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Match Prediction

Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras Prediction

Finished
Brazil flag Brazil
Serie A

Atletico-MG

€97.40m

3 Dec19:30
0 : 3

Palmeiras

€213.95m

Preview

Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras Prediction Serie A

Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras Prediction: Stats, Odds, and Our AI Verdict

If you’re searching for the most insightful and easy-to-digest Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras prediction, you’ve landed in the right spot. On December 4, 2025, at 00:30 GMT, Atletico Mineiro and Palmeiras will meet at the Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte for a Brasileirão Betano encounter that’s got fans and punters alike buzzing with anticipation. With both clubs carrying a rich history and more than a little recent drama, this match promises more than just three points—it’s a battle of tactics, form, and nerve.

Team Form, Tactics, and What’s at Stake

Let’s set the scene: Palmeiras, currently sitting 2nd in the league, are the visitors, while Atletico-MG, or “Galo” as they’re affectionately known, find themselves in 13th. But don’t let the table fool you—recent form has seen Atletico-MG unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, and a solid 60% win rate at home this season. Their confidence is growing, and their attack, spearheaded by the ever-dangerous Hulk, is starting to click. Bernard, recently on the scoresheet in a 1-1 draw with Flamengo, adds guile and experience to their midfield.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, have had a bumpier ride of late. Their last outing ended in a narrow 3.25 loss to Gremio, and over their last seven matches, they’ve managed just two wins. Still, with the likes of Facundo Torres and Flaco Lopez (the current Libertadores top scorer), they’re rarely easy to keep quiet. Abel Ferreira’s tactical nous remains a key asset, even if defensive lapses have cost them points.

In terms of head to head history, these teams are as evenly matched as you’ll find in Brazil. Since 2004, they’ve met 49 times, with 16 wins apiece and 17 draws. Recent duels have slightly favored Palmeiras, who won their last league meeting 3.25 and, back in mid-2024, handed Atletico-MG a bruising 4-0 defeat.

Key Stats and Recent Meetings

  • Atletico-MG’s squad is valued at €97.40m, while Palmeiras’ roster is worth a hefty €213.95m.
  • Palmeiras have been stronger away from home this season, while Atletico-MG have kept two clean sheets in their last five.
  • Across their last five head to head games, Palmeiras have three wins, Atletico-MG one, and there’s been one draw.
  • The last time Atletico-MG surprised everyone was with a 2-2 draw at Bolivar, defying odds of 5.05.

Our NerdyTips AI Prediction: Odds, Goals, and What to Expect

Now, let’s get to the numbers that matter for punters and prediction-seekers. The current betting odds have Palmeiras as slight favorites (2.3 for an away win), with a home win priced at 3.25 and the draw at 3.25. Our AI, never one to shy away from a tough call, rates the draw (“X” in 1X2 markets) as the most likely outcome—confidence level 2.0, odds 3.25. So if you’re feeling lucky, a stalemate could be your ticket.

When it comes to total goals, both recent form and historical averages point to a tight, low-scoring encounter. The AI’s best bet? Under 3.5 goals, with a high confidence rating of 8.0/10 and odds of 1.25. That’s supported by the expected stats: Atletico-MG should see about 51% possession and 11 shots (four on target), while Palmeiras are expected to edge it with 14 shots (also four on target). Eight corners and just three yellow cards predicted—so don’t expect a wild, stop-start affair.

In terms of scoreline, the Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras prediction is a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half. Both sides have enough firepower to find the net, but also enough defensive discipline to keep things under control—at least for most of the night.

Final Thoughts: Value Bets and What to Watch For

  • The value may lie in backing the draw at 3.25 or taking under 3.5 goals at 1.25, both supported by our AI’s analysis and recent trends.
  • Keep an eye on Hulk and Flaco Lopez for moments of individual brilliance that could tilt the balance.
  • With both teams evenly matched in recent head to head encounters, and neither side likely to go gung-ho, a tactical battle is on the cards.

