Aris vs PAOK Prediction

Thessaloniki derby prediction: Aris host PAOK on Feb 8

The Aris vs PAOK prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-08 (kickoff 17:00 GMT) comes with all the usual Thessaloniki noise: two stadiums about 1.5 km apart, a rivalry that rarely needs extra fuel, and a Round 20 table picture that makes every point feel expensive. PAOK arrive 2nd on 44 points, one behind AEK, while Aris sit 6th on 25 and are trying to keep their Championship playoff seat warm. If you like tension, this is your kind of Sunday.

Context, mood, and why this one feels different

There’s also a quieter backdrop. After the tragic minibus crash in Romania on January 27 that took the lives of seven PAOK supporters travelling for the Lyon match, the league has been holding tributes. Expect a heavy moment before kickoff, then 90 minutes of football that will still be very loud.

• Venue: Kleanthis Vikelides Stadium (Aris’ “fortress” setting).
• Derby history: traditionally tight; by 2025, PAOK had 73 wins to Aris’ 66, with 69 draws.
• Head to head last time (2025-12-03): 1-1, with pre-match prices around Aris 3.35 and PAOK 2.35.

Tactical story: low block vs pressure, plus cup fatigue

Aris under Akis Mantzios are at their most comfortable when the match gets narrow. Expect a compact shape, a low block, and quick breaks rather than long spells of possession. That approach has helped them stay unbeaten in their last 10 home matches, although it comes with a familiar side effect: plenty of draws (four in their last six at home). And with a Greek Cup semi-final first leg vs Panathinaikos on February 5, “fresh legs” may be the rarest resource in Thessaloniki.

PAOK, coached by Razvan Lucescu, usually lean into a 4.0-3-1 with pressing through midfield and fast transitions. Their recent league form has been strong—four straight wins, including a 4-1 over Panserraikos on Feb 1—and they’ve scored 13 in their last five games. They did, however, take a 4.0 defeat to Lyon in late January, and they also have a Cup semi-final (Feb 4). In other words: both managers will rotate if they can, then pretend they didn’t.

Team news to watch

• Aris absences: Mendyl, Álvaro Costa, Hongla, Galanopoulos, Kadewere, Alfarela are listed as injured/doubtful. Loren Morón (4 league goals) remains the main threat.
• PAOK concerns: Konstantelias is a major doubt (expected back around Feb 11), plus Ivanušec, Pavlenka, and Živković have issues. Ozdoev and Giakoumakis lead scoring with 7 each.

Betting odds and what they suggest

The raw betting odds paint PAOK as the likelier winner: Home 4.0, Draw 3.35, Away 2.12. The market also mirrors the money gap—Aris valued around €36.60m, PAOK around €101.07m—though derbies have a habit of ignoring spreadsheets when the first tackle lands.

NerdyTips picks: value angles and scoreline call

For the Aris vs PAOK prediction on NerdyTips, the AI points to the safer side of the result first. The most profitable bet is X2 (PAOK win or draw) at 1.28, with a strong 8.7/10 trust rating. That fits the story: Aris are hard to beat at home, but PAOK carry the deeper squad and higher ceiling.

• Main value pick: X2 at 1.28 (trust 8.7/10).
• 1X2 call: Away win (2) at 2.12 (trust 6.8/10).
• Total goals lean: Under 2.5 at 1.65 (trust 5.3/10).

The goal angle is supported by Aris’ home pattern—67% of their recent home games landing under 2.5—and by how these games often turn into chess with shin pads. Our model’s projected final score is 0:1, with 0:0 at half-time, which feels right for a derby where the first hour can be more arguments than chances.