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Match Prediction

Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction

Finished
Paraguay flag Paraguay
Division Profesional

Ameliano

€5.80m

21 May18:30
0 : 0

Cerro Porteno

€28.52m

Preview

Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction Division Profesional - Apertura

Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno Prediction: A David vs Goliath Battle in Paraguay

When Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno takes center stage on May 21, 2025, at Estadio Ameliano Villeta, it’ll be more than just a league fixture—it’s a classic underdog story. The betting odds tell part of the tale: Cerro Porteno, with a squad value of €28.52m, are heavy favorites at 1.72, while Ameliano (€5.80m) are priced at 4.75 for a home win. But as any football fan knows, money doesn’t always decide matches. This Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno prediction dives into the stats, trends, and smart betting angles for what promises to be a fascinating encounter.

The Stakes: Pride, Points, and Paraguayan Football

Cerro Porteno, one of Paraguay’s traditional powerhouses, are expected to dominate, but Ameliano have made a habit of punching above their weight. Their gritty 1-1 draw against Libertad Asuncion last August—a match where they were priced at 6.2—proves they can frustrate the elite. Meanwhile, Cerro’s narrow 1-0 win in their last head to head meeting (September 2024) suggests this won’t be a walk in the park.

What the League Stats Say

Paraguay’s Division Profesional is a league where defenses often shine. Here’s how the numbers break down:

  • Home wins: 35.6% (Ameliano’s odds reflect their underdog status)
  • Away wins: 30.1% (Cerro’s favoritism aligns with this trend)
  • Draws: 34.75% (a surprise result isn’t out of the question)

Goals aren’t guaranteed either:

  1. Both teams score: Only 47.7% of matches
  2. Over 1.5 goals: 66.1%
  3. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7% (the AI leans toward the under here)

Betting Odds and Market Insights

The odds for this Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno clash have shifted slightly since their last meeting. In September 2024, Cerro were priced at 1.621 for a win—now at 1.72, the market sees them as slightly less dominant. Ameliano’s home win odds have tightened from 5.25 to 4.75, hinting at cautious respect for their resilience.

NerdyTips’ AI Recommendations

Our data-driven model has crunched the numbers, and here’s what stands out:

  • Best 1X2 Bet: Away win (2) at 1.72 (confidence: 5.7/10)
  • Top Total Goals Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.62 (confidence: 5.8/10)

The AI predicts a tight 0-1 victory for Cerro Porteno, replicating the scoreline from their last head to head. Given that both teams score in fewer than half of league games and over 2.5 goals land just 43.7% of the time, a low-scoring affair makes statistical sense.

Final Thoughts: Betting Smart on the Underdog

While Cerro Porteno’s financial and historical superiority makes them favorites, Ameliano’s knack for defying betting odds adds intrigue. If you’re leaning toward value, the underdog’s double-chance (X2) could tempt, but the AI’s pick of Under 2.5 goals feels like the safer play. Either way, this Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno prediction points to a tense, tactical battle—one where patience might just pay off for punters.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Derby match

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno

U2.5 -161

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -161
5/10

1x2 Tip

2 -139

Cerro Porteno is expected to win with odds of -139
5/10

Total Goals

Under 2.5 -161

No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No -152

At least one team is not expected to score
5/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U3.5 -179

Away win/draw and under 3.5 goals
8/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Average / Match

2
Total Goals
2.4
1.1
Goals Scored
1.5
0.9
Goals Against
0.9

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
6
4
Over 1.5 Goals
7
4
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Ameliano
1 - 2 - 12
Cerro Porteno
Ameliano Sportivo 21-May-25
0:0
Cerro P Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno Cerro P 16-Mar-25
2:0
Sportivo Ameliano
Ameliano Sportivo 22-Sep-24
0:1
Cerro P Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno Cerro P 01-Aug-24
1:0
Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno Cerro P 15-Apr-24
3:0
Sportivo Ameliano
Ameliano Sportivo 25-Jan-24
1:4
Cerro P Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno Cerro P 01-Oct-23
3:2
Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno Cerro P 27-Sep-23
1:3
Sportivo Ameliano
Ameliano Sportivo 15-Jul-23
0:1
Cerro P Cerro Porteno

Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asunc22
35-15
44
2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno22
33-18
39
3 Club Guarani Club Guarani22
27-24
38
4 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trini22
27-22
34
5 Olimpia Olimpia22
27-22
33
6 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameli22
23-20
29
7 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Reco22
29-31
27
8 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asunc22
23-28
25
9 General Caballero General Caball22
19-26
22
10 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luque22
13-25
22
11 2 de Mayo 2 de Mayo22
15-26
18
12 Atlético Tembetary Atlético Temb22
17-31
18
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