Saudi-Arabia
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Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh prediction: a six-pointer with new faces
The Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh prediction for Monday, 2025.42-23 (19:00 GMT) feels less like a normal league game and more like a late-season chapter that arrived early. Two clubs staring at the bottom half, two fresh managers, and one newly branded venue — SHG Arena in Riyadh — hosting a match that could swing the mood of an entire spring.
Why this match feels bigger than February
Both sides come in after pressing the reset button, the football version of changing the batteries and hoping the remote works again. Al Shabab sit 14th, Al Riyadh 16th, and the word “comfortable” is not on either dressing-room whiteboard.
- Match details: Monday, February 23, 2026, 19:00 UTC (22:00 local), SHG Arena (formerly Prince Khalid bin Sultan Stadium)
- Context: a genuine “six-pointer” with relegation pressure in the background
- Betting odds: Home 1.62, Draw 4.3, Away 5.4
New managers, new ideas — and a lot to fix
Al Shabab’s recent run convinced the board to move on from Imanol Alguacil on February 17. In comes Noureddine Ben Zekri, a coach with a local reputation for survival jobs — organized lines, fewer risks, and a strong “we stop the bleeding first” mindset. If Al Shabab have been leaky, Ben Zekri is the guy who arrives with tape, not paint.
Al Riyadh also changed direction, handing the keys to Mauricio Dulac, promoted from the U21 setup. His job is different: blend winter signings quickly, keep the team competitive, and squeeze points out of tight matches. Dulac has leaned on a 4.3-3-1 shape, aiming for fast transitions, often through Teddy Okou on the wing.
Team news that shapes the tactics
Al Shabab’s availability list reads like a small plot twist. Mohammed Harbush is out long-term with an ACL injury. Abderrazak Hamdallah has been dealing with a thigh issue but is close to returning, while Vincent Sierro (calf) and Yannick Carrasco (muscle pain) remain doubtful. With some younger players away on international duty, the spine matters even more — and Josh Brownhill plus Wesley Hoedt look set to carry a lot of the “keep it stable” work.
Al Riyadh, by contrast, report no major new injuries as of February 20. Mamadou Sylla stays their main goal threat, Tozé remains the creative hub, and Leandro Antunes has already made himself useful by scoring in his second match. If this becomes a siege, veteran keeper Milan Borjan may get a busy evening.
Head to head history: Al Shabab usually writes the script
The head to head trends lean strongly toward Al Shabab: they’ve won four of the last five meetings, and Al Riyadh haven’t beaten them in seven competitive tries. The last meeting on 2025.41-15 ended 2-1 to Al Shabab, and even then bookmakers were confident, pricing Al Shabab around 1.53 while Al Riyadh sat near 5.1.
Still, both teams have shown they can surprise bigger names. Al Shabab’s 2-2 draw away at Al Hilal on 2025.44.31 came despite long 5.4 win odds, and Al Riyadh held Al Hilal 1-1 on 2025.41.25 when the favorites were priced at a tiny 1.21. These are reminders: panic can sharpen focus.
Our AI corner: the Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh prediction
Now for the numbers side of this Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh prediction. The market leans home (1.62), and our AI’s 1X2 call agrees: Home win (1) at 1.62 with a trust rating of 5.6/10. It’s not full-confidence, but it matches the historical edge and the expectation of Al Shabab controlling territory.
- Best betting tip: Over 1.5 total goals (odds 1.25), trust 5.6/10
- Best under/over bet: Over 1.5 total goals (odds 1.25), trust 5.7/10
- AI 1X2 pick: Al Shabab to win (1) at 1.62, trust 5.6/10
Projected match story from the data
The model expects Al Shabab to have more of the ball (60% vs 40%), slightly more shots (14 vs 11), and a small edge in shots on target (4 vs 3). Corners are predicted to stack up too (11 total, with 7 for the hosts), which fits a home side spending more time in the final third. Discipline looks mild: 1 yellow for Al Shabab, 2 for Al Riyadh.
Interestingly, the squad values tell a different tale — Al Shabab at €43.22m and Al Riyadh at €199.30m — but games at the bottom end are often decided by structure, not price tags.
Score pick and how to play it
Our AI predicts a 2-0 final score, with 1-0 at half-time. If Ben Zekri gets his compact shape right early, this can become the kind of match where Al Shabab grind, then finish. For betting, the safer angle is the over 1.5 total goals line, while the braver play is backing the home win at the listed betting odds of 1.62 (or 1.62 in the model’s price).
