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Almeria

€50.30m

4 May14:30
4 : 2

Mirandes

€18.90m

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Almeria vs Mirandes Prediction Segunda División

Almeria vs Mirandes prediction: goals, form, and odds

The Almeria vs Mirandes prediction for Monday, 2026-05-04 (19:30 GMT) comes with a clear storyline: Almería are chasing automatic promotion, while Mirandés are trying to keep their heads above the relegation line. It’s the kind of Segunda División night where one team brings pressure and quality, and the other brings pure survival energy.

Table pressure, momentum, and match context

Almería come into this game sitting 3rd on 64 points, right alongside Deportivo (also 64) and looking up at Racing Club (68). The message is simple: keep winning, keep the dream alive. Their recent results back it up too, with back-to-back wins against Granada (4-2) and Málaga (3-2), which tells you one thing: they are scoring, but they’re also happy to make it entertaining.

Mirandés, on the other hand, are 20th with 36 points, inside the relegation zone. They did pick up a huge 2-1 win over Cultural Leonesa recently, and their last five show fight (W2, D2, L1). Still, inconsistency is the issue — and away days against promotion hunters are rarely relaxing.

How these teams may try to win it

Almería usually look to control games with the ball, push full-backs up, and create a steady flow of chances. With Sergio Arribas in this kind of scoring form, their attacks often have a “something will happen” feeling. Mirandés are more likely to accept spells without the ball, stay compact, and try to hit quickly when spaces open.

  • Almería key man: Sergio Arribas (21 goals, 7 assists) has been the headline-maker.
  • Extra spark: Thalys, the young Brazilian forward signed from Palmeiras in 2025, adds direct running and chaos.
  • Mirandés threat: Carlos Fernández (15 goals, 3 assists) is the player who can turn one chance into a goal.
  • Midfield help: Mirandés have added Mickael Malsa, plus loans like Siren Diao and Diego Sia to bring legs and depth.

Squad issues and the recent head to head

Almería have real availability worries: D. Chirino is suspended after a red card, and several players are carrying muscle injuries (Embarba, André Horta, Chumi, Lopy, Melamed, Džodić, Gui Guedes). Mirandés also arrive with problems of their own, which matters a lot in a match where defensive focus can decide everything.

In the most recent head to head (2024-12-13), Almería won 1-0. That’s worth remembering, even if this time the table pressure suggests a more open match.

Betting odds and what they imply

The betting odds lean strongly to the hosts: Home win 1.45, Draw 5.0, Away win 7.0. In simple terms, the market expects Almería to do most of the work — and Mirandés to need something special (or something messy) to get points.

Our AI picks: total goals, 1X2, and projected match stats

Now to the NerdyTips numbers for this Almeria vs Mirandes prediction. The best value angle is goals: our top tip is Over 2.5 total goals at 1.452, with a strong confidence score of 8.9/10. The 1X2 call is also home win, but with a more cautious trust level.

  • Best tip: Over 2.5 goals (confidence 8.9/10, odds 1.452)
  • 1X2 prediction: Home win (trust 5.6/10, odds 1.45)
  • Correct score: 2-1 (half-time 1-0)
  • Possession: Almería 61% vs Mirandés 39%
  • Shots: 18 vs 10 (on target 6 vs 4)
  • Corners: 4-4 (8 total)
  • Cards: Almería 1, Mirandés 3

Those stats paint a familiar picture: Almería control and volume, Mirandés still dangerous enough to score. With Almería’s recent high-scoring form and both teams carrying squad issues, the “at least three goals” idea makes sense. Our call: Almería win, but not without a few nervous glances at the clock.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Almeria vs Mirandes

O2.5 -213

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -213
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -222

Almeria is expected to win with odds of -222
5/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -213

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -156

Both teams are expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -385

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
8/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

2.04
xG
1.68
61%
Ball Possession
39%
18
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
4
7
Shots Off Goal
3
4
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
3

