Saudi-Arabia
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Al Qadisiya vs Al Ettifaq prediction for Monday’s Eastern Derby
The Al Qadisiya vs Al Ettifaq prediction starts with one simple truth: this is not just another league game. It is the Eastern Province derby, with Khobar’s Al Qadisiya hosting Dammam’s Al Ettifaq on 2025.752-23 at 18.50 GMT, and local pride usually makes teams run that extra meter (even if their legs disagree).
Derby context, coaches, and what each team wants
Al Qadisiya come into this one in a strong league position and, under Brendan Rodgers, they have leaned into a possession-first style. Since taking over in late 2025, Rodgers has pushed “The Knights” to play higher, keep the ball, and attack with patience rather than panic. With experienced names like Nacho Fernández wearing the armband and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang offering a direct threat up front, the plan is often to control territory and force opponents to defend for long periods.
Al Ettifaq, led by Saad Al Shehri, are usually more flexible and a bit more cautious by nature. A 4-2-3-1 shape with a compact block makes sense for them, especially away from home, and then they try to spring forward quickly. Georginio Wijnaldum is still the midfield metronome, while Jack Hendry provides structure at the back and Karl Toko Ekambi brings pace for those transition moments. If you like games where one side builds and the other side counters, this derby often fits the script.
Form, absences, and why the match could open up
Al Qadisiya’s home record has been a real weapon, and they’ve also shown they can win big games on the road, like that surprising 1:2 victory at Al Nassr on 2025.751-08 when the betting odds had them at 5.2. Al Ettifaq have their own “don’t underestimate us” story too: the 0:1 win at Al Ittihad on 2025.751-16 at odds of 8.5 was a reminder that they can be dangerous when the game plan is clear.
Squad-wise, Al Qadisiya are expected to be close to full strength. Al Ettifaq may have to improvise, with Moussa Dembélé likely missing due to a knee issue, and Radhi Al Otaibi not fully certain. If Ettifaq do not have their usual striker option, that can change how long they can hold the ball up top, which in turn invites more pressure.
Head to head and derby habits
The last head to head meeting on 2025.754-05 ended 1-1, and it was tight despite Al Qadisiya being favored (1.3548 vs 5.755). These derby games can swing quickly, and they often bring goals—partly because emotions push the tempo, and partly because one mistake becomes two in a hurry.
NerdyTips angles: odds, tips, and the story behind the numbers
Now for the Al Qadisiya vs Al Ettifaq prediction from our side. The market leans heavily to the hosts: Home win 1.3547, Draw 5.75, Away win 8.5. That gap matches the wider picture, including squad strength and value: Al Qadisiya are priced around €119.72m versus Al Ettifaq at €31.67m.
- Best tip: Home win (1) — confidence 5.5.750, suggested odds 1.354
- 1X2 AI pick: 1 — trust level 5.75, odds 1.354
- Total goals: Over 2.5 — trust score 2.7, odds 1.53
The match stats projection explains why “1” is the main lean. Al Qadisiya are expected to have about 63% possession, around 15 shots to Al Ettifaq’s 7, and 5 shots on target compared to 2. Add a corner forecast of 7-2 (9 total), and you get a game where the home side should spend more time near the away box than their own.
Our model’s predicted score is 2:1, with 1:0 at half-time. That fits the idea of Al Qadisiya starting on the front foot, while Al Ettifaq look for their moment on the break. The yellow card expectation (1 for Qadisiya, 3 for Ettifaq) also hints at a common away-team derby pattern: defend deep, stop counters, and occasionally “accidentally” kick the opponent’s shin.
Final reading for bettors
If you want the simplest path, the home win is where both the betting odds and our numbers point. The over 2.5 total goals call is more cautious from the AI, but the 2:1 projection keeps it in play—especially if Ettifaq’s counterattacks land once.
