Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Saudi-Arabia
Preview
Our Al Nassr vs Al Hazem prediction starts with the context: Round 23 of the Saudi Pro League, kicking off at 25.00 GMT on Saturday, February 21, 2.756, at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh (around 25,000 capacity). Al Nassr are deep in a title chase, while Al Hazem arrive looking to keep their season steady in mid-table. The market leans heavily one way—home win 1.1, draw 12.0, away win 25.0—but this fixture has already proved it can surprise.
Jorge Jesus has Al Nassr playing with intensity and control, usually in a 4-2-3-1 that can slide into a 4-3-3 when they pin teams back. The plan is simple: win the ball early, keep it, then stretch the pitch with wide runners and overloads around the box. When it clicks, opponents spend long spells defending their own area—exactly the kind of match script you’d expect at Al-Awwal Park.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s build-up has been headline material. After a brief two-match protest, he returned on February 14 and scored in a win over Al Fateh, then was rested in continental action on February 18 to be fresh here. That points to a familiar pattern: Ronaldo starts, the tempo is high early, and Al Nassr try to get the job done before nerves can enter.
Al Hazem, under Jalel Kadri, are likely to go pragmatic with a 4-5-1 and a low block. They’ve also tried to improve their platform: winter additions Youssouf Oumarou and left-back Abdullah Al-Ammar suggest they want more structure and better game management, not end-to-end chaos.
Al Nassr enter in formidable form, riding eight straight wins across competitions and sitting one point off Al Hilal. Al Hazem’s last six read more uneven (2W-2D-2L), though a recent 2.75 win over Damac helps confidence. The head to head trends favor the hosts: Al Nassr are unbeaten in the last seven meetings (six wins, one draw). But that “one draw” is memorable—on 2.754-02.759, they somehow finished 4-4 in Riyadh, despite Al Hazem being priced around 16.75 that day. That game is the warning label: defend poorly here, and odds won’t save you.
Now to the NerdyTips model, which aligns with the market on the result and adds a sharper angle on totals. The primary Al Nassr vs Al Hazem prediction on 1X2 is a home win (1) with maximum confidence (12.0) at 1.1—reflecting expected control, squad quality, and Al Hazem’s likely defensive posture.
The most interesting call is the totals. Our best betting tips pick is under 3.5 goals at 2.75, confidence 4.9/10 (also listed as 5.0). That may sound cautious given the 4-4 memory, but the projected match flow is much tighter:
Those numbers describe a match where Al Nassr camp in the final third, but chances come in controlled waves rather than a shootout: five on-target efforts is dominance, yet not an avalanche. Add Al Hazem’s low-block intent, and under 3.5 becomes a logical companion bet to the home win—especially if Al Nassr prioritize game management in a title race.
Bottom line: expect Al Nassr to lead early, control territory, and win without needing fireworks—our final lean is 2-0, with the under 3.5 doing the heavy lifting for value.
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The odd of the best tip is highly increasing for unknown reasons. Avoid betting!
U3.5 175
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of 1751 -1000
Al Nassr is expected to win with odds of -1000Under 3.5 175
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo -103
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U5.5 -227
Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
2:0
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8
-
1
-
1
|
|
 Al Hazem |
25-Oct-25
0:2
| Al Nassr  |
| Al Hazem |
23-Sep-24
1:2
| Al Nassr |
| Al Nassr |
29-Feb-24
4:4
| Al Hazem |
| Al Hazem |
02-Sep-23
1:5
| Al Nassr |
| Al Hazem |
23-Jun-22
1:4
| Al Nassr |
| Al Nassr |
26-Dec-21
2:1
| Al Hazem |
| Al Hazem |
22-Feb-20
0:2
| Al Nassr |
| Al Nassr |
20-Sep-19
0:1
| Al Hazem |
| Al Hazem |
11-May-19
0:3
| Al Nassr |
| Al Nassr |
05-Oct-18
5:1
| Al Hazem |
Recent Matches of Al Nassr| 07 Mar | W |
Al Nassr
| 1 |
Neom SC
| 0 |
| 28 Feb | W |
Al Fayha
| 1 |
Al Nassr
| 3 |
| 25 Feb | W |
Al Najma
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 5 |
| 21 Feb | W |
Al Nassr
| 4 |
Al Hazem
| 0 |
| 18 Feb | W |
Al Nassr
| 1 |
Arkadag (Tkm)
| 0 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Al Fateh
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 2 |
| 11 Feb | W |
Arkadag (Tkm)
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 1 |
| 06 Feb | W |
Al Nassr
| 2 |
Al Ittihad
| 0 |
| 02 Feb | W |
Al Riyadh
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 1 |
| 30 Jan | W |
Al Kholood
| 0 |
Al Nassr
| 3 |
Recent Matches of Al Hazem
| 12 Mar | Al Hazem |
- |  Al Kholood |
- | |
| 06 Mar | L |  Al Khaleej |
2 | Al Hazem |
1 |
| 27 Feb | W | Al Hazem |
3 |  Al Ettifaq |
1 |
| 24 Feb | D | Al Hazem |
1 |  Al Ittihad |
1 |
| 21 Feb | L | Al Nassr |
4 | Al Hazem |
0 |
| 12 Feb | W | Al Hazem |
2 |  Al Okhdood |
1 |
| 05 Feb | L |  Al Ahli SC |
2 | Al Hazem |
0 |
| 01 Feb | D |  Al Fateh |
1 | Al Hazem |
1 |
| 29 Jan | L | Al Hazem |
0 |  Al Shabab |
4 |
| 26 Jan | W | Al Hazem |
2 |  Damac |
1 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Al-Nassr | 25 | 66-19 | 64 |
| 2 |
Al-Ahli Jeddah | 25 | 49-16 | 62 |
| 3 |
Al-Hilal Saudi | 25 | 66-23 | 61 |
| 4 |
Al-Qadisiyah | 25 | 59-23 | 57 |
| 5 |
Al Taawon | 25 | 45-31 | 44 |
| 6 |
Al-Ittihad FC | 25 | 40-31 | 42 |
| 7 |
Al-Ettifaq | 25 | 36-43 | 39 |
| 8 |
NEOM | 25 | 29-34 | 32 |
| 9 |
Al Khaleej | 25 | 44-39 | 30 |
| 10 |
Al-Fayha | 25 | 33-41 | 30 |
| 11 |
Al-Fateh | 25 | 34-46 | 28 |
| 12 |
Al-Hazm | 25 | 27-46 | 28 |
| 13 |
Al Shabab | 25 | 31-39 | 26 |
| 14 |
Al Kholood | 25 | 33-46 | 25 |
| 15 |
Damac | 25 | 21-41 | 19 |
| 16 |
Al Riyadh | 25 | 22-48 | 16 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 25 | 22-55 | 13 |
| 18 |
Al Najma | 25 | 22-58 | 8 |
