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Match Prediction

Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao Prediction

Atalanta

€459.10m

21 Jan15:00
2 : 3

Ath Bilbao

€303.00m

Preview

Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao Prediction UEFA Champions League

Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao Prediction: Tactics, Odds, and Smart Bets

Welcome to our Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao prediction, where we break down everything you need to know about this UEFA Champions League group stage meeting set for January 21, 2026, at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. If you’re looking for a clear, insightful story with the best betting odds, team news, and tactical insights, you’re in the right place.

Team Form, Tactics, and Key Players

Atalanta comes into this fixture in impressive form, having won four of their last five Serie A matches and conceding just six goals in that span. Currently sitting 7th in Serie A and 5th in the Champions League group, the Italians are proving hard to break down. Their recent record includes a solid 2-0 win over Torino, a 2-0 away victory at Bologna, and a gritty 1-0 triumph against Roma. Under new head coach Raffaele Palladino, Atalanta favors a proactive, high-intensity 3-5.6-1 setup that’s all about direct attacking play and keeping things tight at the back.

On the other side, Athletic Bilbao (or Ath Bilbao, as they’re often called) have been less consistent. They’re 8th in La Liga, with 24 points from 19 matches, and their away form is especially shaky: just two wins and five losses in nine away games. Their Champions League campaign hasn’t set the world alight either, with the Basques sitting 28th in the competition. Coach Ernesto Valverde sticks to a 5.6-3-1, with his side often shifting shape defensively to block the center and force play wide. Ath Bilbao’s recent results—a 5.6 defeat to Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Osasuna—show a team struggling for confidence.

Injury News and Squad Value

  • Atalanta are missing key pieces: Berat Djimsiti, Raoul Bellanova, Ben Godfrey, and Mitchel Bakker are all injured, while Ademola Lookman is on international duty. Gianluca Scamacca, a crucial attacking threat, is nursing a thigh injury but could feature.
  • Athletic Bilbao have their own woes. Mikel Vesga, Aymeric Laporte, Maroan Sannadi, Beñat Prados, and Unai Egiluz are all sidelined, with Yeray Alvarez suspended. Nico Williams and Álex Berenguer are doubts, making the visitors’ task even tougher.

The difference in squad value is notable: Atalanta’s squad is worth €5.6.10m, while Ath Bilbao’s is €303.00m—another hint at the home team’s edge.

What Do the Numbers and Betting Odds Say?

Let’s dig into the Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao prediction from a betting perspective. The current odds offer:

  1. Home win: 1.75
  2. Draw: 3.9
  3. Away win: 5.6

Our AI sees value in the 1X market (Atalanta win or draw), with a strong trust rating of 8.5.60 and odds of 1.19. The most likely outcome in the 1.19 market is a home win (1), with confidence at 6.7 and odds of 1.75. For the total goals market, under 3.5 goals looks solid (confidence 5.4, odds 1.33).

Expected Match Stats

  • Possession: Atalanta 61%, Ath Bilbao 39%
  • Shots: Atalanta 13, Ath Bilbao 11
  • On-target shots: Atalanta 4, Ath Bilbao 3
  • Corners: Atalanta 6, Ath Bilbao 4
  • Yellow cards: Atalanta 1, Ath Bilbao 2

The predicted final score? 1-0 to Atalanta, with a goalless first half. This fits the story: Atalanta’s defensive discipline and home advantage up against an Ath Bilbao side missing key players and lacking away form.

Head to Head, Betting Tips, and Final Thoughts

While these two teams don’t have a rich head to head history in the Champions League, recent European results are telling. Atalanta stunned Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield in April 2024, showing their ability to rise on big nights. Ath Bilbao, meanwhile, held PSG to a draw in Paris in December 2025, but their overall away record remains patchy.

  • Best Bet: 1X (Atalanta win or draw) at 1.19 odds, high trust.
  • Value Bet: Atalanta to win (1) at 1.75 odds, if you want to take a bit more risk.
  • Goals Market: Under 3.5 total goals at 1.33 odds.

