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Match Prediction

Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction

Finished

Alverca

€33.72m

17 Jan13:00
2 : 1

Moreirense

€27.20m

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Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction: Stats, Tactics, and Top Betting Tips

Welcome to our Alverca vs Moreirense prediction for the Primeira Liga fixture on January 17, 2026. With both teams eager to climb the table, this match promises tactical intrigue and betting value. If you’re looking for head to head stats, betting tips, and a professional take on the likely outcome, you’re in the right place.

Team Form, Tactics, and Key Match Facts

As the Primeira Liga calendar ticks into Week 18, Alverca and Moreirense find themselves at a crossroads. Moreirense, sitting 7th with 24 points, are eyeing a push towards the European spots. Alverca, 11th with 20 points, are hoping home advantage at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca can help them leapfrog into the top half.

  • Head to head: Moreirense have dominated this fixture, winning all three previous meetings since 2004 and outscoring Alverca 7-3. Their last encounter in August 2025 ended 2-1 to Moreirense, who controlled 58% of possession and created 43 dangerous attacks.
  • Alverca’s recent form: Three wins and three losses in their last six matches. At home, they win half their games but only average 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. Their attack, led by Marko Milovanovic (5 goals), has struggled for consistency.
  • Moreirense’s recent form: One win, three draws, and two losses in their last six. They score 1.4 goals per match but concede 1.8. Away from home, their win rate drops to 30%, but they tend to control the ball (52.33% average possession).
  • Injuries and suspensions: Alverca are sweating over the fitness of several key players, including goalkeeper André Paulo and forward Léo Chú. Moreirense are without Vasco Sousa (broken leg) and have doubts over Lawrence Ofori and Joel Jorquera.
  • Managers: Custódio (Alverca) and Vasco Botelho da Costa (Moreirense) are both in their first full seasons, with da Costa boasting a higher points-per-match average (1.93 vs 1.57).

Both sides have kept things tight in recent matches, with under 4 goals in 90% of Alverca’s last 10 home games and 80% of Moreirense’s last 10 away. The stats suggest a tactical battle, with Moreirense likely to edge possession and both teams wary of overcommitting.

AI-Driven Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction and Betting Tips

Now, let’s dig into the numbers and see what our AI and the latest odds are telling us about this Alverca vs Moreirense prediction.

  1. Odds overview: Home win at 3.55, draw at 3.555, away win at 3.550. The market sees this as a tight contest, with a slight edge to Alverca due to home advantage, but Moreirense’s recent scalp of Sporting CP (2-1 win at odds of 8.7!) shows they can upset the odds.
  2. AI prediction: The top betting tip is under 2.5 goals (odds 1.5, trust level 6.4/10). Our model expects a cagey affair, with both teams predicted to have 10 shots and 4 on target, but defenses likely to come out on top.
  3. Final score prediction: 0-1 to Moreirense. The AI gives a trust rating of 4.7 for an away win (odds 3.555), suggesting value for punters who fancy the visitors to continue their head to head dominance.
  4. Other stats: Ball possession is forecast at 47% for Alverca and 53% for Moreirense. Both teams are expected to win 4 corners and pick up 2 yellow cards each—so don’t expect fireworks, but do expect a tactical chess match.

If you’re looking for betting tips, the under 2.5 goals market stands out as the safest play, with both sides showing a recent trend for low-scoring games. The away win also has merit, especially given Moreirense’s superior head to head record and slightly better squad cohesion, despite Alverca’s higher squad value (€33.72m vs €27.20m).

Summary and Final Thoughts

To sum up our Alverca vs Moreirense prediction: expect a tight, tactical contest with few clear chances. Moreirense’s ability to control possession and their psychological edge in the head to head stakes make them slight favorites, but Alverca’s home form and fighting spirit mean it won’t be easy. Our top betting tip is under 2.5 goals, with a small stake on a narrow away win for those seeking higher odds.

  • Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.5, trust 6.5/10)
  • Value bet: Moreirense to win (odds 3.555, trust 4.7/10)
  • Predicted score: Alverca 0-1 Moreirense

Whether you’re a stats lover, a tactical purist, or just here for the betting tips, this Alverca vs Moreirense prediction should help you make smarter choices. May your bets be as well-placed as Moreirense’s midfield passes!

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Alverca vs Moreirense

U2.5 -200

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -200
6/10

1x2 Tip

2 250

Moreirense is expected to win with odds of 250
4/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -200

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

No -139

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -125

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
4/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

1.33
xG
1.37
47%
Ball Possession
53%
10
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots Off Goal
3
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.09
Expected Goals
1.04
2.7
Total Goals
2.6
0.7
Goals Scored
1.2
2
Goals Against
1.4
44%
Possession
49%
8.9
Total Shots
9.8
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.7
3.2
Shots off Goal
3.1
11.8
Fouls
14.2
4
Corners
3.9
1.6
Offsides
1.2
2.3
Yellow Cards
2.5
375
Total Passes
444

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
7
4
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
3
3
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Alverca
0 - 0 - 1
Moreirense
Moreirense Moreirense 10-Aug-25
2:1
Alverca Alverca

Profile time Recent Matches of Alverca

31 Jan Alverca Alverca.
-
Estrela. Estrela
25 JanL Braga Braga.
5:0
Alverca. Alverca
17 JanW Alverca Alverca.
2:1
Moreirense. Moreirense
04 JanW Alverca Alverca.
1:0
Famalicao. Famalicao
27 DecL Estoril Estoril.
4:1
Alverca. Alverca
22 DecL Alverca Alverca.
0:3
FC Porto. FC Porto
14 DecL Arouca Arouca.
1:0
Alverca. Alverca
07 DecW Alverca Alverca.
1:0
Nacional. Nacional
29 NovW Casa Pia Casa Pia.
0:2
Alverca. Alverca
08 NovD Alverca Alverca.
1:1
Rio Ave. Rio Ave

Profile time Recent Matches of Moreirense

30 JanGuimaraes Guimaraes.
-
Moreirense.Moreirense
24 JanWMoreirense Moreirense.
1:0
Santa Clara.Santa Clara
17 JanLAlverca Alverca.
2:1
Moreirense.Moreirense
11 JanWMoreirense Moreirense.
1:0
Tondela.Tondela
03 JanWAFS AFS.
0:2
Moreirense.Moreirense
20 DecDEstrela Estrela.
0:0
Moreirense.Moreirense
14 DecLMoreirense Moreirense.
0:4
Benfica.Benfica
07 DecDEstoril Estoril.
3:3
Moreirense.Moreirense
29 NovDMoreirense Moreirense.
2:2
Famalicao.Famalicao
09 NovLBraga Braga.
2:1
Moreirense.Moreirense

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto19
40-4
55
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP19
52-10
48
3 Benfica Benfica19
42-11
45
4 SC Braga SC Braga19
37-18
33
5 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente19
24-16
31
6 Moreirense Moreirense19
26-26
30
7 Famalicao Famalicao19
24-14
29
8 Estoril Estoril19
37-31
26
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes19
20-27
25
10 Alverca Alverca19
19-33
23
11 Nacional Nacional19
26-28
20
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave19
22-35
20
13 Estrela Estrela19
23-36
19
14 Santa Clara Santa Clara19
14-21
17
15 Arouca Arouca19
20-44
17
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia19
20-38
15
17 Tondela Tondela19
12-33
12
18 AVS AVS19
14-47
5
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