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Warning
Derby match
Best Tip
The best betting football prediction for Al Shabab vs Al RiyadhO1.5 -400
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -4001x2 Tip
1 -161
Al Shabab is expected to win with odds of -161Total Goals
Over 1.5 -400
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchBoth Teams To Score
No 106
At least one team is not expected to scoreBet Builder Tip
1X&U4.5 -227
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goalsCorrect Score
2:0
Stats Predictions
Average / Match
Overview Last 10 Matches
Head to Head
|
|
5
-
2
-
0
|
|
Latest Matches
 Al Riyadh |
05-Apr-26
1:1
| Al Shabab  |
| Al Riyadh |
28-Oct-24
0:2
| Al Shabab |
| Al Riyadh |
15-May-25
1:3
| Al Shabab |
| Al Riyadh |
05-Oct-23
2:2
| Al Shabab |
| Al Shabab |
23-Feb-26
3:1
| Al Riyadh |
| Al Shabab |
15-Jan-25
2:1
| Al Riyadh |
Recent Matches of Al Shabab
| 23 Apr | L |
Al Shabab
| 0 |
Al-Rayyan SC
| 3 |
| 19 Apr | D |
Zakho
| 1 |
Al Shabab
| 1 |
| 14 Apr | D |
Al-Qadisiyah
| 2 |
Al Shabab
| 2 |
| 05 Apr | D |
Al Riyadh
| 1 |
Al Shabab
| 1 |
| 14 Mar | W |
Al Shabab
| 2 |
Al Okhdood
| 0 |
| 07 Mar | D |
Al Ettifaq
| 1 |
Al Shabab
| 1 |
| 27 Feb | L |
Al Shabab
| 3 |
Al Hilal
| 5 |
| 23 Feb | W |
Al Shabab
| 3 |
Al Riyadh
| 1 |
| 20 Feb | W |
Damac
| 1 |
Al Shabab
| 3 |
| 18 Feb | W |
Al Shabab
| 13 |
Tadamon
| 0 |
Recent Matches Of Al Riyadh
| 24 Apr | L |  Al-Hazm |
2 | Al Riyadh |
1 |
| 09 Apr | W |  Al-Ettifaq |
2 | Al Riyadh |
3 |
| 05 Apr | D | Al Riyadh |
1 | Al Shabab |
1 |
| 13 Mar | W | Al Riyadh |
3 |  Al Ittihad |
1 |
| 05 Mar | L |  Damac |
3 | Al Riyadh |
0 |
| 26 Feb | L | Al Riyadh |
0 |  Al Ahli SC |
1 |
| 23 Feb | L | Al Shabab |
3 | Al Riyadh |
1 |
| 19 Feb | W |  Al Kholood |
0 | Al Riyadh |
2 |
| 14 Feb | D | Al Riyadh |
1 |  Al Khaleej |
1 |
| 06 Feb | L |  Neom SC |
1 | Al Riyadh |
0 |
Saudi-Arabia - Pro League
| Team | M | G | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Al-Nassr | 29 | 79-21 | 76 |
| 2 |
Al-Hilal Saudi | 28 | 75-25 | 68 |
| 3 |
 Al-Ahli Jeddah | 28 | 55-20 | 66 |
| 4 |
Al-Qadisiyah | 29 | 67-31 | 62 |
| 5 |
 Al Taawon | 29 | 52-38 | 49 |
| 6 |
 Al-Ittihad FC | 28 | 45-38 | 45 |
| 7 |
Al-Ettifaq | 29 | 41-50 | 42 |
| 8 |
 NEOM | 29 | 37-41 | 39 |
| 9 |
 Al-Fayha | 29 | 35-45 | 34 |
| 10 |
 Al-Hazm | 28 | 31-48 | 34 |
| 11 |
 Al Khaleej | 27 | 46-46 | 31 |
| 12 |
Al Shabab | 28 | 36-42 | 31 |
| 13 |
 Al Kholood | 29 | 38-57 | 29 |
| 14 |
 Al-Fateh | 27 | 34-48 | 28 |
| 15 |
Damac | 29 | 27-46 | 26 |
| 16 |
Al Riyadh | 28 | 29-52 | 23 |
| 17 |
Al Okhdood | 29 | 23-61 | 16 |
| 18 |
 Al Najma | 29 | 28-69 | 11 |