So, whether you’re a die-hard fan or just here for the odds, this Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras prediction suggests a close contest, with both sides likely to settle for a share of the spoils. And hey—if history is any guide, don’t leave your seat early. In Brazilian football, anything can happen.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Atletico-MG didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
8/10

1x2 Tip

X 225

The match is expected to end in a draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
8/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -109

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U4.5 -119

Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

1.02
xG
1.23
51%
Ball Possession
49%
11
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots Off Goal
5
4
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

1.12
Expected Goals
1.45
2.5
Total Goals
1.8
1.5
Goals Scored
1.1
1
Goals Against
0.7
50%
Possession
53%
12.4
Total Shots
17.3
4.9
Shots on Goal
5.8
3.9
Shots off Goal
6.3
10
Fouls
14.7
5
Corners
5.2
1.7
Offsides
1.5
1.9
Yellow Cards
2.2
443
Total Passes
389

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
3
6
Over 1.5 Goals
5
4
Over 2.5 Goals
3
3
Over 3.5 Goals
2
4
Both Teams Scored
2
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Atletico-MG
11 - 14 - 10
Palmeiras
Palmeiras Palmeiras 20-Jul-25
3:2
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Palmeiras Palmeiras 28-Sep-24
2:1
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 18-Jun-24
0:4
Palmeiras Palmeiras
Palmeiras Palmeiras 19-Oct-23
0:2
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Palmeiras Palmeiras 10-Aug-23
0:0
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 03-Aug-23
0:1
Palmeiras Palmeiras
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 28-May-23
1:1
Palmeiras Palmeiras
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 29-Sep-22
0:1
Palmeiras Palmeiras
Palmeiras Palmeiras 11-Aug-22
0:0
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 04-Aug-22
2:2
Palmeiras Palmeiras

Profile time Recent Matches of Atletico-MG

14 Jan North E North E.
-
Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG
11 JanD Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
1:1
Betim. Betim
07 DecW Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
5:0
Vasco. Vasco
04 DecL Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
0:3
Palmeiras. Palmeiras
30 NovL Fortaleza Fortaleza.
1:0
Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG
26 NovD Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
1:1
Flamengo RJ. Flamengo RJ
22 NovD Lanus Lanus.
0:0
Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG
16 NovL Bragantino Bragantino.
2:0
Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG
12 NovD Atletico-MG Atletico-MG.
3:3
Fortaleza. Fortaleza
08 NovW Sport Recife Sport Recife.
2:4
Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG

Profile time Recent Matches of Palmeiras

14 JanPalmeiras Palmeiras.
-
Santos.Santos
10 JanWPortuguesa Portuguesa.
0:1
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
07 DecWCeara Ceara.
1:3
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
04 DecWAtletico-MG Atletico-MG.
0:3
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
29 NovLPalmeiras Palmeiras.
0:1
Flamengo RJ.Flamengo RJ
26 NovLGremio Gremio.
3:2
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
23 NovDPalmeiras Palmeiras.
0:0
Fluminense.Fluminense
19 NovDPalmeiras Palmeiras.
0:0
Vitoria.Vitoria
16 NovLSantos Santos.
1:0
Palmeiras.Palmeiras
09 NovLMirassol Mirassol.
2:1
Palmeiras.Palmeiras

Brazil - Serie A Brazil - Serie A

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Flamengo Flamengo37
75-24
78
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras37
63-32
73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro36
53-26
69
4 Mirassol Mirassol37
60-36
66
5 Fluminense Fluminense37
48-39
61
6 Bahia Bahia37
50-44
60
7 Botafogo Botafogo36
52-34
59
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo37
43-46
51
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino37
44-54
48
10 Corinthians Corinthians37
41-46
46
11 Gremio Gremio37
43-50
46
12 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama37
55-55
45
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG37
38-44
45
14 Santos Santos37
42-50
44
15 Ceara Ceara37
33-37
43
16 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC37
41-54
43
17 Vitoria Vitoria37
34-52
42
18 Internacional Internacional37
41-56
41
19 Juventude Juventude37
34-68
34
20 Sport Recife Sport Recife37
28-71
17
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