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad Prediction

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Saudi-Arabia flag Saudi-Arabia

Al Ahli SC

€170.78m

6 Mar15:00
3 : 1

Al Ittihad

€164.55m

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Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad Prediction Pro League

Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction for a tense Sea Derby

The Jeddah Derby is back on Friday, 2026-03-06 at 19:00 GMT, and this Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction leans slightly toward the hosts. With the league table, recent form, and squad news all pointing in one direction, it feels like a night where Al Ahli can control the rhythm—while still needing to watch the punch Al Ittihad carry on the break.

Match context, form, and what to expect tactically

Al Ahli arrive in outstanding league shape under Matthias Jaissle, sitting right at the top end of the table after 24 matches. They have put together a five-game winning run in the Pro League and, crucially, did it without conceding. That sort of defensive stretch usually changes how derbies are played: calmer in possession, more patient in buildup, and less panic when the game gets messy.

Al Ittihad, the defending champions, are chasing from 5th. Their league form has been mixed, yet they have shown they can raise their level in big moments—most notably the 1:1 away draw at Al Hilal on 2026-02-21 despite being priced around 6.25 to win. That result matters for bettors because it confirms Ittihad can survive long spells without the ball and still land a decisive counter.

Key team news and players who shape the betting angle

  • Al Ahli have de-registered Roberto Firmino for the rest of the league season, with Wenderson Galeno taking that foreign-player slot.
  • Ivan Toney is in Golden Boot form (23 league goals) and is the type of finisher who turns “good chances” into goals.
  • Edouard Mendy’s recent shot-stopping has kept tight games on script for Al Ahli.
  • Al Ittihad get a boost with their foreign stars back in training; the attack should feature Karim Benzema, Moussa Diaby, and Youssef En-Nesyri.
  • Awad Al-Nashri is a doubt as he continues rehab from a muscle problem.

Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction: AI picks and betting odds

Market prices have Al Ahli as the favorites: home win 1.95, draw 3.8, away win 4.0. That aligns with the performance trend and a slightly higher squad market value (€170.78m vs €1.28.8555m), but derbies rarely follow spreadsheets perfectly. Our Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad prediction therefore balances safety with value.

Best betting angles (with the numbers behind them)

  1. Best tip: 1X (Al Ahli win or draw) at 1.28 (confidence 4.7/10). It fits the expectation of Al Ahli controlling phases and avoiding defeat at home.
  2. 1X2 lean: Home win at 1.95 (trust 3.7/10). The AI points to a narrow edge rather than a runaway.
  3. Over 2.5 total goals at 1.70 (confidence 3.6/10). This is more “plausible” than “automatic,” but it matches the game script.

Stats, head to head, and a realistic score call

The latest head to head ended 2-2 on 2025-04.0, a reminder that Ittihad can trade punches in Jeddah. Still, the current model expects Al Ahli to have 53% possession, outshoot Ittihad 11 to 7 (on target 4 to 2), and edge corners 5 to 3. With discipline projected at 1 yellow for Al Ahli and 2 for Al Ittihad, the visitors may spend more time defending transitions.

Putting it together: expected final score 2-1, with a 1-0 half-time lean. If you want one smart bet, 1X is the steady option; if you want a bit more upside, pair the home win idea with the match leaning over 2.5 total goals.

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AI Predictions
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Derby match

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Al Ahli SC vs Al Ittihad

1X -357

Al Ahli SC to win or draw with odds of -357
4/10

1x2 Tip

1 -105

Al Ahli SC is expected to win with odds of -105
3/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -152

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -175

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -200

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

2.1
xG
0.91
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
4
Shots Off Goal
2
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.27
Expected Goals
1.37
3
Total Goals
3
2.4
Goals Scored
2.1
0.6
Goals Against
0.9
50%
Possession
56%
12.1
Total Shots
12.8
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.9
5.3
Shots off Goal
5
15.1
Fouls
10.8
6.4
Corners
6.1
3.6
Offsides
1.6
1.7
Yellow Cards
1.7
337
Total Passes
476

Overview Last 10 Matches

8
Wins
6
6
Over 1.5 Goals
8
5
Over 2.5 Goals
5
4
Over 3.5 Goals
3
3
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Al Ahli SC
8 - 5 - 4
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 08-Nov-25
0:1
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 05-Apr-25
2:2
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 31-Oct-24
1:0
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 01-Apr-24
1:0
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 06-Oct-23
0:1
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 26-Feb-22
3:4
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 01-Oct-21
2:0
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 11-Feb-21
1:1
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 31-Oct-20
2:0
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC
Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 09-Aug-20
1:2
Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC

Profile time Recent Matches of Al Ahli SC

13 Mar Al Qadisiya Al Qadisiya - Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC -
06 MarW Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 3 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 1
26 FebW Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 0 Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 1
23 FebW Damac Damac 0 Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 1
19 FebW Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 4 Al Najma Al Najma 1
16 FebW Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 4 Shabab A Shabab A 3
13 FebW Al Shabab Al Shabab 2 Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 5
09 FebD Al Wahda Al Wahda 0 Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 0
05 FebW Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 2 Al Hazem Al Hazem 0
02 FebD Al Hilal Al Hilal 0 Al Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 0

Profile time Recent Matches of Al Ittihad

06 MarLAl Ahli SC Al Ahli SC 3 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 1
27 FebWAl Ittihad Al Ittihad 1 Al Khaleej Al Khaleej 0
24 FebDAl Hazem Al Hazem 1 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 1
21 FebDAl Hilal Al Hilal 1 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 1
17 FebWAl-Sadd (Qat) Al-Sadd (Qat) 1 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 4
13 FebWAl Ittihad Al Ittihad 2 Al Fayha Al Fayha 1
10 FebWAl Ittihad Al Ittihad 7 Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa 0
06 FebLAl Nassr Al Nassr 2 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 0
01 FebWAl Ittihad Al Ittihad 1 Al Najma Al Najma 0
29 JanDAl Fateh Al Fateh 2 Al Ittihad Al Ittihad 2

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Al-Nassr Al-Nassr25
66-19
64
2 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah25
49-16
62
3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi25
66-23
61
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah25
59-23
57
5 Al Taawon Al Taawon25
45-31
44
6 Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC25
40-31
42
7 Al-Ettifaq Al-Ettifaq25
36-43
39
8 NEOM NEOM25
29-34
32
9 Al Khaleej Saihat Al Khaleej25
44-39
30
10 Al-Fayha Al-Fayha25
33-41
30
11 Al-Fateh Al-Fateh25
34-46
28
12 Al-Hazm Al-Hazm25
27-46
28
13 Al Shabab Al Shabab25
31-39
26
14 Al Kholood Al Kholood25
33-46
25
15 Damac Damac25
21-41
19
16 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh25
22-48
16
17 Al Okhdood Al Okhdood25
22-55
13
18 Al Najma Al Najma25
22-58
8
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