Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Spain
Preview
The Almeria vs Ceuta prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-01 (kickoff 13:00 GMT) starts with a simple idea: two sides close in the table, both leaking goals, and both believing they can outscore the problem. It’s set for the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, where Almería usually try to control games with the ball while Ceuta try to make the match messy in the best possible way.
Almería come into this one in 6th with 36 points, while Ceuta sit 10th on 35. That one-point gap explains the mood: it feels like a “six-pointer” even though it’s February and nobody wants to say “six-pointer” out loud. Almería’s recent run (LLWDL) has been uneven, and the last outing stung: a 1-0 defeat to Eibar decided late, the kind of goal that makes coaches stare at the grass like it’s personally betrayed them.
Rubi tends to lean on a 4-2-3-1, with a possession-first plan at home. The forecast backs that up: 63% possession for Almería, plus 15 total shots (5 on target). The message from the staff has been about keeping calm in the box and finishing better—because control without end product is just cardio with a soundtrack.
Ceuta usually line up 4-3-3 and prefer quick transitions. Their season has been a surprise in the best sense: newly back in professional football after decades away, lower budget, but plenty of belief. Their travel routine is also unique—often involving ground travel near Tetouan before flying to the mainland—so an away day is rarely “just an away day” for them.
One of the strongest shared trends is defensive struggle: Almería have conceded in 8 straight matches, Ceuta in 7. If you’re looking for a calm 0-0, you may want a different channel. Even their recent “against-the-odds” history points to goals: Almería’s 2-2 away draw at Mallorca in May 2024 (priced around 8.6 for a win) and Ceuta’s wild 3-3 away draw at Castellón in September 2025 (win odds around 6.0) both show these teams can turn games into open contests.
The 1X2 market makes Almería the clear favorite: Home win 1.8, Draw 3.75, Away win 4.8. That pricing matches the squad value gap too (€45.75m vs €12.25m), but value in betting is not about who is “bigger”—it’s about what the match is likely to produce.
Our Almeria vs Ceuta Prediction leans toward goals rather than a confident match-winner call. The AI’s most valuable bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a trust score of 5.7/10 (and a separate model rating of 5.8 for the same line). That is not glamorous, but it fits the data: both teams concede regularly, both create chances, and the shot forecast (15-8) suggests enough volume for at least two goals.
The predicted final score is 3-2, with a 1-1 first half. That storyline fits a match where Almería dominate the ball, Ceuta strike on transitions, and neither defense looks fully comfortable. For head to head context this season, the earlier meeting was complicated and emotional—suspended at 1-1 and later finished 3-2 to Ceuta—so there’s also a subtle psychological edge: Ceuta know they can hurt Almería, and Almería know they must respond at home.
If you want simple betting tips: the safest logic follows the goals. Over 1.5 is priced low, but it aligns with the most repeatable signals in this matchup. For higher risk, a home win can make sense on paper—just don’t treat it as a certainty when both sides have been donating goals lately.
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O1.5 -370
At least 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3701 -125
Almeria is expected to win with odds of -125Over 1.5 -370
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -137
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -192
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
3:2
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0
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0
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1
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 Ceuta |
26-Nov-25
3:2
| Almeria  |
Recent Matches of Almeria| 14 Mar |
Zaragoza
| - |
Almeria
| - | |
| 09 Mar | W |
Almeria
| 3 |
Cultural
| 0 |
| 27 Feb | D |
Albacete
| 1 |
Almeria
| 1 |
| 21 Feb | W |
Almeria
| 2 |
Cordoba
| 1 |
| 13 Feb | W |
Almeria
| 3 |
Andorra
| 2 |
| 08 Feb | W |
Cadiz CF
| 1 |
Almeria
| 2 |
| 01 Feb | W |
Almeria
| 4 |
Ceuta
| 2 |
| 25 Jan | L |
Eibar
| 1 |
Almeria
| 0 |
| 17 Jan | L |
Almeria
| 1 |
Deportivo
| 2 |
| 10 Jan | D |
Mirandes
| 2 |
Almeria
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Ceuta
| 14 Mar | Ceuta |
- |  Deportivo |
- | |
| 08 Mar | L |  Las Palmas |
4 | Ceuta |
0 |
| 01 Mar | W |  Mirandes |
0 | Ceuta |
1 |
| 25 Feb | W | Ceuta |
3 |  Cordoba |
2 |
| 20 Feb | W | Ceuta |
2 |  Granada CF |
1 |
| 15 Feb | L |  Huesca |
2 | Ceuta |
0 |
| 01 Feb | L | Almeria |
4 | Ceuta |
2 |
| 26 Jan | W | Ceuta |
3 |  Cultural |
1 |
| 17 Jan | L | Ceuta |
0 |  Valladolid |
3 |
| 11 Jan | L |  Malaga |
2 | Ceuta |
1 |
Spain - Segunda División| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Racing | 29 | 60-39 | 56 |
| 2 |
Almeria | 29 | 56-40 | 52 |
| 3 |
Castellón | 29 | 48-33 | 49 |
| 4 |
Deportivo La | 29 | 44-33 | 49 |
| 5 |
Las Palmas | 29 | 38-22 | 48 |
| 6 |
Malaga | 29 | 44-34 | 48 |
| 7 |
Burgos | 29 | 32-26 | 46 |
| 8 |
AD Ceuta FC | 29 | 36-43 | 44 |
| 9 |
Sporting Gijon | 29 | 38-37 | 42 |
| 10 |
Eibar | 29 | 32-30 | 41 |
| 11 |
Cordoba | 29 | 41-41 | 41 |
| 12 |
FC Andorra | 29 | 36-40 | 38 |
| 13 |
Real Sociedad | 29 | 42-41 | 37 |
| 14 |
Albacete | 29 | 33-39 | 36 |
| 15 |
Granada CF | 29 | 34-33 | 35 |
| 16 |
Cadiz | 29 | 29-36 | 35 |
| 17 |
Leganes | 29 | 29-29 | 34 |
| 18 |
Valladolid | 29 | 32-41 | 33 |
| 19 |
Huesca | 29 | 26-37 | 31 |
| 20 |
Zaragoza | 29 | 24-41 | 27 |
| 21 |
Cultural | 29 | 27-47 | 27 |
| 22 |
Mirandes | 29 | 28-47 | 24 |
