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Almeria

€50.30m

5 Apr12:30
2 : 1

Leganes

€21.30m

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Almeria vs Leganes Prediction Segunda División

Almeria vs Leganes prediction for April 5: home edge?

Mark your calendars for 2026.04.15 at 17:30 GMT, because this Almeria vs Leganes prediction comes with real stakes at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. It’s Matchday 34 in Segunda División, and it reads like two different seasons meeting in one afternoon: Almería looking up at promotion, Leganés looking down at the danger zone.

Match story so far: form, pressure, and a busy medical room

Almería arrive in 3rd place, level on 58 points with the side in 2nd, and they’ve made home turf feel like a shortcut to points. They’ve won 11 of 16 at home, and their recent run (W-W-L-W-D) includes a statement 5-1 win over Real Sociedad B. That kind of scoreline doesn’t just boost goal difference—it boosts belief.

Leganés, meanwhile, are 17th with 38 points, still close enough to the relegation conversation that every away trip feels like carrying fragile glass. Their form (D-W-L-L-D) has been uneven, and the most recent step was a pragmatic 0-0 draw away at Málaga. On the road this season, they’ve won only 4 of 17, which matters a lot when you’re walking into a stadium where Almería usually start fast.

Players and tactical feel

Almería’s attacking reference point is Sergio Arribas, who has been the headline act with 20 league goals. Expect Almería to try and keep the ball moving through central areas, then speed it up around the box—especially if they can pin Leganés back early.

For Leganés, the hope often comes from staying compact first and then finding moments. Alejandro Millán is their top scorer with 5, although there’s been minor physical discomfort noted recently—so even if he plays, he may not be at full rhythm.

  • Almería team news: Rubi has suspension issues with Léo Baptistão and Silvi Clua. Injuries also complicate things (Gui Guedes, Chumi, Dion Lopy), with Adrián Embarba and André Horta listed as doubtful. Stefan Džodić is expected back after returning early from Serbia U21 duty.
  • Leganés team news: they’re expected to be light in defensive options, which is not ideal away to one of the division’s best home attacks.

Almeria vs Leganes prediction: odds, tips, and AI picks

The betting odds lean clearly toward the hosts: Home win 1.59, Draw 4.1, Away win 6.0. In plain terms, the market sees Almería as the likely winner, and that matches both form and the table.

NerdyTips best bet and 1X2 call

Our best tip from NerdyTips is 1 (Almería to win) with a trust rating of 6.0.20 at odds of 1.59. The 1x2 prediction is also 1, same trust (6.0) and the same price (1.59). That’s not “free money” talk—it’s simply the cleanest line when you connect Almería’s home record with Leganés’ away struggles.

Goals market: why under 3.5 looks sensible

For totals, our AI projects under 3.5 goals as a strong under/over bet: confidence 3.1, odds 1.43. That fits the likely game script: Almería pushing but not needing chaos, Leganés prioritizing survival structure, and both teams dealing with absences.

  1. AI predicted score: 2:0 Almería
  2. Half-time prediction: 1:0
  3. Possession forecast: 52% Almería, 48% Leganés
  4. Shots: 16 vs 10 (on target 5 vs 2)
  5. Corners: 8 total (5 vs 3)
  6. Cards: 1 Almería, 2 Leganés

Head to head notes and value context

The last head to head on 2025-01-15 went against the home narrative: Almería lost 2-3 even though they were priced at 1.81 (Leganés 4.4). So yes, this fixture can bite. But zoom out and the bigger picture still favors Almería, including squad value (€50.30m vs €21.30m) and consistency at home.

There’s also recent proof that both teams can surprise in sports betting terms: Almería drew 2-2 away at Mallorca on 2024.15-19 despite massive 8.6 win odds, and Leganés grabbed a 1-1 away draw at Racing Santander on 2025-12-13 at 6.0. The lesson: respect volatility—then choose the most logical path.

