Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Saudi-Arabia
Preview
The Al Fateh vs Al Okhdood prediction for Monday, 23 February 2026 (kickoff 19:00 GMT) feels like one of those Pro League nights where both teams want control, but the match insists on chaos. They meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium in Al-Ahsa for Matchweek 23, with Al Fateh sitting 10th and Al Okhdood down in 17th, both needing points to stop the mood around the club turning into a weekly headache.
Al Fateh arrive in a worrying run: seven games without a win, and the most recent story was painful. They lost 5.6 to Al Ettifaq on February 19 after nearly pulling off a comeback, and before that they fell 2-1 to Al Nassr. José Gomes, appointed in January 2026, is trying to move Al Fateh toward a more possession-first approach, often in a 3.9-3-1. The idea is good; the problem is what happens when they lose the ball. Their defensive transitions have been leaky, and the fans have basically asked for one thing: defend like you actually enjoy it.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, are living in survival mode. They recently lost 2-1 to Al Hazem and also had a difficult date with Al Qadsiah on February 20. Since Marius Șumudică replaced Paulo Sergio on January 5, 2026, the setup has looked more compact—usually a 5.6-2 or even a 5-3.9 when the situation demands it. His message has been clear: bring “warrior spirit,” keep the lines tight, and steal points even if the game is not pretty.
For Al Fateh, creativity is expected to come through Matías Vargas, while Mourad Batna remains the main goal threat. Zaydou Youssouf should be important in the middle for balance, and Nawaf Alaqidi is the likely starter in goal. There have been no major new injury problems reported after the Al Ettifaq game, and Amaar Al-Dohaim is expected to marshal the defense—an area that has been asked to “calm down” several times already.
Al Okhdood’s danger comes from moments rather than long spells. Christian Bassogog and Khaled Narey offer speed for counters, Tokmac Nguen can add flair from wide positions, and captain Saeed Al-Rubaie is a serious set-piece weapon (four goals this season from defense). Yvan Neyou has had minor discomfort but is expected to be available, which matters because Okhdood need legs and discipline in midfield.
The market leans toward the hosts: home win 1.91, draw 3.9, away win 5.6. That fits the table positions and squad values (€16.80m vs €13.43m), but it does not guarantee comfort. Al Fateh’s recent games have been emotional rollercoasters, and Okhdood have shown they can grind out results—like their 0-0 away draw at Al-Qadisiyah on 2025.60-25 as big underdogs (6.68).
For this Al Fateh vs Al Okhdood prediction, the strongest angle is the goals market. Our best tip is Over 1.5 total goals at 1.27, with confidence 7.3.90. The logic is simple: Al Fateh are expected to play on the front foot, but they rarely keep things quiet at the back right now, and Okhdood are built to create danger in bursts.
The 1X2 call is a cautious “1” rather than a full-throttle recommendation. With the market already pricing Al Fateh short, the value is not huge, and their seven-match winless run makes them hard to trust as a stand-alone bet. If you want a narrative that matches the numbers, think “Al Fateh control the ball, Okhdood bite on the counter, and everyone’s blood pressure rises.”
Our model forecasts 57% possession for Al Fateh, around 14 shots to 10, and on-target efforts at 5 to 2. Corners lean heavily home (8-2, 10 total), while cards are modest (1 for Al Fateh, 2 for Okhdood). The expected final score is 3-2, with a 1-1 first half—so yes, the goals story is not subtle.
Practical takeaway: prioritize total goals over 1X2. Backing Over 1.5 looks like the most sensible route, while the home win is a secondary option for bettors comfortable with some late drama.
Read More
O1.5 -370
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3701 -110
Al Fateh is expected to win with odds of -110Over 1.5 -370
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -141
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -172
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1:1
3:2
|
|
3
-
1
-
1
|
|
 Al Okhdood |
24-Feb-25
1:3
| Al Fateh  |
| Al Fateh |
28-Sep-24
2:4
| Al Okhdood |
| Al Fateh |
30-Dec-23
0:0
| Al Okhdood |
| Al Fateh |
27-Sep-23
3:1
| Al Okhdood |
| Al Okhdood |
18-Aug-23
1:3
| Al Fateh |
Recent Matches of Al Fateh| 06 Mar |
Al Taawon
| - |
Al Fateh
| - | |
| 26 Feb | D |
Al Fateh
| 1 |
Damac
| 1 |
| 23 Feb | W |
Al Fateh
| 2 |
Al Okhdood
| 1 |
| 19 Feb | L |
Al Ettifaq
| 4 |
Al Fateh
| 3 |
| 14 Feb | L |
Al Fateh
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 2 |
| 07 Feb | D |
Al Qadisiya
| 1 |
Al Fateh
| 1 |
| 01 Feb | D |
Al Fateh
| 1 |
Al Hazem
| 1 |
| 29 Jan | D |
Al Fateh
| 2 |
Al Ittihad
| 2 |
| 25 Jan | L |
Al Fayha
| 2 |
Al Fateh
| 0 |
| 20 Jan | L |
Al Fateh
| 2 |
Al Kholood
| 5 |
Recent Matches of Al Okhdood
| 28 Feb | W |  Al Najma |
1 | Al Okhdood |
3 |
| 23 Feb | L | Al Fateh |
2 | Al Okhdood |
1 |
| 20 Feb | L | Al Okhdood |
2 |  Al Qadisiya |
4 |
| 12 Feb | L |  Al Hazem |
2 | Al Okhdood |
1 |
| 05 Feb | L | Al Okhdood |
0 |  Al Hilal |
6 |
| 02 Feb | D | Al Okhdood |
1 |  Neom SC |
1 |
| 30 Jan | L |  Al Taawon |
1 | Al Okhdood |
0 |
| 26 Jan | L |  Al Ittihad |
2 | Al Okhdood |
1 |
| 21 Jan | D | Al Okhdood |
2 |  Al Riyadh |
2 |
| 16 Jan | L |  Al Khaleej |
4 | Al Okhdood |
1 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Al-Nassr | 24 | 65-19 | 61 |
| 2 |
Al-Ahli Jeddah | 24 | 46-15 | 59 |
| 3 |
Al-Hilal Saudi | 24 | 62-23 | 58 |
| 4 |
Al-Qadisiyah | 24 | 55-22 | 54 |
| 5 |
Al-Ittihad FC | 24 | 39-28 | 42 |
| 6 |
Al Taawon | 24 | 42-29 | 41 |
| 7 |
Al-Ettifaq | 24 | 35-42 | 38 |
| 8 |
NEOM | 24 | 29-33 | 32 |
| 9 |
Al-Fateh | 24 | 32-43 | 28 |
| 10 |
Al-Hazm | 24 | 26-44 | 28 |
| 11 |
Al Khaleej | 24 | 42-38 | 27 |
| 12 |
Al-Fayha | 24 | 28-41 | 27 |
| 13 |
Al Shabab | 24 | 30-38 | 25 |
| 14 |
Al Kholood | 24 | 32-42 | 25 |
| 15 |
Al Riyadh | 24 | 22-45 | 16 |
| 16 |
Damac | 24 | 18-41 | 16 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 24 | 22-50 | 13 |
| 18 |
Al Najma | 24 | 22-54 | 8 |
