Almeria vs Ceuta Prediction

Almeria vs Ceuta prediction: goals expected in Almería

The Almeria vs Ceuta prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-01 (kickoff 13:00 GMT) starts with a simple idea: two sides close in the table, both leaking goals, and both believing they can outscore the problem. It’s set for the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, where Almería usually try to control games with the ball while Ceuta try to make the match messy in the best possible way.

Match context, tactics, and team news

Almería come into this one in 6th with 36 points, while Ceuta sit 10th on 35. That one-point gap explains the mood: it feels like a “six-pointer” even though it’s February and nobody wants to say “six-pointer” out loud. Almería’s recent run (LLWDL) has been uneven, and the last outing stung: a 1-0 defeat to Eibar decided late, the kind of goal that makes coaches stare at the grass like it’s personally betrayed them.

How Almería are likely to play

Rubi tends to lean on a 4-2-3-1, with a possession-first plan at home. The forecast backs that up: 63% possession for Almería, plus 15 total shots (5 on target). The message from the staff has been about keeping calm in the box and finishing better—because control without end product is just cardio with a soundtrack.

• Sergio Arribas remains the key threat, leading Almería’s scoring with 11 goals.
• Defensive availability matters: Chumi and Dion Lopy are expected out, while Chirino returns from suspension and Federico Bonini is back in full training after a long layoff.
• Almería have won 6 of 11 at home, which supports the idea they can impose their style here.

How Ceuta can hurt them

Ceuta usually line up 4-3-3 and prefer quick transitions. Their season has been a surprise in the best sense: newly back in professional football after decades away, lower budget, but plenty of belief. Their travel routine is also unique—often involving ground travel near Tetouan before flying to the mainland—so an away day is rarely “just an away day” for them.

• Ceuta’s away form is the big warning sign: 4 losses in their last 6 away matches.
• Injuries hit creativity: Manuel Sánchez and Jamelli are out, and Rubén Díez, Salvi Sánchez, and Youness may face late fitness tests.
• José Matos is one yellow card away from suspension, a detail that can soften tackling in key moments.

Clean sheets? Not today

One of the strongest shared trends is defensive struggle: Almería have conceded in 8 straight matches, Ceuta in 7. If you’re looking for a calm 0-0, you may want a different channel. Even their recent “against-the-odds” history points to goals: Almería’s 2-2 away draw at Mallorca in May 2024 (priced around 8.6 for a win) and Ceuta’s wild 3-3 away draw at Castellón in September 2025 (win odds around 6.0) both show these teams can turn games into open contests.

Betting odds, AI picks, and smart betting tips

The 1X2 market makes Almería the clear favorite: Home win 1.7, Draw 4.0, Away win 5.3. That pricing matches the squad value gap too (€45.75m vs €12.25m), but value in betting is not about who is “bigger”—it’s about what the match is likely to produce.

Main NerdyTips angle: goals over winner

Our Almeria vs Ceuta Prediction leans toward goals rather than a confident match-winner call. The AI’s most valuable bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a trust score of 5.7/10 (and a separate model rating of 5.8 for the same line). That is not glamorous, but it fits the data: both teams concede regularly, both create chances, and the shot forecast (15-8) suggests enough volume for at least two goals.

• Best bet (value): Over 1.5 goals @ 1.26 (trust 5.7/10)
• AI 1X2 lean: Home win @ 1.7 (trust 1.8/10)
• Predicted corners: 6 total (4-2), which hints at steady pressure rather than pure chaos
• Cards estimate: 5 total (Almería 2, Ceuta 3), so not a “friendly” but not a storm either

Score and game script expectations

The predicted final score is 3-2, with a 1-1 first half. That storyline fits a match where Almería dominate the ball, Ceuta strike on transitions, and neither defense looks fully comfortable. For head to head context this season, the earlier meeting was complicated and emotional—suspended at 1-1 and later finished 3-2 to Ceuta—so there’s also a subtle psychological edge: Ceuta know they can hurt Almería, and Almería know they must respond at home.

If you want simple betting tips: the safest logic follows the goals. Over 1.5 is priced low, but it aligns with the most repeatable signals in this matchup. For higher risk, a home win can make sense on paper—just don’t treat it as a certainty when both sides have been donating goals lately.