Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Mexico
Atletico
€39.70m
Pachuca
€52.25m
Preview
The Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez will host a Liga MX encounter that, on paper, looks like a mismatch. Atletico San Luis, languishing in 15th place with just 15 points, welcomes a Pachuca side sitting comfortably in 6th with 28 points. The numbers tell a story of contrast, but football has a habit of defying logic when least expected. Will this be another chapter in that unpredictable saga, or will the hierarchy hold firm?
At first glance, this match feels like a foregone conclusion. Pachuca’s recent form has been sturdy, including a commanding 0-3 away win over Botafogo late last year—a result that reminded everyone of their ability to dominate on the road. Meanwhile, San Luis scraped a gritty 0-0 draw against Tigres UANL, a result that showcased their defensive resilience but also highlighted their struggles in front of goal. The last time these two met, San Luis pulled off a 2-1 victory, but that was over a year ago. Much has changed since then.
The market isn’t buying into nostalgia. Pachuca are clear favorites at 1.83 for an away win, while San Luis’ home victory is priced at a distant 4.2. A draw sits at 3.55, suggesting the bookmakers see little middle ground. Our AI model echoes this sentiment, giving Pachuca a 2.8 out of 10 trust rating for the win—not overwhelming, but enough to lean their way. The more intriguing tip, however, is the prediction of over 2.5 goals at 1.65 odds, with a confidence level of 5.0 out of 10. The projected scoreline? A ruthless 0-3, with Pachuca expected to lead 0-1 at halftime.
Pachuca’s attacking intent is hard to ignore. They’re forecasted to unleash 17 shots, with 6 on target, compared to San Luis’ meager 10 attempts and just 2 troubling the goalkeeper. Possession is expected to tilt slightly in Pachuca’s favor (52% to 48%), but it’s their efficiency in the final third that could decide this game. San Luis’ defense will need to withstand a barrage, and history suggests they might not hold out forever. Across Liga MX this season, 46.5% of matches have seen over 2.5 goals, and Pachuca’s squad value (€52.25m to San Luis’ €39.70m) hints at a quality gap that could manifest on the scoreboard.
Yet, football isn’t played on spreadsheets. San Luis’ home turf has been a place of occasional defiance, and their fans will cling to the memory of last year’s upset. The broader league trends offer a sliver of optimism too—home teams win 41% of the time, while away victories occur just 25.8% of the time. But here’s the catch: Pachuca aren’t your average away side. Their recent performances suggest a team hitting its stride, while San Luis’ struggles in front of goal (just 15 points from 15 games) paint a worrying picture.
Beyond the goals, the game’s flow might be quieter than expected. The projections hint at a modest 12 corners and just 1 yellow card for each team, suggesting a match that won’t be overly chaotic. But don’t mistake discipline for dullness—Pachuca’s 17-shot barrage could overwhelm San Luis’ defense long before the final whistle. The question isn’t just whether San Luis can resist, but whether they can muster anything meaningful in reply.
Pachuca’s odds whisper 'favorite,' but football loves a plot twist. San Luis’ resilience at home and their past victory over Pachuca add intrigue, but the numbers—and the AI—point to a comfortable away win. If the over 2.5 goals bet lands, it’ll likely be because Pachuca’s firepower proves too much. For San Luis, this is a chance to defy the odds again. For Pachuca, it’s an opportunity to solidify their top-six credentials. The stage is set, and the stats have spoken. Now, we wait for the players to write the final word.
Read More
O2.5 -154
At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1542 -120
Pachuca is expected to win with odds of -120Over 2.5 -154
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchNo 125
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&O1.5 -217
Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
0:3
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4
-
2
-
7
|
|
 Atletico |
21-Apr-25
2:1
| Pachuca  |
| Pachuca |
17-Jul-24
2:0
| Atletico |
| Atletico |
18-Mar-24
2:1
| Pachuca |
| Pachuca |
29-Aug-23
0:2
| Atletico |
| Pachuca |
23-Apr-23
2:1
| Atletico |
| Atletico |
19-Sep-22
1:2
| Pachuca |
| Pachuca |
15-May-22
3:2
| Atletico |
| Atletico |
12-May-22
2:2
| Pachuca |
| Atletico |
07-Jan-22
0:2
| Pachuca |
| Pachuca |
04-Nov-21
0:0
| Atletico |
Mexico - Liga MX| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Toluca |
17 | 41-22 | 37 |
| 2 |
 Club America |
17 | 34-10 | 34 |
| 3 |
 Cruz Azul |
17 | 26-16 | 33 |
| 4 |
 Tigres UANL |
17 | 24-14 | 33 |
| 5 |
 Necaxa |
17 | 36-29 | 31 |
| 6 |
 Leon |
17 | 24-21 | 30 |
| 7 |
 Monterrey |
17 | 32-23 | 28 |
| 8 |
 Pachuca |
17 | 29-23 | 28 |
| 9 |
 FC Juarez |
17 | 16-21 | 24 |
| 10 |
 U.N.A.M. - Pum |
17 | 23-26 | 21 |
| 11 |
 Guadalajara Ch |
17 | 18-21 | 21 |
| 12 |
 Club Queretaro |
17 | 17-24 | 20 |
| 13 |
 Club Tijuana |
17 | 29-35 | 19 |
| 14 |
 Atlas |
17 | 25-32 | 18 |
| 15 |
 Atletico San L |
17 | 20-33 | 18 |
| 16 |
 Mazatlán |
17 | 16-26 | 17 |
| 17 |
 Puebla |
17 | 12-25 | 9 |
| 18 |
 Santos Laguna |
17 | 15-36 | 7 |