Final word for this Almeria vs Leganes prediction: take Almería to win at 1.59 as the main play, and consider under 3.5 goals at 1.43 as the steady companion bet.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Almeria didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Almeria vs Leganes

1 -169

Almeria is expected to win with odds of -169
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 -169

Almeria is expected to win with odds of -169
5/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -182

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

No 117

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -213

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
5/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:0

Stats Predictions

2.16
xG
1.03
52%
Ball Possession
48%
16
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
3
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.89
Expected Goals
1.3
3.6
Total Goals
2.4
2.3
Goals Scored
1.2
1.3
Goals Against
1.2
49%
Possession
57%
14.7
Total Shots
12.4
5.5
Shots on Goal
3.4
5.8
Shots off Goal
7
13.4
Fouls
10.9
5.2
Corners
4.5
1.7
Offsides
1.4
2.2
Yellow Cards
2.56
395
Total Passes
395

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
2
10
Over 1.5 Goals
6
7
Over 2.5 Goals
4
4
Over 3.5 Goals
2
7
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Almeria
3 - 2 - 2
Leganes
Almeria Almeria 05-Apr-26
2:1
Leganes Leganes
Almeria Almeria 15-Jan-25
2:3
Leganes Leganes
Almeria Almeria 29-Oct-21
1:0
Leganes Leganes
Almeria Almeria 27-Mar-21
1:1
Leganes Leganes
Leganes Leganes 22-Nov-25
0:3
Almeria Almeria
Leganes Leganes 29-May-22
2:2
Almeria Almeria

Profile time Recent Matches of Almeria

24 MayL Sporting G Sporting G 3 Almeria Almeria 1
16 MayL Almeria Almeria 1 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2
09 MayD Burgos Burgos 0 Almeria Almeria 0
04 MayW Almeria Almeria 4 Mirandes Mirandes 2
26 AprW Granada CF Granada CF 2 Almeria Almeria 4
19 AprW Almeria Almeria 3 Malaga Malaga 2
12 AprL Racing S Racing S 5 Almeria Almeria 1
05 AprW Almeria Almeria 2 Leganes Leganes 1
02 AprL Castellon Castellon 2 Almeria Almeria 0
29 MarW Almeria Almeria 5 Real II Real II 1

Profile time Recent Matches Of Leganes

24 MayLCadiz Cadiz 3 Leganes Leganes 0
18 MayDLeganes Leganes 0 Huesca Huesca 0
10 MayLLeganes Leganes 1 Racing S Racing S 2
01 MayLDeportivo C Deportivo C 2 Leganes Leganes 1
26 AprLLeganes Leganes 0 FC Andorra FC Andorra 4
17 AprLLas Palmas Las Palmas 2 Leganes Leganes 0
11 AprWLeganes Leganes 2 Albacete Albacete 1
05 AprLAlmeria Almeria 2 Leganes Leganes 1
02 AprDLeganes Leganes 1 Zaragoza Zaragoza 1
28 MarDMalaga Malaga 0 Leganes Leganes 0

Spain - Segunda División Spain - Segunda División

Team M G P
1 Racing SantanderRacing4186-6079
2 Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La4164-4277
3 AlmeriaAlmeria4180-6371
4 MalagaMalaga4173-5270
5 Las PalmasLas Palmas4155-3970
6 CastellónCastellón4168-5069
7 BurgosBurgos4147-3369
8 EibarEibar4151-3867
9 CordobaCordoba4156-6060
10 AlbaceteAlbacete4156-5459
11 AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC4150-6358
12 Sporting GijonSporting Gijon4158-5358
13 FC AndorraFC Andorra4162-5358
14 Granada CFGranada CF4149-5448
15 Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad4151-6046
16 ValladolidValladolid4144-5646
17 CadizCadiz4140-5743
18 LeganesLeganes4142-5143
19 MirandesMirandes4147-6840
20 HuescaHuesca4140-6237
21 Cultural LeonesaCultural4138-6736
22 ZaragozaZaragoza4135-5736
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