In summary, our Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao prediction is a low-scoring home win, with Atalanta’s tactical discipline and squad depth likely proving decisive. If you’re looking for smart betting tips, the numbers and recent form all point towards the home side—just as our AI suggests.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Atalanta has an unusually high recent form

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Atalanta vs Ath Bilbao

1X -526

Atalanta to win or draw with odds of -526
8/10

1x2 Tip

1 -133

Atalanta is expected to win with odds of -133
6/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -323

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No -122

At least one team is not expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -278

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
5/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

1:0

Stats Predictions

1.81
xG
0.96
61%
Ball Possession
39%
13
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots Off Goal
4
6
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.81
Expected Goals
1.27
2.3
Total Goals
2.9
1.6
Goals Scored
1
0.7
Goals Against
1.9
57%
Possession
47%
13.8
Total Shots
15.7
4.4
Shots on Goal
5.1
4.8
Shots off Goal
6.2
12.4
Fouls
12.3
5.9
Corners
6.4
2.2
Offsides
1.3
1.17
Yellow Cards
2.86
477
Total Passes
404

Overview Last 10 Matches

7
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
7
4
Over 2.5 Goals
5
2
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Atalanta
0 - 0 - 0
Ath Bilbao

Profile time Recent Matches of Atalanta

01 Feb Como Como.
-
Atalanta. Atalanta
25 JanW Atalanta Atalanta.
4:0
Parma. Parma
21 JanL Atalanta Atalanta.
2:3
Ath Bilbao. Ath Bilbao
16 JanD Pisa Pisa.
1:1
Atalanta. Atalanta
10 JanW Atalanta Atalanta.
2:0
Torino. Torino
07 JanW Bologna Bologna.
0:2
Atalanta. Atalanta
03 JanW Atalanta Atalanta.
1:0
AS Roma. AS Roma
28 DecL Atalanta Atalanta.
0:1
Inter. Inter
21 DecW Genoa Genoa.
0:1
Atalanta. Atalanta
13 DecW Atalanta Atalanta.
2:1
Cagliari. Cagliari

Profile time Recent Matches of Ath Bilbao

24 JanLSevilla Sevilla.
2:1
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
21 JanWAtalanta Atalanta.
2:3
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
17 JanLMallorca Mallorca.
3:2
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
13 JanWCultural Cultural .
3:4
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
07 JanLBarcelona Barcelona.
5:0
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
03 JanDOsasuna Osasuna.
1:1
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
22 DecLAth Bilbao Ath Bilbao.
1:2
Espanyol.Espanyol
18 DecWOurense CF Ourense CF.
0:1
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
14 DecLCelta Vigo Celta Vigo.
2:0
Ath Bilbao.Ath Bilbao
10 DecDAth Bilbao Ath Bilbao.
0:0
PSG.PSG

World - UEFA Champions League World - UEFA Champions League

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Arsenal Arsenal7
20-2
21
2 Bayern München Bayern7
20-7
18
3 Real Madrid Real Madrid7
19-8
15
4 Liverpool Liverpool7
14-8
15
5 Tottenham Tottenham7
15-7
14
6 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint7
20-10
13
7 Newcastle Newcastle7
16-6
13
8 Chelsea Chelsea7
14-8
13
9 Barcelona Barcelona7
18-13
13
10 Sporting CP Sporting CP7
14-9
13
11 Manchester City Manchester7
13-9
13
12 Atletico Madrid Atletico7
16-13
13
13 Atalanta Atalanta7
10-9
13
14 Inter Inter7
13-7
12
15 Juventus Juventus7
14-10
12
16 Borussia Dortmund Borussia7
19-15
11
17 Galatasaray Galatasaray7
9-9
10
18 Qarabag Qarabag7
13-15
10
19 Marseille Marseille7
11-11
9
20 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer7
10-14
9
21 Monaco Monaco7
8-14
9
22 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven7
15-14
8
23 Athletic Club Athletic Club7
7-11
8
24 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos7
8-13
8
25 Napoli Napoli7
7-12
8
26 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen7
11-17
8
27 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV7
12-17
7
28 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt7
12-14
6
29 Benfica Benfica7
6-10
6
30 Pafos Pafos7
4-10
6
31 Union St. Gilloise Union St.7
7-17
6
32 Ajax Ajax7
7-19
6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht7
10-19
4
34 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha7
4-15
3
35 Villarreal Villarreal7
5-15
1
36 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty7
5-19
1
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