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Match Prediction

Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Finished
Mexico flag Mexico
Liga MX

Atlas

€26.45m

20 Apr04:15
1 : 1

Guadalaja

€64.05m

Preview

Atlas vs Guadalaja Prediction Liga MX

Sunday night in Liga MX brings a tantalizing mid-table tussle as Atlas host Guadalajara Chivas at Estadio Jalisco. With just three points separating these historic rivals—Chivas perched in 10th (20 pts) and Atlas languishing in 13th (17 pts)—this isn’t just about bragging rights. It’s a pivotal momentum swing in a season where neither side can afford to blink.

Tactical Chess Match: Possession vs. Press

Chivas, with their €64.05m squad—a figure that could fund a small island—are expected to dominate possession (54% projected). Their technical quality often shines through, but Atlas’ relentless press (46% possession) has a knack for disrupting rhythm. The home side’s aggression could force turnovers in dangerous areas, though Chivas’ superior efficiency (3 shots on target from 10 attempts vs. Atlas’ 4 from 14) might prove decisive.

Where the Game Could Be Won

Set pieces loom large. With 11 total corners projected (Atlas: 6, Chivas: 5), aerial battles could tilt the balance. Both teams average two yellow cards per match, so expect fiery challenges without spiraling into chaos. The last H2H (0-0 in December 2.234) was a defensive stalemate, but recent form hints at more adventure this time. Chivas’ stunning 3.3 upset over Club América showcased their attacking verve, while Atlas’ gritty 0-0 draw with Pachuca underlined their resilience.

Betting Insights: Value Lies in Goals

NerdyTips’ AI gives a modest 1.8/10 confidence rating to Chivas’ away win (2.23 odds), reflecting how tight this derby could be. The draw (3.15) whispers plausibility, but the smarter play is backing Chivas to score at 1.25 odds (5.9/10 confidence). Their attacking pedigree rarely falters, even on the road. Over 2.5 goals (1.75 odds) also appeals—Liga MX’s 46.5% hit rate for high-scoring games aligns with our predicted 1-2 scoreline (HT: 0-1).

Historical Nuance and Derby Psychology

Home wins edge away victories in Liga MX (41% vs. 25.8%), but derbies defy logic. Atlas’ budget (€26.45m) is a fraction of Chivas’, yet their grit is priceless. The hosts will lean on Estadio Jalisco’s roar, but Chivas arrive buoyed by their América scalp. BTTS (49.5% league-wide) and +1.5 goals (69.1%) trends suggest action at both ends.

One thing’s certain: this Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction hinges on who blinks first. Will Chivas’ class tell, or can Atlas turn their underdog status into fuel? Tune in Sunday—it’s Liga MX at its unpredictable best.

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Atlas vs Guadalaja

AS -400

Guadalaja is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -400
5/10

1x2 Tip

2 123

Guadalaja is expected to win with odds of 123
1/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 101

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -132

Both teams are expected to score
2/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 -161

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

46%
Ball Possession
54%
14
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
3
6
Shots Off Goal
3
6
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

4.1
Total Goals
2
1.8
Goals Scored
0.7
2.3
Goals Against
1.3
48%
Possession
50%
12.1
Total Shots
9.9
3.2
Shots on Goal
3
5.8
Shots off Goal
4.4
12.7
Fouls
9
5.3
Corners
5.5
1.1
Offsides
1.7
2.75
Yellow Cards
2
0.11
Red Cards
0.38
321
Total Passes
420

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
3
10
Over 1.5 Goals
5
8
Over 2.5 Goals
3
7
Over 3.5 Goals
3
8
Both Teams Scored
4
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Atlas
8 - 9 - 13
Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas Atlas 20-Apr-25
1:1
Guadalaja Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas Atlas 28-Dec-24
0:0
Guadalaja Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 22-Nov-24
1:2
Atlas Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 06-Oct-24
2:3
Atlas Atlas
Atlas Atlas 28-Apr-24
0:1
Guadalaja Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 25-Mar-24
0:0
Atlas Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 24-Mar-24
0:0
Atlas Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 08-Oct-23
4:1
Atlas Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalaja 15-May-23
1:0
Atlas Atlas
Atlas Atlas 12-May-23
1:0
Guadalaja Guadalajara Chivas

Mexico - Liga MX Mexico - Liga MX

Team Matches Goals Points
1 TolucaToluca 17
41-22
37
2 Club AmericaClub America 17
34-10
34
3 Cruz AzulCruz Azul 17
26-16
33
4 Tigres UANLTigres UANL 17
24-14
33
5 NecaxaNecaxa 17
36-29
31
6 LeonLeon 17
24-21
30
7 MonterreyMonterrey 17
32-23
28
8 PachucaPachuca 17
29-23
28
9 FC JuarezFC Juarez 17
16-21
24
10 U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pum 17
23-26
21
11 Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Ch 17
18-21
21
12 Club QueretaroClub Queretaro 17
17-24
20
13 Club TijuanaClub Tijuana 17
29-35
19
14 AtlasAtlas 17
25-32
18
15 Atletico San LuisAtletico San L 17
20-33
18
16 MazatlánMazatlán 17
16-26
17
17 PueblaPuebla 17
12-25
9
18 Santos LagunaSantos Laguna 17
15-36
7
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