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Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Al Qadisiya vs Al Ettifaq1 -286
Al Qadisiya is expected to win with odds of -2861x2 Tip
1 -286
Al Qadisiya is expected to win with odds of -286Total Goals
Over 2.5 -213
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
Yes -135
Both teams are expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
1X&O1.5 -435
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goalsCorrect Score
2:1
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
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|
5
-
3
-
4
|
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Latest Matches
 Al Ettifaq |
05-Apr-26
3:2
| Al Qadisiya  |
| Al Ettifaq |
02-Nov-24
0:2
| Al Qadisiya |
| Al Ettifaq |
10-Apr-21
1:3
| Al Qadisiya |
| Al Ettifaq |
28-Mar-19
3:2
| Al Qadisiya |
| Al Ettifaq |
14-Sep-17
1:2
| Al Qadisiya |
| Al Ettifaq |
09-Dec-16
2:2
| Al Qadisiya |
| Al Qadisiya |
23-Feb-26
4:0
| Al Ettifaq |
| Al Qadisiya |
05-Apr-25
1:1
| Al Ettifaq |
| Al Qadisiya |
27-Dec-20
1:2
| Al Ettifaq |
| Al Qadisiya |
06-Dec-18
2:0
| Al Ettifaq |
Recent Matches of Al Qadisiya
| 14 Apr | D |
Al-Qadisiyah
| 2 |
Al Shabab
| 2 |
| 09 Apr | D |
Damac
| 1 |
Al-Qadisiyah
| 1 |
| 05 Apr | L |
Al-Ettifaq
| 3 |
Al-Qadisiyah
| 2 |
| 13 Mar | W |
Al Qadisiya
| 3 |
Al Ahli SC
| 2 |
| 07 Mar | W |
Al Kholood
| 1 |
Al Qadisiya
| 4 |
| 28 Feb | D |
Al Qadisiya
| 1 |
Al Taawon
| 1 |
| 23 Feb | W |
Al Qadisiya
| 4 |
Al Ettifaq
| 0 |
| 20 Feb | W |
Al Okhdood
| 2 |
Al Qadisiya
| 4 |
| 12 Feb | W |
Al Qadisiya
| 1 |
Neom SC
| 0 |
| 07 Feb | D |
Al Qadisiya
| 1 |
Al Fateh
| 1 |
Recent Matches Of Al Ettifaq
| 15 Apr | L |  Al-Nassr |
1 | Al-Ettifaq |
0 |
| 09 Apr | L | Al-Ettifaq |
2 |  Al Riyadh |
3 |
| 05 Apr | W | Al-Ettifaq |
3 | Al-Qadisiyah |
2 |
| 13 Mar | L |  Al Fayha |
1 | Al Ettifaq |
0 |
| 07 Mar | D | Al Ettifaq |
1 |  Al Shabab |
1 |
| 27 Feb | L |  Al Hazem |
3 | Al Ettifaq |
1 |
| 23 Feb | L | Al Qadisiya |
4 | Al Ettifaq |
0 |
| 19 Feb | W | Al Ettifaq |
4 |  Al Fateh |
3 |
| 13 Feb | L |  Al Hilal |
2 | Al Ettifaq |
0 |
| 06 Feb | W | Al Ettifaq |
2 |  Damac |
0 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Al-Nassr | 28 | 78-21 | 73 |
| 2 |
 Al-Hilal Saudi | 28 | 75-25 | 68 |
| 3 |
Al-Ahli Jeddah | 28 | 55-20 | 66 |
| 4 |
Al-Qadisiyah | 29 | 67-31 | 62 |
| 5 |
Al Taawon | 28 | 50-37 | 46 |
| 6 |
 Al-Ittihad FC | 28 | 45-38 | 45 |
| 7 |
Al-Ettifaq | 28 | 41-49 | 42 |
| 8 |
NEOM | 29 | 37-41 | 39 |
| 9 |
 Al-Fayha | 29 | 35-45 | 34 |
| 10 |
 Al-Hazm | 28 | 31-48 | 34 |
| 11 |
 Al Khaleej | 27 | 46-46 | 31 |
| 12 |
Al Shabab | 28 | 36-42 | 31 |
| 13 |
Al Kholood | 29 | 38-57 | 29 |
| 14 |
Al-Fateh | 27 | 34-48 | 28 |
| 15 |
Damac | 28 | 25-46 | 23 |
| 16 |
 Al Riyadh | 28 | 29-52 | 23 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 28 | 23-59 | 16 |
| 18 |
 Al Najma | 28 | 27-67 | 11 |