Average / Match

1.72
Expected Goals
1.7
3.9
Total Goals
2.8
2.2
Goals Scored
1.2
1.7
Goals Against
1.6
54%
Possession
48%
15.4
Total Shots
15.1
5.6
Shots on Goal
6
6.2
Shots off Goal
5.2
13.2
Fouls
12.6
4.3
Corners
6.3
1.8
Offsides
2
2.2
Yellow Cards
2.33
434
Total Passes
337

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
3
10
Over 1.5 Goals
9
7
Over 2.5 Goals
6
5
Over 3.5 Goals
3
7
Both Teams Scored
7
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Almeria
6 - 4 - 1
Mirandes
Mirandes Mirandes 10-Jan-26
2:2
Almeria Almeria
Mirandes Mirandes 25-May-25
0:0
Almeria Almeria
Mirandes Mirandes 24-Oct-21
1:4
Almeria Almeria
Mirandes Mirandes 25-Apr-21
1:1
Almeria Almeria
Mirandes Mirandes 28-Jun-20
2:2
Almeria Almeria
Mirandes Mirandes 18-Dec-16
2:1
Almeria Almeria
Almeria Almeria 13-Dec-24
1:0
Mirandes Mirandes
Almeria Almeria 20-Feb-22
2:1
Mirandes Mirandes
Almeria Almeria 14-Nov-20
2:1
Mirandes Mirandes

Profile time Recent Matches of Almeria

09 JunW Almeria Almeria 3 Castellon Castellon 2
06 JunD Castellon Castellon 1 Almeria Almeria 1
31 MayW Almeria Almeria 1 Valladolid Valladolid 0
24 MayL Sporting G Sporting G 3 Almeria Almeria 1
16 MayL Almeria Almeria 1 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2
09 MayD Burgos Burgos 0 Almeria Almeria 0
04 MayW Almeria Almeria 4 Mirandes Mirandes 2
26 AprW Granada CF Granada CF 2 Almeria Almeria 4
19 AprW Almeria Almeria 3 Malaga Malaga 2
12 AprL Racing S Racing S 5 Almeria Almeria 1

Profile time Recent Matches Of Mirandes

31 MayLLeganes Leganes 1 Mirandes Mirandes 0
24 MayWMirandes Mirandes 3 Granada CF Granada CF 1
16 MayDReal II Real II 2 Mirandes Mirandes 2
10 MayLMirandes Mirandes 0 Eibar Eibar 1
04 MayLAlmeria Almeria 4 Mirandes Mirandes 2
26 AprWMirandes Mirandes 2 Cultural Cultural 1
20 AprLDeportivo C Deportivo C 3 Mirandes Mirandes 1
12 AprDMirandes Mirandes 2 Castellon Castellon 2
05 AprWZaragoza Zaragoza 1 Mirandes Mirandes 2
31 MarDMirandes Mirandes 1 Albacete Albacete 1

Spain - Segunda División Spain - Segunda División

Team M G P
1 Racing SantanderRacing4290-6182
2 Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La4265-4477
3 AlmeriaAlmeria4281-6374
4 MalagaMalaga4275-5273
5 Las PalmasLas Palmas4257-4073
6 CastellónCastellón4270-5172
7 BurgosBurgos4248-3372
8 EibarEibar4252-4067
9 CordobaCordoba4257-6161
10 Sporting GijonSporting Gijon4260-5461
11 AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC4251-6361
12 AlbaceteAlbacete4256-5559
13 FC AndorraFC Andorra4262-5458
14 Granada CFGranada CF4250-5648
15 Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad4252-6147
16 LeganesLeganes4243-5146
17 ValladolidValladolid4244-5746
18 CadizCadiz4241-6143
19 MirandesMirandes4247-6940
20 HuescaHuesca4241-6338
21 Cultural LeonesaCultural4239-6837
22 ZaragozaZaragoza4235-5936
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